Index Analysis - Nifty & Bank Nifty

[anil_s_trivedi]

just like CAPF ?

Dear Raviji,

Its a below avg consolidation...no doubt...but if you observe closely the volumes in these below avg bars is also on higher side, as compared to previous low volume consolidations...This is what chart reading is all about...

When stock starts it journey to uptrend from a a severe downtrend, then volume on upbars starts to swing to higher side, this indicate change of trend in imminent and we get uptrend...In these uptrend there are low volume consolidations along the way which smart players used to add on their positions...just before maturing the trend again the high volume activity kicks in...these volume activity is strongest as compared to the whole uptrend,we need to cautious during such late entry in uptrends...as volume signs are already higher so even below avg volumes bars garnered high volumes and reading need to be done closely...

 

[insursi]

 

[sunyasi1373]

Good finding on correct place.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

 

[ravi2126]

Anil'ji view on nifty n bank nifty.. ?

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anil'ji view on nifty n bank nifty.. ?

Dear Raviji,

Nifty breached 50 SMA with above average volumes...As of now its a weak case in intermediate term, only solace is 50 SMA itself didnt turned down as of now...

So for longs on nifty it may have bounce till 8690 or so, but overall untill it get above 50 SMA its a weak case in intermediate term...

Same for bank nifty breached 50 SMA with volumes...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Raviji,

Nifty breached 50 SMA with above average volumes...As of now its a weak case in intermediate term, only solace is 50 SMA itself didnt turned down as of now...

So for longs on nifty it may have bounce till 8690 or so, but overall untill it get above 50 SMA its a weak case in intermediate term...

Same for bank nifty breached 50 SMA with volumes...

Be safe let the rally be more decisive i am still not getting good names in this rally...

 

[trade4putuval]

Hi,

Forgive if this post looks irrelevant here.

If you have been long enough in traderji, you must be knowing tradewithhunter and 315 strategy.

3EMA 15EMA crossover:
It is my observation that If 3ema does not cross 15 ema for a long time, price action will tend to move in such a way that 3 ema crosses 15 ema again. If the trend is still intact, 3 ema will again cross over 15ema again and resume its normal trend.

Last time, 3ema crossed 15ema was in the week of 14th March 2016, after which it was a continuous uptrend for 7 months. 7 months is a long time for a weekly chart and hence 3ema must now cross below 15ema. If that is the case, the price should have a support somewhere near 8200, when the cross over happens. If the global trend looks good, 3ema should cross above 15ema again and then 9200+. However, there ia s concern there too.

Double top formation:
Look at weekly chart in 3 year range. From low of 5200 it went all way till 9119. Then it fell to low of 6825. 9119-6825=2300 points. It bounced back to high of 8968. And if it is to be believed, we are in the next leg of downhill of Double top formation.

If I am correct, Double top formation target is two times the height of the recent low, i.e. 2300 * 2 = 4600 points. 9119 - 4600 = 4519 should be the next target.

I do not want to sound pessimistic, but we need to keep track of these levels if something bad happens. Also we can keep our capital ready and plough it in when this level is reached.

From an aggressive perspective, I look at turnaround near 8200, but from conservative perspective, I will add only 25% to the portfolio and wait and watch, should we see a double top formation happening.

Note: I am not expert in double top formation, but I welcome critical review of my findings. Thanks.

Sorry Anilji, if I was too liberal in putting this post in your thread.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Hi,

Forgive if this post looks irrelevant here.

If you have been long enough in traderji, you must be knowing tradewithhunter and 315 strategy.

3EMA 15EMA crossover:
It is my observation that If 3ema does not cross 15 ema for a long time, price action will tend to move in such a way that 3 ema crosses 15 ema again. If the trend is still intact, 3 ema will again cross over 15ema again and resume its normal trend.

Last time, 3ema crossed 15ema was in the week of 14th March 2016, after which it was a continuous uptrend for 7 months. 7 months is a long time for a weekly chart and hence 3ema must now cross below 15ema. If that is the case, the price should have a support somewhere near 8200, when the cross over happens. If the global trend looks good, 3ema should cross above 15ema again and then 9200+. However, there ia s concern there too.

Double top formation:
Look at weekly chart in 3 year range. From low of 5200 it went all way till 9119. Then it fell to low of 6825. 9119-6825=2300 points. It bounced back to high of 8968. And if it is to be believed, we are in the next leg of downhill of Double top formation.

If I am correct, Double top formation target is two times the height of the recent low, i.e. 2300 * 2 = 4600 points. 9119 - 4600 = 4519 should be the next target.

I do not want to sound pessimistic, but we need to keep track of these levels if something bad happens. Also we can keep our capital ready and plough it in when this level is reached.

From an aggressive perspective, I look at turnaround near 8200, but from conservative perspective, I will add only 25% to the portfolio and wait and watch, should we see a double top formation happening.

Note: I am not expert in double top formation, but I welcome critical review of my findings. Thanks.

Sorry Anilji, if I was too liberal in putting this post in your thread.

I traded this strategy. And i love its simplicity. 3-15 is much more about discipline, traders think its easier strategy and will not get good trades...Infact this is view by many, more complex the strategy more they love..

Infact, this is good strategy for practicing discipline in the market...

Regarding, double top i am not reading that thing as of now...as many leading stocks are just not in topout formation...Let 2-3 sectors show some good sign of fatigue then we can read into...

But yes, caution is there Nifty closing below 50 SMA...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]