FROM THE DESK OF JAY DOSHI
NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 10-09-07 TO 14-09-07
Last week we had observed that market is likely to remain in 4410 to 4534 range for few more days & during this tenure few failure attempts to cross will be made.It made three abortive attempts to cross the 4510 level but could not close above the 4510.It opened at 4466.65 & then went down till Thursday to register the low of the week at 4445.55.It then rose to make high of the week at 4547.75 on Friday to finally close at 4509.50.Thus it gained the 45.5 points on weekly close basis. We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- Weekly wave count remains the same as last week & we would repeat the same in short for quick reference. We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the near completion of five wave pattern. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. In the daily chart below the chart is drawn from 3554.5 till the date which forms the 5th wave of lower degree for the impulse wave from 2595.65 as shown in weekly chart.
In the daily chart there are two probable wave counts shown with green & blue colors. As per the green color wave count we have completed the full five wave sequence & we are now in corrective wave. According to blue color wave count a minor 5th of 5th within a terminal wave is in progress. Therefore a new high above the 4647 is likely with this wave scenario. At the same with the green color wave count a bottom in & around 4002 is most likely.
In the hourly chart below are shown both the wave count of daily with the same color & their expected wave tour in the next week. At the moment their probabilities are more or less equal.A break below 4377 will increase the probability & below 4293 blue count will get negated. Reverse will be the case of blue color if 4377 is not violated.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above the bullish & bearish probabilities are evenly placed. This is the time a professional trader or speculator should buck & thus distances oneself from becoming gambler. However a breach below 4377 or breach above 4515 will tilt the odds in favour of bear & bull respectively.
SPECIAL-NOTE:-With the volatile world market due to subprime mortgage & fluid political situation may distort the wave count to some extent but not much in the skeleton.
Writer welcomes query or suggestions at [email protected]
NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL UPDATE FOR 10-09-07 TO 14-09-07
Last week we had observed that market is likely to remain in 4410 to 4534 range for few more days & during this tenure few failure attempts to cross will be made.It made three abortive attempts to cross the 4510 level but could not close above the 4510.It opened at 4466.65 & then went down till Thursday to register the low of the week at 4445.55.It then rose to make high of the week at 4547.75 on Friday to finally close at 4509.50.Thus it gained the 45.5 points on weekly close basis. We will analyze in the following paragraphs how it is likely to behave in coming weeks.
(1)ELLIOT WAVE COUNT:- Weekly wave count remains the same as last week & we would repeat the same in short for quick reference. We are considering the wave count from the bottom of 16-06-06 at the 2595.65.The most probable wave count points for the near completion of five wave pattern. This wave count has the validity as the rise from 3554.5 dated 05-03-07, has all the characteristics of a terminal wave. In the daily chart below the chart is drawn from 3554.5 till the date which forms the 5th wave of lower degree for the impulse wave from 2595.65 as shown in weekly chart.
In the daily chart there are two probable wave counts shown with green & blue colors. As per the green color wave count we have completed the full five wave sequence & we are now in corrective wave. According to blue color wave count a minor 5th of 5th within a terminal wave is in progress. Therefore a new high above the 4647 is likely with this wave scenario. At the same with the green color wave count a bottom in & around 4002 is most likely.
In the hourly chart below are shown both the wave count of daily with the same color & their expected wave tour in the next week. At the moment their probabilities are more or less equal.A break below 4377 will increase the probability & below 4293 blue count will get negated. Reverse will be the case of blue color if 4377 is not violated.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-As we have discussed above the bullish & bearish probabilities are evenly placed. This is the time a professional trader or speculator should buck & thus distances oneself from becoming gambler. However a breach below 4377 or breach above 4515 will tilt the odds in favour of bear & bull respectively.
SPECIAL-NOTE:-With the volatile world market due to subprime mortgage & fluid political situation may distort the wave count to some extent but not much in the skeleton.
Writer welcomes query or suggestions at [email protected]