India's Economic Scenario
- Thread starter jnj333
- Start date
- only this time it's supposed to be an interim budget)2009- Year of the BRICs?
The only major stock markets recording gains of more than 8 percent this year are China, Russia and Brazil, and Indias benchmark index is little changed.
Thats enough of a sign that the so-called BRICs are showing a resilience unimaginable in the U.S., most of Europe and Japan.
While the evidence varies among the largest developing nations, there are indications that the consumer hasnt gone into hibernation just yet, aided by a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan in China. Prospects that demand will hold up for Brazilian and Russian metals lifted shares of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce 27 percent this year and OAO Severstal 59 percent.
I would expect the big emerging markets to do really well in the updraft of the next bull market, which you ought to be postured for right now, said Kenneth Fisher, the billionaire chairman of Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc., which oversees $28 billion and owns Brazilian and Russian shares.
Chinas Shanghai Composite Index rallied 23 percent this year, the biggest advance among benchmark equity indexes worldwide, while Russias Micex jumped 18 percent and Brazils Bovespa added 8.8 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index slipped 1.9 percent, still the fourth-best performance among the worlds 15 largest markets.
The Standard & Poors 500 Index declined 7.7 percent as bank shares tumbled. Europes Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 4 percent, and Japans Nikkei-225 Stock Average dropped 13 percent.
Global Recession
The Shanghai index fell 0.6 percent today and the Sensex declined 1.6 percent. The Micex added 0.4 percent as of 12:24 p.m. London time, while futures on the Bovespa retreated 1.1 percent. The MSCI World Index slid 0.8 percent.
While the BRICs are off to a promising start, its too early to buy shares because valuations havent fallen enough to compensate for the risk that the global recession will last longer than investors expect, according to Jason Hepner, a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.
Chinas exports fell the most in almost 13 years last month on slumping demand in the U.S. and Europe. Brazils economy may have stalled in the fourth quarter as industrial output tumbled the most since 1992, government data show.
Russia will fall into the first recession since its 1998 debt default after the countrys main oil export blend dropped 69 percent from a July record, according to the Economy Ministry. The rubles 16 percent tumble against the dollar this year has pushed up financing costs for Russian companies that owe $400 billion in the next four years, including $100 billion in 2009.
China Valuations
We need some reassurance in the global growth outlook or wed need valuations getting to absolute extremes where we felt that any future bad news was already priced in, said Hepner, who helps oversee about $186 billion at Standard Life. Neither of those conditions have been met.
As emerging-market shares sank more than developed-market equities last year, Chinas Shanghai index tumbled 65 percent and traded in November at 13.2 times reported profits, the lowest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1997.
The gauge was valued at 17.6 times earnings yesterday after rebounding 32 percent from its 2008 low. Stock transactions on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges rose to 32 billion shares yesterday, the highest in at least three years, as government stimulus measures lured investors.
Chinas Stimulus Plan
China is already getting out of the bottom, said Lode Vermeersch, chief investment officer of Shanghai-based KBC Goldstate, which oversees about 4 billion yuan and has been buying Chinese shares since October after moving to a significantly overweight position from zero holdings.
Premier Wen Jiabaos ruling Communist Party unveiled its stimulus plan on Nov. 9 in a bid to bolster growth in the worlds third-largest economy. Chinas gross domestic product expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from 9 percent in the previous three months. The package includes spending on low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, roads, railways and airports.
A two-month rebound in Chinas Purchasing Managers Index, a key gauge of manufacturing activity, is fueling speculation that the governments efforts to revive growth are working.
The Chinese have huge amounts of money and big bank accounts and theyre now spending it, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and author of A Bull in China: Investing Profitably In The Worlds Greatest Market. Chinas going to come out of this better than most.
SAIC Motor Corp., Chinas biggest carmaker, climbed 54 percent in Shanghai trading this year as the nations vehicle sales topped the U.S. for the first time in January. SAIC Motor is based in Shanghai.
Indias Economic Growth
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. added 18 percent in Mumbai trading as sales rose last month by a record. Indias largest carmaker, which is based in New Delhi, trades for 10.2 times profit, compared with 9.7 times for the Sensex index. The measure slid 52 percent in 2008.
The global recession prompted Indias central bank to cut its key repurchase rate to a record low 5.5 percent, from 9 percent in October, while Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs government announced a combined $31 billion of stimulus measures to support growth.
Indias economy, Asias third-largest, probably will expand 7.1 percent in the year to March 31, the statistics office said this month. That compares with the 0.5 percent global growth rate forecast by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund.
Indias economy stands out when so many others are contracting, said Sandip Sabharwal, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based J.M. Financial Mutual Fund, which manages about $1.2 billion. The government has responded like others by stimulating the economy, but that apart we are still seeing strong domestic consumption.
Brazilian Stocks
The Bovespa index in Brazil lost 41 percent last year, sending price-earnings ratios as low as 7 in October before a rebound in the nations metal producers pushed the ratio to 9.6 as of yesterday.
Vale, the worlds biggest iron-ore producer, climbed as prices for the material used to make steel rebounded from a three-year low in China, where Rio de Janeiro-based Vale gets about 17 percent of its sales. Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Brazils third-largest steelmaker, added 27 percent this year.
Infrastructure spending requires things like iron ore and concrete and all kinds of industrial materials, said Uri Landesman, who oversees about $2.5 billion as head of global growth and international equities at ING Groep NVs asset management unit in New York. Brazil is very long metals and theyre going to be a huge beneficiary, he said.
Severstal, Mechel
Russias steel companies also are rallying on speculation increased infrastructure spending by countries including China will boost profits, said Constantin Demchenko, head of trading at Everest Asset Management in Moscow.
Cherepovets-based Severstal, Russias largest steelmaker, rose 59 percent this year while OAO Mechel, Russias biggest supplier of coal for steelmakers, added 52 percent.
Both stocks fell more than 80 percent last year and the Micex index tumbled 67 percent as Russias central bank drained more than a third of its foreign currency reserves fighting a slump in the ruble. A war with neighboring Georgia and sliding oil prices spurred investors to withdraw at least $290 billion from the worlds biggest energy supplier between Aug. 1 and Feb. 6, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Secular Uptrend
The BRICs, especially China and India, are still in a secular uptrend because their populations and economies are growing faster than developed countries, said Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital.
Emerging markets are the last to slip into the global recession and will be first to recover as governments in China and other developing countries introduce measures to stimulate their economies, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said today, while HSBC Holdings Plc said a rebound in Asian economies in the second half shouldnt be ruled out.
Were moving from a Western-dominated world into an Asian- dominated world, said Griffiths, who helps oversee about $15 billion as the chief technical strategist at Cazenove in London. And at the margin thats where the growth is even now.
The only major stock markets recording gains of more than 8 percent this year are China, Russia and Brazil, and Indias benchmark index is little changed.
Thats enough of a sign that the so-called BRICs are showing a resilience unimaginable in the U.S., most of Europe and Japan.
While the evidence varies among the largest developing nations, there are indications that the consumer hasnt gone into hibernation just yet, aided by a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan in China. Prospects that demand will hold up for Brazilian and Russian metals lifted shares of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce 27 percent this year and OAO Severstal 59 percent.
I would expect the big emerging markets to do really well in the updraft of the next bull market, which you ought to be postured for right now, said Kenneth Fisher, the billionaire chairman of Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc., which oversees $28 billion and owns Brazilian and Russian shares.
Chinas Shanghai Composite Index rallied 23 percent this year, the biggest advance among benchmark equity indexes worldwide, while Russias Micex jumped 18 percent and Brazils Bovespa added 8.8 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index slipped 1.9 percent, still the fourth-best performance among the worlds 15 largest markets.
The Standard & Poors 500 Index declined 7.7 percent as bank shares tumbled. Europes Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 4 percent, and Japans Nikkei-225 Stock Average dropped 13 percent.
Global Recession
The Shanghai index fell 0.6 percent today and the Sensex declined 1.6 percent. The Micex added 0.4 percent as of 12:24 p.m. London time, while futures on the Bovespa retreated 1.1 percent. The MSCI World Index slid 0.8 percent.
While the BRICs are off to a promising start, its too early to buy shares because valuations havent fallen enough to compensate for the risk that the global recession will last longer than investors expect, according to Jason Hepner, a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.
Chinas exports fell the most in almost 13 years last month on slumping demand in the U.S. and Europe. Brazils economy may have stalled in the fourth quarter as industrial output tumbled the most since 1992, government data show.
Russia will fall into the first recession since its 1998 debt default after the countrys main oil export blend dropped 69 percent from a July record, according to the Economy Ministry. The rubles 16 percent tumble against the dollar this year has pushed up financing costs for Russian companies that owe $400 billion in the next four years, including $100 billion in 2009.
China Valuations
We need some reassurance in the global growth outlook or wed need valuations getting to absolute extremes where we felt that any future bad news was already priced in, said Hepner, who helps oversee about $186 billion at Standard Life. Neither of those conditions have been met.
As emerging-market shares sank more than developed-market equities last year, Chinas Shanghai index tumbled 65 percent and traded in November at 13.2 times reported profits, the lowest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1997.
The gauge was valued at 17.6 times earnings yesterday after rebounding 32 percent from its 2008 low. Stock transactions on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges rose to 32 billion shares yesterday, the highest in at least three years, as government stimulus measures lured investors.
Chinas Stimulus Plan
China is already getting out of the bottom, said Lode Vermeersch, chief investment officer of Shanghai-based KBC Goldstate, which oversees about 4 billion yuan and has been buying Chinese shares since October after moving to a significantly overweight position from zero holdings.
Premier Wen Jiabaos ruling Communist Party unveiled its stimulus plan on Nov. 9 in a bid to bolster growth in the worlds third-largest economy. Chinas gross domestic product expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from 9 percent in the previous three months. The package includes spending on low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, roads, railways and airports.
A two-month rebound in Chinas Purchasing Managers Index, a key gauge of manufacturing activity, is fueling speculation that the governments efforts to revive growth are working.
The Chinese have huge amounts of money and big bank accounts and theyre now spending it, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and author of A Bull in China: Investing Profitably In The Worlds Greatest Market. Chinas going to come out of this better than most.
SAIC Motor Corp., Chinas biggest carmaker, climbed 54 percent in Shanghai trading this year as the nations vehicle sales topped the U.S. for the first time in January. SAIC Motor is based in Shanghai.
Indias Economic Growth
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. added 18 percent in Mumbai trading as sales rose last month by a record. Indias largest carmaker, which is based in New Delhi, trades for 10.2 times profit, compared with 9.7 times for the Sensex index. The measure slid 52 percent in 2008.
The global recession prompted Indias central bank to cut its key repurchase rate to a record low 5.5 percent, from 9 percent in October, while Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs government announced a combined $31 billion of stimulus measures to support growth.
Indias economy, Asias third-largest, probably will expand 7.1 percent in the year to March 31, the statistics office said this month. That compares with the 0.5 percent global growth rate forecast by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund.
Indias economy stands out when so many others are contracting, said Sandip Sabharwal, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based J.M. Financial Mutual Fund, which manages about $1.2 billion. The government has responded like others by stimulating the economy, but that apart we are still seeing strong domestic consumption.
Brazilian Stocks
The Bovespa index in Brazil lost 41 percent last year, sending price-earnings ratios as low as 7 in October before a rebound in the nations metal producers pushed the ratio to 9.6 as of yesterday.
Vale, the worlds biggest iron-ore producer, climbed as prices for the material used to make steel rebounded from a three-year low in China, where Rio de Janeiro-based Vale gets about 17 percent of its sales. Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Brazils third-largest steelmaker, added 27 percent this year.
Infrastructure spending requires things like iron ore and concrete and all kinds of industrial materials, said Uri Landesman, who oversees about $2.5 billion as head of global growth and international equities at ING Groep NVs asset management unit in New York. Brazil is very long metals and theyre going to be a huge beneficiary, he said.
Severstal, Mechel
Russias steel companies also are rallying on speculation increased infrastructure spending by countries including China will boost profits, said Constantin Demchenko, head of trading at Everest Asset Management in Moscow.
Cherepovets-based Severstal, Russias largest steelmaker, rose 59 percent this year while OAO Mechel, Russias biggest supplier of coal for steelmakers, added 52 percent.
Both stocks fell more than 80 percent last year and the Micex index tumbled 67 percent as Russias central bank drained more than a third of its foreign currency reserves fighting a slump in the ruble. A war with neighboring Georgia and sliding oil prices spurred investors to withdraw at least $290 billion from the worlds biggest energy supplier between Aug. 1 and Feb. 6, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Secular Uptrend
The BRICs, especially China and India, are still in a secular uptrend because their populations and economies are growing faster than developed countries, said Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital.
Emerging markets are the last to slip into the global recession and will be first to recover as governments in China and other developing countries introduce measures to stimulate their economies, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said today, while HSBC Holdings Plc said a rebound in Asian economies in the second half shouldnt be ruled out.
Were moving from a Western-dominated world into an Asian- dominated world, said Griffiths, who helps oversee about $15 billion as the chief technical strategist at Cazenove in London. And at the margin thats where the growth is even now.
With current global market meltdown, Emerging market has bubble has already burst.
China / Russia / Brazil and our own mkt, all have fallen hard in last 1 yrs.. > 55 to 60%.
For any asset class, that much of fall in value is nothing but Bubble.
That doesn't mean, BRIC will not see its day again. IC are still comparatively strong.
Performance of Brazil mkt depends a lot on commodities, so it will have its own days. Russia might suffer.. but the mkt is oversold, so it can always give a strong bounce.
Happy Trading
China / Russia / Brazil and our own mkt, all have fallen hard in last 1 yrs.. > 55 to 60%.
For any asset class, that much of fall in value is nothing but Bubble.
That doesn't mean, BRIC will not see its day again. IC are still comparatively strong.
Performance of Brazil mkt depends a lot on commodities, so it will have its own days. Russia might suffer.. but the mkt is oversold, so it can always give a strong bounce.
Happy Trading
Slowing but Surely the Economic Shift Continues
G-7 Takes Back Seat as Crisis Pushes G-20 to Fore
The Group of Seven, whose finance chiefs convene this weekend in Rome, is ceding its traditional power to rebuild the world economy to a broader body of governments that now wield greater sway over global growth.
As U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet join their G-7 counterparts, its the Group of 20 that occupies the vanguard responding to the financial crisis.
The shift in influence to the group, whose membership ranges from the U.S. to China to Saudi Arabia, reflects the fact that industrial nations lack the resources to fix the worlds economic woes alone. That curbs the G-7s scope to deliver new initiatives this week, say economists and former officials.
The world has changed, said Paul Martin, Canadas former prime and finance minister who attended G-7 meetings and helped establish the G-20 a decade ago. The G-20 reflects the realities of the global economy. Its finance ministers are becoming the dominant policy-making body.
The G-7s finance ministers and central bankers meet tonight and tomorrow before releasing a statement and talking to reporters at about 2:30 p.m. local time. On the agenda: How to thwart protectionism, overhaul financial oversight and end what the International Monetary Fund calls a depression in advanced economies.
Rebuilding World Economy
Limiting the G-7s scope to act is the fact that policy makers have given the task of rebuilding the world economy to the G-20, which was created after a spate of currency devaluations in emerging markets in the 1990s.
The G-20s increasing influence reflects how the current slump is being led by the major economies, forcing them to look beyond their ranks for help in ending it. Thats a reversal from previous crises when the G-7 was in the drivers seat of the recovery effort.
The IMF predicts advanced economies will shrink 2 percent in 2009. Still, the expansion of developing nations will keep the global economy growing at a 0.5 percent pace, it estimated last month.
The crisis has escalated the awareness of how irrelevant the G-7 is, said Jim ONeill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. Its in the back seat, and the focus on the G-20 is growing.
China Rising
China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the worlds third- largest economy, new data showed last month, and in September passed Japan as the biggest foreign investor in U.S. government debt. China, Russia, Brazil and India together hold about 41 percent of global foreign-exchange reserves. Together, the G-7 countries produce only slightly more oil a day than Saudi Arabia.
The emergent power of the G-20 is a recognition of new realities, said Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a former economic adviser to President Bill Clinton. Its effectively recognition by the G-7 that they dont have the money. The money is in Asia, the Middle East.
Leaders from the bigger group met for the first time in November in Washington and released a string of directives on strengthening accounting standards and oversight of derivatives, hedge funds and debt-rating companies.
G-7 Takes Back Seat as Crisis Pushes G-20 to Fore
The Group of Seven, whose finance chiefs convene this weekend in Rome, is ceding its traditional power to rebuild the world economy to a broader body of governments that now wield greater sway over global growth.
As U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet join their G-7 counterparts, its the Group of 20 that occupies the vanguard responding to the financial crisis.
The shift in influence to the group, whose membership ranges from the U.S. to China to Saudi Arabia, reflects the fact that industrial nations lack the resources to fix the worlds economic woes alone. That curbs the G-7s scope to deliver new initiatives this week, say economists and former officials.
The world has changed, said Paul Martin, Canadas former prime and finance minister who attended G-7 meetings and helped establish the G-20 a decade ago. The G-20 reflects the realities of the global economy. Its finance ministers are becoming the dominant policy-making body.
The G-7s finance ministers and central bankers meet tonight and tomorrow before releasing a statement and talking to reporters at about 2:30 p.m. local time. On the agenda: How to thwart protectionism, overhaul financial oversight and end what the International Monetary Fund calls a depression in advanced economies.
Rebuilding World Economy
Limiting the G-7s scope to act is the fact that policy makers have given the task of rebuilding the world economy to the G-20, which was created after a spate of currency devaluations in emerging markets in the 1990s.
The G-20s increasing influence reflects how the current slump is being led by the major economies, forcing them to look beyond their ranks for help in ending it. Thats a reversal from previous crises when the G-7 was in the drivers seat of the recovery effort.
The IMF predicts advanced economies will shrink 2 percent in 2009. Still, the expansion of developing nations will keep the global economy growing at a 0.5 percent pace, it estimated last month.
The crisis has escalated the awareness of how irrelevant the G-7 is, said Jim ONeill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. Its in the back seat, and the focus on the G-20 is growing.
China Rising
China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the worlds third- largest economy, new data showed last month, and in September passed Japan as the biggest foreign investor in U.S. government debt. China, Russia, Brazil and India together hold about 41 percent of global foreign-exchange reserves. Together, the G-7 countries produce only slightly more oil a day than Saudi Arabia.
The emergent power of the G-20 is a recognition of new realities, said Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a former economic adviser to President Bill Clinton. Its effectively recognition by the G-7 that they dont have the money. The money is in Asia, the Middle East.
Leaders from the bigger group met for the first time in November in Washington and released a string of directives on strengthening accounting standards and oversight of derivatives, hedge funds and debt-rating companies.
Discounting macros till end-March my base case for the Sensex now is 7500
Technicals still point to much lower lvls though.
The only way 'the twain can meet' is if we have a sustained rally (both price & time wise with time being as important if not more impt than price)
If not (obviously) the hypothesis falls apart & things will be much worse than it appears now.
Technicals still point to much lower lvls though.
The only way 'the twain can meet' is if we have a sustained rally (both price & time wise with time being as important if not more impt than price)
If not (obviously) the hypothesis falls apart & things will be much worse than it appears now.
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