Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY spot

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 23-jan close:

We are on the right track, per the waveforms. SL (read disclaimer first!!!) can stay at 11021 closing or can be lowered per MM rules (10950 is sensible per EW)

Updated counts below:

Disclaimer:
I am not a certified financial analyst. All that i wrote above is only for educational purpose (education pertaining to the Elliott Wave principle). No one should take the above as anything more than an educational post. I am not responsible for any profits or loss arising out of a position taken based on the above.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 25-jan close:

We are on the right track - a bigger confirmation today on hourly chart!

As a reminder, our theoretical short level (read disclaimer first!!!) was 10980, sl above 11185 with a hedge.

A slightly zooed out version (hourly):

15-minute version:

5-minute version:

Disclaimer:
I am not a certified financial analyst. All that i wrote above is only for educational purpose (education pertaining to the Elliott Wave principle). No one should take the above as anything more than an educational post. I am not responsible for any profits or loss arising out of a position taken based on the above.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 28-jan close:

Our count delivering! Updated count below:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 29-jan close:

Our count still delivering! Updated count below (altho there are 2 different alternate counts that seem to have started today, following is the preferred count):

As a reminder, the theoretical short position (read disclaimer first!!!) had been initiated at 10987.

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 30-jan closing:

Our count is in the right direction, delivering!

Following is the updated count, we are looking for an extended 5: (3) in the donward direction (read disclaimer first!!!). Extended because 1: (3)=3: (3)

Aside: an alternate count has also emerged which has taken form of an irregular flat (10987-10815 (a)-10923(b)-10596(c)). Vide this count, we should get a retracement to around 10900 levels which will be followed by a 5-wave structure downward (a flat structure). This is not our preferred count. Because, the correction 11171-9951-11760-10000 was an irregular flat, so by guideline of alternation, we should be looking for a sharp (zigzag) correction from 10987 and not a flat again. So, finally, counts mentioned in the chart above are the preferred count.
End-Aside

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 31-jan closing:

Our trailing stop got hit at 10767. Net profit = 10987-10767-20(earlier loss of 20 points)=200 points (max profit reached was about 400 points).

This takes us back to the drawing board and back to aug-2018 end:

While the above analysis was correct and gave us a handful profit, c of 4 did not go below 9951 and this is where our view started going wrong (or at least as it seems now!!) that the correction starting 11171 is not over. Note that since 2 was a zigzag combination, 4 was supposed to be a flat SIMPLE! We glossed over the 'simple' part of 4 and hence the downward bias. Anyways, enough of post-mortem now, following is the big picture as of now:

As what had appeared as an ending diagonal initially, now looks to be a leading diagonal (altho I've never come across any leading diagonal that has a tapering upward-pointing wedge; it should rather be an expanding upward-pointing wedge. But, as they say, when we eliminate all (read: most!) possibilities, the only one remaining has to be correct.)

We do not have any edge as yet to take any position, so we are sidelines now. (or if we have to trade, then might as well trade the 4 zigzag with a tight SL - read disclaimer first!!!)

A highly unlikey count is here:

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[timepass]

Update as of 31-jan closing:

Our trailing stop got hit at 10767. Net profit = 10987-10767-20(earlier loss of 20 points)=200 points (max profit reached was about 400 points).

We do not have any edge as yet to take any position, so we are sidelines now.

The highlighted line is all I could take from your post, rest is too technical for me

Congratulations on handsome profit. Keep it up, and keep the posts coming.

 

[persistenttrader]

The highlighted line is all I could take from your post, rest is too technical for me

Congratulations on handsome profit. Keep it up, and keep the posts coming.

Sir - I really appreciate your kind words and encouragement here! And I mean it!!!

I've tried to be really honest with the Elliott Wave principle when writing in this thread and hence the so-called technicality Sir. (it's really too simple - EW has just 3 rules and a handful of guidelines and these things taken together analyze mass psychology - really marvellous. All it boils down to how do we as practisioners use it - just like finite number of musical notes make infinite operas. Most of the people laughed at me when i said we should go long near 9951 and short near 11171 and near 11760 but these things have delivered too good a stuff! What bombed thins time is - downward bias resulting from the fact that 10004 was above 9951, as in the later correction did not go below the previous one, in plain language. Anyways...)

I sincerely believe that anyone who follows/practises EW will make sense out of what i've posted above. In the normal scenario, I've never come across as detailed a reasoning as much is provided above (charts and explanation both). I do not see anyone other than you and 3-4 forum-mates visiting this thread

Thanks again for your encouragement.

With Regards

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 4-Feb closing:

Lets try to trade the C of the 4. SL (read disclaimer first!!!) above 10935 intraday, target around 10750 levels. That's an RR of 25:160 = 1:6 - not great but still tradable.

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

 

[persistenttrader]

Update as of 4-Feb closing:

Lets try to trade the C of the 4. SL (read disclaimer first!!!) above 10935 intraday, target around 10750 levels. That's an RR of 25:160 = 1:6 - not great but still tradable.

View attachment 33160

Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial analyst. I have started this thread to track the Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY for MYSELF. By no means the content in my posts should be taken as any sort of advise to buy or sell anything; anyone doing so is doing at his/her own risk. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR LOSS IN ANY FORM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FINANCIAL) INCURRED BY ANYONE.

Our theoretical SL of 10935 got hit. Loss of about 15 points.