Learning to Swing Trade - Exploration

[SCF]

Dear LOVETHEROVER,

Swing Analysis of Ambuja Cements.

The share is in downtrend after it has made a Swing high on 05/8/2009.
14/8/2009 and 05/10/2009 are again Swing Highs.

After making a swing low on 09/11/2009, the share is trying to make a swing high.
10/11/2009 is an upday.
11/11/2009 is an inside day (Ignore it).
12/11/2009 is an upday.
13/11/2009 is an inside day (Ignore it).
16/11/2009 is an upday, but failed to make a Swing as high as 12/11/2009.

We have to see whether the share makes a Swing high on 17/11/2009 or not.


If the share makes a Swing high on 17/11/2009, then we can assume that a Swing high is made. We can initiate a Sell order below the low of 17/11/2009 then.

If the share moves down below the low of 12/11/2009, we can assume that the share made its Swing high on 12/11/2009 and we can initiate a sell order below the low of 12/11/2009.

We can safely assume that a change in trend has occurred if the price moves above 89.90. Conversely, we can assume that the downward trend continues if the price slips down to below 81.65.

Swing analysis of Suzlon.

Suzlon has a made a Swing high on 16/11/2009.

It has a long way to go to make a Reversal of the trend. It has to pierce the price of 90.65 to confirm the reversal of the trend.

Buy suzlon above 72.65 with a stop loss of 67. Book the profits as soon as profits are seen. As a matter of fact, there are no great Swing signals as of today.

I feel a safe bet is to short the share below 67 with a stop loss of 72.70. If the stop loss is hit, a new swing high is made. The idea here is trade with the trend. Present trend is bearish. The trend will be reversed only when the price crosses up above 90.65. Until then it is bearish as far as Swing trade is concerned.

 

[imgkg]

it would be very kind of you if you can provide .afl for respective trading systems

 

[LOVETHEROVER4]

sir
thanku for valuable insights as u said if suzlon pierce 90.65 which is
resistance than it will be the reversal of trend though we have to look for two closing above this level and if it resume its trend after making the swing high of 72.6(approx) we will look to short it below the low the of previous in this case 67! Am i right sir?

 

[LOVETHEROVER4]

sir my another query is that where we expect a reversal in pullbacks and
corrections and how are they confirmed means from other sources i have learnt fibbonacci retracement+sma30 or midway of gaps or large candles and
confirmed by bullish and bearish candle stick patterns such as hammer,shooting star,doji,kicker,engulfing etc.
Sir i got their basis accenture but will u light on this subject with extensive
details.
Plz sir it will help many others
again a word of heartly thanks for your valuable knowledge sharing:thumb:

 

[SCF]

sir
thanku for valuable insights as u said if suzlon pierce 90.65 which is
resistance than it will be the reversal of trend though we have to look for two closing above this level and if it resume its trend after making the swing high of 72.6(approx) we will look to short it below the low the of previous in this case 67! Am i right sir?

you are absolutely right.

 

[sankoorikal]

Dear friends,
I am watching this thread eagerly, but want to caution you that everybody is chasing/discussing the scrip which are moving against the trend and in my humble opinion it is detrimental to trading sense / against the trend.It will be fatal to follow the laggards instead of finding out trending stocks in bullish market. So humbly request to give focus to trending stocks.
Regards Sankoorikal.

 

[LOVETHEROVER4]

dear sir
its not about trading against the trend we all know a stock trends than rest or can say pullback or correction we actually look for this pullback to over
by looking and confirming candlestickanalysis than we trade when stock resume its original trend so we try to go through the trend but on much cheaper prices than actually chasing momentum.And in case of suzlon its in downtrend
hope it clarifies

 

[veluri1967]

"To my mind it is vital for a Swing Trader to have some sort of momentum oscillator as a guide. It is all too easy to be carried away by a market that apparently knows no boundaries"

It is worth reminding that the RSI and other momentum indicators do not tell you anything about value. They donot suggest that the market is overpriced or underpriced

As a rule of thumb, as a Swing Trader be afraid to buy above 80 RSI readings and to sell below 20 RSI readings.

Hope this community will agree with me.

 

[LOVETHEROVER4]

sure we agree and some use wiliam%r which serve the same function as RSI OR STOCHASTIC

 

[Jeeve_r]

Hi
Can anyone tell how use the Gann Software. I have downloaded from the site www.gannalyst.com.

Please help

jeeve