Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the Forex 101 series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.
Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.
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Euro Dollar:
The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Fridays report 1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Fridays low on intraday charts, and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Fridays attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.
Support:
1.4881: the rising trendline from Fridays low on intraday charts.
1.4820: November 13th low.
1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
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USDJPY:
Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10
Support:
88.72: Nov 17th low.
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
89.05: the moving average SMA100.
89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
90.73: intraday top.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following levels:
A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.
Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas (or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.
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For further in-depth reading on USD/CAD and other major currencies, visit our Technical Analysis section.
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A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The trend line this move would break is short term and not of high importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would be significant.
A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770, 1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down there.
Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice, whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!
Forex Analysiswritten by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free Webinar Today on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the Forex 101 series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.
The US Census Bureau will release the Monthly New Home Sales Report tomorrow (Nov 25th).
The report helps analyze the strength of the US housing market, and the economy as a whole, by measuring the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts expect last months measure of 402.00K to rise to 408.00K.
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Euro Dollar
Although it broke the resistance at 1.4952, The Euro was unable to surpass 1.50. The sharp drop that followed made 1.4875 the most important support for the short-term. This support, could reverse this drop, and initiate a rising move. But if it is broken, the drop coming from 1.4997 will continue, targeting 1.4820 first, and then the most important support for the time being at 1.4786. On the other hand, short-term resistance is 1.4951, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.
Support:
1.4875: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4820: November 13th low.
1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4951: short-term resistance.
1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen moved in a tight range again, but it dropped to 88.54 this morning which is the same level that stopped yesterday's drop! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 88.97 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10
Support:
88.56: short-term support.
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
88.97: the moving average SMA100.
89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
90.73: intraday top.
Forexpros brings you technical analysis on major currency pairs including USD/CHF.
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Expert: Wayne McDonell
When: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST
In this educational presentation you will learn how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in a easy to understand "how to" manner.
NZD traders await tomorrows announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, on the quarterly Inflation Expectations Report (Nov 26).
The report predicts the percentage change in prices of goods and services over the next 2 years (The future inflation expected by business managers).
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
For technical analysis on the NZD/USD and other currency pairs see Forexpros.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4951 and touched 1.50 this morning, but it stopped before 1.5018. This will be the resistance of the day and breaking it will give way to reach 1.5082 for the first time this year, and may be later a jump to 1.5144. But, exhaustion is starting to appear on the RSI indicator on many timeframes, including the hourly chart, which could weaken the Euro, and lead it to drop without breaking 1.5018.In this case, we will head towards short term support at 1.4981, and if broken, the targets will be Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.4800 at 1.4925 first, and may be then 1.4878, which is Fibonacci 61.8% and the most important support for the short-term at the moment.
Support:
1.4981: short-term support.
1.4925: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last upward leg from 1.4800.
1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last upward leg from 1.4800, the most important support for the short-term.
Resistance:
1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5144: previous resistance from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.56, and came close to the suggested target 88.13 (the low until this moment is 88.19). That is why this support will be our support of the day, and we believe it is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10. Breaking 88.13 will be a signal that the price is heading to a test of Jan 12th bottom, and this years & the last 15 years low 87.10, and may be later to levels that have not been seen on the screens since 1995, like 86.40. Short-term resistance is 88.46, and breaking it would give this pair the needed strength to go back to 89, and specifically to 89.07 first, and may be 89.60 later. The outlook for the medium-term is still negative, and approaching 88.13 only added to the negativity.
Support:
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
86.40: support area from 1995.
Forex TradingAnalysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Hosted by: Wayne McDonell, founder of FXBootcamp
Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST/ 16:00 GMT
Forexpros is proud to host Wayne McDonell, world renowned Forex trading expert, in a unique webinar which will be held next week.
In this educational presentation Wayne will teach how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk.
Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in a easy to understand "how to" manner.
The Swiss KOF Economic Research Agency will publish its "Leading Indicators Index" Tomorrow (Nov 27), which determines the overall economic health of the country's economy.
The Index is comprised of 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing- and sheds light on the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
Analysts predict Tomorrow's Index to stand at 1.85, rapidly climbing since last May's slump of -1.86.
For Further reading, visit the Forexpros Economic Calendar
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The Euro broke the resistance 1.5018, and reached both suggested targets 1.5082 & 1.5144 successfully and with an unbelievable accuracy (yesterdays high in some companies was 1.5143 and in others 1.5144). It looks like reaching 1.5144 will provide a chance to correct the last up-move from 1.4887. such a correction will typically target the area 1.5015-1.4985. the importance of the lower limit of this area is that it combines the rising trendline on the hourly chart, with short-term Fibonacci 61.8%, which makes it a very important support for setting the direction for what is left of the week. But, before considering this scenario the favorite one, we should see a break of 1.5077, then a visit to 1.5015-1.4985 will be highly anticipated. And if 1.4985 is taken, the Euro will fall under considerable pressure, that will initially lead to 1.4919, on the way to lower targets. Short-term resistance is 1.5138 and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook, and target 1.5200 & 1.5260.
Support:
1.5077: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro-term.
1.4985-1.5015: a support area combining Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% for the short-term, with the rising trendline from 1.4800 on the hourly chart.
1.4919: previous important intraday support.
Resistance:
1.5138: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5200: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5260: previous resistance from 2008.
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As expected, and in harmony with the trend, Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.13 , and successfully reached the two suggested targets 87.10 & 86.40. This move has brought us prices that have not been seen for 15 years. It is only expected (and logical), that reaching 86.40 would provide us with a correction for the down leg that started at 89.17, and reached here without any significant correction. Such a correction will typically target the area 87.73-88.07 where there is Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% resistance levels (for the short-term). But before jumping on board we should see a break of the resistance 87.01. On the other hand, the support 86.40 will be support of the day, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend that showed a lot of strength yesterday, and a continuation of the drop towards new levels that have not been seen for a decade and a half, at 85.90, and may be later the calculated target for the broken wedge formation at 85.33.
Support:
86.40: support area from 1995.
85.90: support area from 1995.
85.33: the calculated target for the broken wedge formation.
Resistance:
87.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro-term.
87.73: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
88.33: the bottom of the broken wedge formation.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Expert: Wayne McDonell
When: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST
In this educational presentation you will learn how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner.
The U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will publish its monthly Manufacturing Index tomorrow (Dec 1).
The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states, which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month. The Index is considered a very important and trusted economic measure.
An index value of below 50 usually indicates a decrease in activity, and points to an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months.
A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth.
The ISM's leading quality has been proven over time. During a recession, the ISM's bottom may precede the turning point for the economic cycle by some months.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last month's value of 55.70 to decrease slightly to 54.80.
Stay updated with the latest announcements by world Central Banks on Forexpros.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4897 and reached the two suggested targets 1.4948 & 1.4985 successfully on Friday. And This morning it jumped even more, reaching 1.5082. A return to these levels means that last weeks drop was limited, and is probably over with what happened at the kick-off of this week. This seems to be what the odds favor, especially if we take notice of where did Fridays drop stop (as it is shown on the chart): we stopped only pips above the rising trendline on the 4-hour chart, which is the line that protects the rising trend. Thus, the rising trend did not suffer damage but with small portions only. We should pay attention to the nearby support & resistance levels 1.5043 & 1.5082, because breaking any of them is what is going to set the direction for the next few hours. Breaking 1.5082 means that this rising move has more to offer, and will target 1.5144 & 1.5200. Breaking 1.5043 would initiate a falling correction that would typically target 1.4955-1.4924 and if broken 1.4867.
Support:
1.5043: intraday support.
1.4924-4955: a support area that contains both Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4867: important intraday support from last week.
Resistance:
1.5082: todays high until the moment of preparing this report, and a well known previous resistance.
1.5144: resistance area from 2008.
1.5200: resistance area from 2008.
--- USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 86.40 & reached the first suggested target 87.01 with great accuracy (Fridays high was 87.00). Such an accurate stop at a Fibonacci resistance means that we are still in a down road. We will take Fridays high as resistance of the day, especially that now its not only a Fibonacci level but also a daily high. Todays resistance is 86.99 and staying below this level means more downside activity. While breaking it would target short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, which is an important resistance, and if broken, the Dollar will rise towards the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.33. Short-term support is at 86.16 and is provided by Fibonacci 38.2% and breaking it would mean a continuation of the drop towards the eldest Fibonacci sister (61.8%) at 85.65 first. And since this is the last line of defense before last weeks bottom, breaking it would lead to a test of the last 15 years low 84.81.
Support:
86.16: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
85.65: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
84.81: yesterdays low.
Resistance:
86.99: Fibonacci 50% short-term.
87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term.
88.33: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Special Webinar on Forexpros: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading
Hosted by: Wayne McDonell of FXBootcamp
Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST
In this educational presentation you will learn how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner.
The U.S Department of Labor will release The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report tomorrow (Dec 2)
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrow's measure to stand at -148.00k, a substantial change from last month's -203.00k.
For more fundamental news, check out the Forexpros Economic Calendar
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Euro Dollar:
The Euro broke the support 1.5043 but it only reached 1.4970, without testing the important support area 1.4955-1.4924. And now, it is going back up, closing on almost the same levels that we were at yesterdays morning. Te price tried to break 1.4970 twice, yesterday, then in the Asian session, without succeeding in doing that. This indicate that this support is important, but we will adopt 1.4985 as support of the day. Where the resistance is found at the falling trendline from last weeks top 1.5143, and that line is currently at 1.5050. Breaking any of them would deliver the next move direction. Breaking 1.5050 will lead to a test of this years high 1.5143 once again, and may be 1.5200 after that. Breaking the support 1.4985 would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4924, and this is a crucial support, if broken we will target 1.4867.
Support:
1.4985: intraday support.
1.4924: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4867: important intraday support from last week.
Resistance:
1.5050: the falling trend line from 1.5143 (this years high and last weeks top).
1.5144: resistance area from 2008.
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USD/JPY:
Dollar-Yen broke through both the resistance & support without creating any major moves, except for nearing the first target 87.50 after breaking the resistance 87.00. the current rise is invited to show strength at Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, and if it succeeds in doing so, then a test of the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.33 is to be expected, and if this important resistance is also broken, the next target will be the top of that formation which is currently at 88.84. todays support is yesterdays resistance 87.00, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend after some rising bounces. This trend would target the rising trendline from last weeks bottom on the hourly chart, which is currently at 86.44, first, then yesterdays low 85.84. The trend is down, and the Yen strength is still expected, but we should be aware of the possibility of interventions by the Japanese government that would left this pair many steps up!
Support:
87.00: short-term support.
86.44: the rising trendline from Thursdays low.
85.84: yesterdays low.
Resistance:
87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term (for the move from 89.17 to 84.81).
88.33: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation.
88.84: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Special Event Tomorrow on Forexpros.com: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading with Wayne McDonell
Start: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST/ 16:00 GMT
Forexpros is proud to host a Webinar featuring Wayne McDonell, one of today's top experts on Forex Trading, who will be speaking on our website this Thursday (Dec 3).
In his educational presentation, Wayne will teach how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner.
Click hereto join this exciting lecture. Attendance is FREE.
About Wayne:
Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in real-time.
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Interest Rate Decision
The EU Central Bank will announce the new monthly short term interest rate tomorrow (Dec 2nd).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's interest rate to remain stable at 1.00%.
For more on interest rates see Forexpros.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.5050 but settled for 1.5116 only, without reaching the first suggested target 1.5144. This morning it started to fall and get closer little by little to the first important trendline which is currently at 1.5058. We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target & an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at 1.5101, and only breaking it would improve the exhausted technical outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be 1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5101 exhaustion will lead this pair downwards to test several support levels and important trendlines.
Support:
1.5058: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart.
1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
Resistance:
1.5101: important intraday resistance from yesterday.
1.5200: resistance area from 2008.
1.5260: resistance area from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen stopped with astonishing accuracy at Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, as yesterdays high was 87.51! Stopping at Fibonacci resistance levels indicates that the trend is still down. This makes us expect that the whole up-move from 84.81 is only a correction, that will ends once we break the rising trend channel, and then the downtrend will come back to search for new lows. Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50 is still the most important resistance, and if price succeeds in breaking it, then a test of the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.28 is to be expected, and if this important resistance is also broken, the next target will be the top of that formation which is currently at 88.72. todays support is yesterdays 86.84, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend after some rising bounces. That would target the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom on the hourly chart, which is currently at 85.84, and if broken we will test 84.81. Fibonacci says the trend is down, and the Yen strength is still expected, but we should be aware of the possibility of interventions by the Japanese government that would left this pair many steps up!
Support:
86.84: short-term support.
85.84: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
86.44: last weeks low.
Resistance:
87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term (for the move from 89.17 to 84.81).
88.28: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation.
88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Special Event Today on Forexpros.com: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading with Wayne McDonell
Start: Thu, Dec 3, 2009, 11:00 EST/ 16:00 GMT
Forexpros is proud to host a Webinar featuring Wayne McDonell, one of today's top experts on Forex Trading, who will be speaking on our website this Thursday (Dec 3).
In his educational presentation, Wayne will teach how to use technical analysis to align market and price forces for better trading opportunities with potentially less risk. Trade planning, with the use of moving average entries and pivot point exits, will be discussed in an easy to understand "how to" manner.
Click hereto join this exciting lecture. Attendance is FREE.
About Wayne:
Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in real-time.
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Unemployment Rate Report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly Unemployment Rate report tomorrow (Dec 4). The report is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrows rate to remain stable at 10.20%.
--- Euro Dollar
The Euro moved in a tight range without any meaningful moves technically. That kept the Euro above the rising trendline from 1.4827. We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target & an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at 1.5143, and only breaking it would improve the exhausted technical outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be 1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5143 exhaustion will lead this pair downwards to test several support levels and important trendlines.
Support:
1.5072: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart.
1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
Resistance:
1.5143: November 25th top.
1.5200: resistance area from 2008.
1.5260: resistance area from 2008.
--- USD/JPY
In spite of dropping 100 pips from Fibonacci resistance at 87.50, the price came back to break it, and it is approaching 88 this morning. We might hear later that this rise was caused by a series of small or mild interventions, in order to weaken the Yen. The matter of intervention continue to be important in these areas, and since the Japanese government do not announce that they did for w a while after the intervention, there is no way to predict when and where they are going to do it. Technically speaking, the price is heading now towards the top of the channel that is rising from last weeks bottom. This top is at 88.18, and it is resistance of the day. If broken the Dollar will continue to show strength, and will target the top of the supposed wedge formation at 88.58, and may be then we will see a test of November 23rd top 89.17. Support is provided by the rising trendline from this weeks low, which is currently at 87.29, breaking it would target 86.72 & 86.28.
Support:
87.29: the rising trendline from Mondays low.
86.72: intraday top from last week.
86.28: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
Resistance:
88.18: the top of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
89.17: Nov 23rd high.
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Forex TradingAnalysis by Forexpros. For more Forex news go to Forexpros.
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release its decision on short term interest rate Tomorrow (Dec 9).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Analysts forecast Tomorrow's rate to remain stable at 2.50%.
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Euro Dollar Falling 5 waves & an awaited upward correction
The Euro broke the support 1.4850 and successfully reached the first target 1.4760, stopping just 5 pips below it, and bouncing back more than 130 pips. We can see a very clear set of 5 waves falling from 1.5139 (as illustrated on the attached chart), that match all of Elliott waves rules. And if our wave count is correct, that means 2 things: first the first phase of the falling trend from 1.5139 is over, and that calls for an upward correction. And the second is that after that upward correction that matches the falling move, the falling trend will resume to new lows below 1.4755! Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4806, and if broken the odds of falling below yesterdays low will be enormous. Our targets for such a drop are 1.4724 & 1.4649. Whereas the resistance is at 1.4844, and breaking it would mean launching an upward correction that ideally targets 1.4947 & 1.4992.
Support:
1.4806: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4724: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.4045.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
Resistance:
1.4896: intraday resistance.
1.4947: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139
1.4992: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5139
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USDJPY Standing on the edge!
As we expected in yesterdays report when we said a falling correction is the most logical expectation after a move of the size we seen on Friday, Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.52 and fell to reach 88.75 this morning. It seems that we are standing on an important support, because we have actually touched the trendline rising from 85.07. That is why we will consider this line as the most important support of the day, which is currently at 88.75, and we are just pips above it. If this line is broken, the falling correction will go on and target 88.33 first, and then the important Fibonacci 50% support for the whole rise from 84.81at 87.78. But, if price manage to survive the touch of this line, it will be ready for another jump that is expected to break short-term resistance 89.13 and target 89.75 first, and then November 12th top 90.59.
Support:
88.75: the rising trendline from 85.07 on the hourly chart.
88.33: previous well known support/resistance area.
87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
Resistance:
89.13: intraday resistance on the hourly chart.
89.75: Fibonacci 50% for short-term.
90.59: Nov 12th high.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
