From My Trading system: 1-3 Day Trades

[arvind61]

@rkkarnani

Thanks a lot for your comment. Most of the time I am talking to myself here . If 'Views' stats are credible then I guess 125-150 guys are viewing the thread on daily basis. I do get regular THANKS note from a from 1 or 2 and occasional ones from others .

Time permitting, I do give the reason for most of my calls. Mostly they would be Trending (HTHB or LTLB) or trend changing stocks based on DMA/EMA periods making certain shape. I do believe and had statically observed the highest probability set ups(65-70%) are in there with lowest stop loss. I am yet to be convinced about a higher probability counter trend set up. I am researching and statically examining several.

I must confess, I am in process of building a website where I would put all the technical set ups people need on daily and weekly periods. So that people can see and verify stocks which have fallen into 'their own' system. Something I was looking for myself few years back and I could not find one, and decided to build one. And , I was hoping to get some insight from the audience here.

I would consider myself a better software guy than a trader. But I have gone through the process of all the pain over several years now to realize the method one trades need to be in tune with the individual psychological make up of the trader. It would be an attempt to provide 'cheap' access to updated database and custom algorithms to hundreds of retailers who cant buy/rent expensive software or had been victim of completely opaque experts' pricey news letters.

Thanks for dropping by.

 

[arvind61]

Nifty closed the week at 5944 . I had written yesterday about last weekly closing top of 5946. So it fell short by 2 points to cross it. So Bull power seem to have waned just little bit. As I write S&P is on tear but Crude is also bouncing up . 20 week DMA for next week would be about 5870 so need to watch that level too.

JUBFL has made a morning star on Weekly chart. So Need to have positive outlook there. Though volumes are bit unconvincing there. Stop has to be 1095.

Hindalco has put a hammer at the Top on weekly charts , seems crossing 100 is really tough for it .Could be shorted at 99.5 with stop 100.5 any time next week. It seems it would test 94-95 sometime next week. Should go long once it crosses 102.5, last local top on daily charts.

Jindal Steel has placed a hammer at the bottom with Bullish Bar reversal at significant weekly volumes. Need to go long here.

more patterns over the weekend..

happy weekend..

 

[arvind61]

Last week I had called for short on DLF couple of times for testing of 230 level. Now It has come close to that . It has fallen on high volume on Friday which does not appear to be climactic. This is third time in about last two months that 230 level is being knocked. If the support is weakened enough, I guess a 'bearish harami' on Monday/Tuesday might push it below that. Else, volatility is so high on his stock that in 2 days it would again be knocking 245-250.

After breath taking rise Maruti has given bearish reversal bar on weekly chart. On daily chart too some fatigue is noticed. Now worth looking at employing a low risk out of money bearish Put spread at 1675-1685 level some time next week.

 

[arvind61]

DAily Charts -

Short NMDC -127.5-129 Stop 130 -- Also forming a descending triangle - there is a good chance that base line of 122-121 gives way this 4th time. (Most triangles break on flat side).

Short PFC 193-194 stop 195 - failed to make higher top & fallen below DMA20

short Federal bank -448- 452 stop 455

Good Luck...

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY keeps trading at a level where its testing lot of patience. Its not falling for people who could not buy earlier and waiting. When these people get frustrated and buy then probably it will relent.

Of recommended shorts NMDC spurted by buy call from big fund house. Its not a short now till its above 128. If it shows momentum and crosses 131.5 tomorrow than it may quickly reach 50 day DMA of 134.8. We have to change the stance as the data changes for short term trades.

PFC remains short at 193-194 stop 196. same with federal bank. though it gave decent intra day move today.

IOC could be shorted at around 297-298 stop 300.5

Too many Narrow ranges one can get lost here all NR7+


SRD is for how many days range is shrinking Min is minimum in so many days

STOCK_NAME TRIG_DATE INDICATOR CALL PERIOD TEST_DES CUR_PRICE
IGL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 36 312.85
MCLEODRUSS 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 37 318
AUROPHARMA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 11 197.3
SIEMENS 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 36 561.5
OPTOCIRCUI 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 83 59.45
PTC 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 79 58.85
SUNPHARMA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 8 982.15
CIPLA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 32 405.05
GAIL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 10 339.85
CAIRN 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 23 305.9
HINDPETRO 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH!! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 115 302.95
SESAGOA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 12 164.25
IDEA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 7 132
BHARTIARTL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH!! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 9 320.5
WIPRO 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 10 357.35
COALINDIA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 4 Min : 10 316.45
SUNTV 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 33 426.65
PUNJLLOYD 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 47 53.7
INDHOTEL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 1492 56.7
HDFC 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 12 852.65
SUZLON 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 13 14.5
GODREJIND 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 163 306.5
BATAINDIA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 16 776.55
PFC 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 12 191.95
L&TFH 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 8 78
HINDUNILVR 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 115 573.15
GSPL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 37 65.35
BAJAJ-AUTO 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 14 1827.1
IVRCLINFRA 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 159 19.9
ANDHRABANK 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 115 90.95
DLF 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 76 232.7
UNIONBANK 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 241.35
ORIENTBANK 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 138 257.05
JSWSTEEL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 14 720.6
LITL 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 11 11
ALBK 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 14 132.8
WELCORP 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 93 50.15
TITAN 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 12 274.55
CESC 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 16 294.05
TATACOMM 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 115 229.85
JUBLFOOD 5/6/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 47 1123.25

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY has made a nice white candle today. 6075 is the weekly closing high of several months. Lets see if it can be taken out on closing basis by the weekend

For tomorrow -


Buy hexaware - 84-85 stop 83 should touch about 87 sometime tomorrow if NIFTY does not crack.

Buy AshokLayland 23-23.25 stop 22.5 (momentum pick)


NR7+ shrinking range days -

STOCK_NAME TRIG_DATE INDICATOR CALL PERIOD TEST_DES CUR_PRICE
OPTOCIRCUI 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 4 Min : 84 59.3
MARUTI 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 45 1692.8
AMBUJACEM 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_d_B DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 33 185.25
IOB 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 1493 63.35
CROMPGREAV 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 17 98.05
LT 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 48 1578.05
TATAPOWER 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_QQ_T DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 8 94.2
ULTRACEMCO 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_T DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 1928.55
ORIENTBANK 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 139 256.3
RELINFRA 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 30 401.6
HINDZINC 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 123.55
STER 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 12 98.85
HEXAWARE 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 120 84.65
VIJAYABANK 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_B !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 919 52.35
RCOM 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 30 112.7
NMDC 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 129.95
HCLTECH 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_d DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 753.5
IFCI 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_D DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 30 31.25
SBIN 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 14 2256.8
IDBI 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_d_B !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 116 88.15
ADANIENT 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 48 231.95
IBREALEST 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 13 76.85
RELCAPITAL 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 35 384.15
LITL 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 13 11.2
RPOWER 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 18 77.7
JPASSOCIAT 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_B !! DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 85 76.2
SATYAMCOMP 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 30 114.9
ADANIPOWER 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 24 48.4
BANKINDIA 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_B DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 24 332.35
TATAGLOBAL 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 12 149.05
JSWENERGY 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 35 64
UNIONBANK 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_B DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 36 242.15
UNIPHOS 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 4 Min : 15 147.65
JSWSTEEL 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 15 720.95
GAIL 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 11 342.7
ONGC 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_d !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 85 319.95
RAYMOND 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 24 317.65
SUNPHARMA 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 12 990.95
IDEA 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_B DAILY SRD: 4 Min : 13 132.15
SESAGOA 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 13 164.05
DENABANK 5/7/2013 SRD WATCH_D_B DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 108 91.75

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY tangoing with DOW and keeps the ride going higher. Friday close would be worth waiting for. Would market discover something to fall for?

Top 20 % Gainers of the 2 Week

HINDUNILVR 22.457493
RCOM 18.465607
ABAN 18.401722
JISLJALEQS 16.345348
UNIPHOS 16.240309
BAJAJCORP 15.164877
IBREALEST 14.194465
DABUR 13.464233
IDEA 12.7067
ZEEL 12.500002
STER 12.5
MPHASIS 11.803242
RAYMOND 11.647516
INDIACEM 11.458332
MCDOWELL-N 10.689887
MOTHERSUMI 10.223556
BATAINDIA 9.693109
EIHOTEL 9.68565
SINTEX 9.553475
COLPAL 9.45496

Top 20 % Losers of the 2 Week


CHAMBLFERT -14.868541
ALBK -10.537796
ORIENTBANK -7.9149528
ESSAROIL -7.608068
CANBK -7.6023383
OPTOCIRCUI -7.119474
IOB -6.24072
IOC -5.0593843
DENABANK -4.208311
GSPL -4.1484694
NHPC -3.9170523
PNB -3.8891013
DLF -3.8679578
JPPOWER -3.7037036
TORNTPOWER -3.586357
RANBAXY -3.5318408
JSWENERGY -3.2625213
JPINFRATEC -3.034136
JPASSOCIAT -2.997447
BANKINDIA -2.8486168



For tomorrow -

Ranbaxy could be shorted around 450 if it goes there , with stop 452.5

BankOfIndia could be bought 320-323 with stop 316.5

DLF can again be shorted at about 240.5- 243 stop 245 ; DMA 200 is 230 and EMA 200 is 235 could test either of the two

Dish tv has taken a big step might continue tomorrow - buy on decline to 68-68.4 with stop 67.5

good luck..

 

[arvind61]

Forgot to put the Shrinking / Narrow Rangers

SRD: Days Range has been shrinking
Min : Minimum Range in Days (NR7+)


STOCK_NAME TRIG_DATE INDICATOR CALL PERIOD TEST_DES CUR_PRICE
OIL 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 14 549.1
SBIN 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 20 2254.7
IDFC 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_d DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 34 155
PFC 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_T DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 73 198.1
GVKPIL 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_B DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 9.45
ADANIPOWER 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 109 48.45
CAIRN 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_B DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 25 306.35
MARUTI 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_T_B !! DAILY SRD: 2 Min : 46 1680.85
WIPRO 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 12 351.05
BAJAJ-AUTO 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_D DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 39 1838.65
EXIDEIND 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_d DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 26 136.15
FEDERALBNK 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_B !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 14 450.8
JSWENERGY 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 36 63.75
AUROPHARMA 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 31 193.75
ACC 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_d DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 8 1215.4
BIOCON 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_T DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 18 284.9
TITAN 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 85 276.3
STER 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 111 99
COALINDIA 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_d_B !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 1 Min in: 117 312.25
HCLTECH 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH_D !! DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 2 Min in: 57 751.6
UBL 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 33 769.25
SESAGOA 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH !! DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 117 164.7
ESSAROIL 5/8/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 1 Min : 7 80.15

 

[DSM]

Hi Arvind,

Just came across your trading dairy today. There are too many to really take note of, but in between trades, just read yours. You write well I must say.

Re. Candlestick patterns, where you say many got 'hammered' or 'dojified' is so very true. Today, computers have taken over trading, creating pattern that suck in traders looking for them, and hence many traders fail, because they are looking at something that is created to deceive. Only good MM and RM will let a trader survive and earn in this market.

Re. time frames, you give greater importance to larger time frames. While that may well be true, you will know the market stopped out many a bulls who were looking for the market highs, crashed down to make everyone a bear, and now has the bears stopped out and is back near the highs again. The questions is how many long term traders got this moves right.? I guess the numbers must be a handful.

You wrote about Dow theory and HTHB and LTLB. The point to note is that how many of these HTHB and LTLB succeed and how many fail or are stopped out before moving back again in the direction of the main trend.?

I just commented regards to programmability of a winning system. Because if markets could be programmed just by intellect and software expertise, I would bet that Infy, TCS, EDS, Cognisant etc. would have analysed all the H&S, DT, DB, triangles, wedges, HTHB, MA's, pitchforks and MA's and raked in the money by trading them.

Howerver having said that, one of the best, largest and the most successful hedge fund OVER TIME - Renaissance Techology/Medallion fund is completely algo driven - it is created by brilliant Physicist, Phd's and experts from diverse field (not economist though) who look for co-relation or divergent patterns and trade basis slight edge that it provides.

So what is the answer? Besides programmability, understanding the psychology behind it is important. Do consider this aspect as well - how that can that be factored in.? Good luck in building your system and in your endeavours.

BTW I would recommend you to read the Market Wizard series - I have read the 3 books and it is brilliant and insightful interviews on strategies, methodologies, large and painful failures before successes, etc. Maybe it may help you and provide you with additional insight into trading.

One more comment on your post. When you are giving 20+ scripts list as per a criteria, I guess no body will be interested to read it. Suggest you provide 2-3 scripts that you would recommend and the reasons for it.

My post is made only to provide you a feedback. All the best.

 

[arvind61]

@DSM

Thanks a lot for the feedback.

I agree with you on all counts. Specially the one that no software could be developed which could 100 % guarantee profit in any time frame. Random events are happening in the world all the time which influence markets. It is absolutely impossible to model resultant vector of divergent forces impacting us. Basic Entropy of the system is so high that, trading methodologies some time look like astrology.

Having accepted that , it is also true that by research and analysis one can improve the probability of a successful trade by choosing correct direction, time frame, entry price, stop loss and exit point . HTHB/LTLB trades In my opinion give you better option to increase this probability and smaller stop loss.

One needs to examine and account for clash of time frames. For example if you notice the current up move of SBI on daily charts ..it just creams all the theoretical resistant point on daily charts - the 20 day DMA, 50 day DMA, two local tops at 2140 and 2262 but stalls after making intra day high of 2360 on april 22( a Monday). From there it stalls and traverses down and finds support at 20 day DMA 2183 and goes up. You would notice nothing significant on daily charts at 2362.

Now if you examine the weekly charts, second last top of the weekly chart shows intra week high of 2362 before falling down. That was also the area of 20 week SMA. That was the significant barrier on weekly chart. This I would call the clash with the bigger wave. It could have gone past that too who knows? But it would be good to know that some iceberg is there.

I talk about daily and weekly time frames because they are the most natural ones. There is no artificial line drawn to separate the frames. And , it appears all the programmed software which do a great job of fooling and deceiving us also consider them important.

I would get hold of the recommended reading . Thanks.

On my trading recommendation I generally give 3-4 Max. Most of the time underline the basic reason.

I list NR set up only for information. I feel there is lot of interest among day traders in Narrow Range set ups. Some people instictively trade some stocks better than others so I list them all.


Psychology for trading is very important aspect. One's trading method certainly needs be in tune with his or her psychology. I am going to work on this aspect in my system.

thanks a lot again.

-arvind