*** Deep Thoughts on Market ***
- Thread starter xtiger
- Start date
25 May 2006 !!!
25 May 2006 !!!
Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm.
Success in markets is a hard work, discipline and patience. And above all it requires enthusiasm to succeed. Making money should be an outcome of the process, and not the process itself. The reason, I say so is because I see lot of depressed voices and mails, on how they have lost heavily in this carnage. Remember, if this carnage has taught you some valuable lesson, then that money lost was worth it. Markets always present opportunities, and only prepared minds can tap those opportunities.
Lets review some Warren Buffet wisdom:
It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, and then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, and then the speculation becomes dominant.
Speculation in itself is not a bad thing; the issue comes when speculation drives the prices to a crazy level, and creates excessive froth in the system. The issue we need to learn from recent market crash is How do you know when froth starts fizzling out? The answer is at the first sign of risk which is evident Fed decision, and metals crash. Real estate is another sector where excessive froth has got built in, and I fear people may get even more badly hurt there. Another issue is that real estate sector is totally leveraged, and hence froth unwinding there can be very unsettling for common people. Let me clarify, I am no real estate expert, and so I may be wrong.
Which phase the stock market is in?
The market is in turmoil. Lot of unwinding of froth and value buying is appening at intense level. After intense battle between bulls and bears throughout the day, bears finally had the last laugh, taking the market down by 250 points. Its a tough time for any investor or trader to decide what to do. One day market goes up by 300 points, and the next day it falls by 200 points. When market goes up by 300 points, lot of buy calls starts floating, and when market tanks by 200 points, bearish noises start emerging. What should you do?
The answer is Stay away, and introspect on what you have learnt in last 6 months about the market.
There is a famous phrase Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. Thus, market is giving a clear signal to traders Dont be a pig. Bulls and bears are in intense battle.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
25 May 2006 !!!
Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm.
Success in markets is a hard work, discipline and patience. And above all it requires enthusiasm to succeed. Making money should be an outcome of the process, and not the process itself. The reason, I say so is because I see lot of depressed voices and mails, on how they have lost heavily in this carnage. Remember, if this carnage has taught you some valuable lesson, then that money lost was worth it. Markets always present opportunities, and only prepared minds can tap those opportunities.
Lets review some Warren Buffet wisdom:
It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, and then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, and then the speculation becomes dominant.
Speculation in itself is not a bad thing; the issue comes when speculation drives the prices to a crazy level, and creates excessive froth in the system. The issue we need to learn from recent market crash is How do you know when froth starts fizzling out? The answer is at the first sign of risk which is evident Fed decision, and metals crash. Real estate is another sector where excessive froth has got built in, and I fear people may get even more badly hurt there. Another issue is that real estate sector is totally leveraged, and hence froth unwinding there can be very unsettling for common people. Let me clarify, I am no real estate expert, and so I may be wrong.
Which phase the stock market is in?
The market is in turmoil. Lot of unwinding of froth and value buying is appening at intense level. After intense battle between bulls and bears throughout the day, bears finally had the last laugh, taking the market down by 250 points. Its a tough time for any investor or trader to decide what to do. One day market goes up by 300 points, and the next day it falls by 200 points. When market goes up by 300 points, lot of buy calls starts floating, and when market tanks by 200 points, bearish noises start emerging. What should you do?
The answer is Stay away, and introspect on what you have learnt in last 6 months about the market.
There is a famous phrase Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. Thus, market is giving a clear signal to traders Dont be a pig. Bulls and bears are in intense battle.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
“Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm.”
Success in markets is a hard work, discipline and patience. And above all it requires enthusiasm to succeed. Making money should be an outcome of the process, and not the process itself. The reason, I say so is because I see lot of depressed voices and mails, on how they have lost heavily in this carnage. Remember, if this carnage has taught you some valuable lesson, then that money lost was worth it. Markets always.........................
Dear Nk,
your thoughts are eyeopener,please continue posting your valuable lessons.Wise men will take it & wait till this market turmoil subsides.I hope people are staying away from the choppy waters.
Engel
Success in markets is a hard work, discipline and patience. And above all it requires enthusiasm to succeed. Making money should be an outcome of the process, and not the process itself. The reason, I say so is because I see lot of depressed voices and mails, on how they have lost heavily in this carnage. Remember, if this carnage has taught you some valuable lesson, then that money lost was worth it. Markets always.........................
Dear Nk,
your thoughts are eyeopener,please continue posting your valuable lessons.Wise men will take it & wait till this market turmoil subsides.I hope people are staying away from the choppy waters.
Engel
26 May 2006 !!!
26 May 2006 !!!
This post is not a signal to buy : -
It’s a bright morning if you are bulls, and very bad morning, if you are bear. Global Asset markets are rallying in unison, be it US, Asia, Commodity, Crude, and Gold. It’s a strong bounce back from oversold equity markets across the world. Remember, few days back I mentioned in my newsletter, never carry futures position overnight – Sentiments can change overnight from bearish to bullish and vice-versa.
Now, let me explain a small issue which I have been confronting since last many months –
Why all asset classes were rallying at the same time, and now declining at the same time?
Few months back, I used to wonder why every asset class be it crude, gold, commodities, stocks, bonds and real estate are rallying at the same time. It used to sound absurd. And suddenly, after latest inflation report in US, every asset class has started declining, which again is perplexing. We all have studied – corelation coefficient – that some assets are negatively correlated. If one rallies, the other should decline. Why it’s irrelevant in today’s time?
The most confusing behavior is of Gold. The metal is the classic inflation hedge, and yet gold sold off, on back of threat of inflation. So what is happening all of a sudden? Why is Gold falling? It means we are missing some other piece of puzzle.
I am not a great economist who can understand how all the pieces of the moving parts come together – but common sense points me to this direction – Global money supply is tightening – and is becoming expensive to speculate (interest rates are rising). As a result, a large speculative unwinding is happening across all asset classes especially where a phenomenal bull run has happened. You take any economy across the world, and you hear the news of rise of interest rates, and money supply tightening. And so, the same logic by which all asset classes were rising at the same time applies to why all are declining at the same time.
We have been in global liquidity boom since last four-five years with US and Japan, two large economies having negligible interest rates. The liquidity boom led to surge in asset prices across the world. It became cheaper to speculate, and take the prices to astronomical heights be it real estate, stocks or commodities. Central bank policies around the world made it easier to maintain lifestyles with debt. USA is a shining example of personal consumption and debt. This is what I say is Central Bank’s job – first create inflation, and then fight with it.
We need money tankers, as money supply is gone.
FIIs were net sellers yesterday, when our market rallied by 93 points. But how long we can sustain ourselves on small domestic liquidity?
Earlier, the money supply tap was fully open, and now economies across the world are slowly closing the tap. During the first wave of selling we saw after May 11, the financial markets, across the world, were adjusting to new fundamental conditions of change in global liquidity. What we saw in India – was the impact of slowing down the liquidity tap. It looks like the way we are solving the water supply problem in cities, the same way, we will have to solve liquidity problem in our markets – Where are the tankers?
We need new inflows of cash to keep the economic momentum moving. We need strong institutional money (tankers) for our financial sector. One of the ways is pension sector reforms. FM, are you listening?
Outlook for the day:
Bullish Start
The entire equity market across the globe is rallying, and rallying strongly. Why I will tell you little later. We may rally even stronger. I am really concerned about bears. Nifty June futures yesterday closed at a steep discount of 83 points over spot closing of 3177. This discount may make this rally ever stronger. Bears can take solace from the fact that FIIs continue to sell. They were net sellers yesterday.
Asian markets have opened stronger, and most of them are up by 1 to 2% taking cue from US market. Remember, we are living in an era of instant price discovery, which means we may have a gap up opening of 50-100 points.
Indian market will open gap up by 50 points, and may rally through out the day, but it would be interesting to watch last one hour of trade. Will bull have the conviction to hold the long position through the weekend, considering that we are so sensitive to world economic data?
What is the trigger for this global equity rally?
The U.S. Commerce Department revised GDP growth in the first quarter higher, from an annual rate of 4.8% to 5.3%, less than expected, but still strong. This is just a piece of economic data which can be construed positively, that US economy still has momentum.
Does this change anything fundamentally?
I don’t think so.
The equity markets across the world have become very sensitive to economic data. The reason – US Fed has said that next rate hike will depend on economic data.
Is Bull market back?
I don’t know.
What I know – Global equity market is very nervous and has no clue on the economic direction the world is taking. It will always react strongly and differently to every piece of economic news. It means, on positive news, the market will rally strongly, and on negative news, it may fall very strongly. This may continue till some consensus emerges on World economic growth outlook – How price rise across different asset class will impact the world economy? FII’s were net sellers yesterday, when our market rallied by 90 points.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
26 May 2006 !!!
This post is not a signal to buy : -
It’s a bright morning if you are bulls, and very bad morning, if you are bear. Global Asset markets are rallying in unison, be it US, Asia, Commodity, Crude, and Gold. It’s a strong bounce back from oversold equity markets across the world. Remember, few days back I mentioned in my newsletter, never carry futures position overnight – Sentiments can change overnight from bearish to bullish and vice-versa.
Now, let me explain a small issue which I have been confronting since last many months –
Why all asset classes were rallying at the same time, and now declining at the same time?
Few months back, I used to wonder why every asset class be it crude, gold, commodities, stocks, bonds and real estate are rallying at the same time. It used to sound absurd. And suddenly, after latest inflation report in US, every asset class has started declining, which again is perplexing. We all have studied – corelation coefficient – that some assets are negatively correlated. If one rallies, the other should decline. Why it’s irrelevant in today’s time?
The most confusing behavior is of Gold. The metal is the classic inflation hedge, and yet gold sold off, on back of threat of inflation. So what is happening all of a sudden? Why is Gold falling? It means we are missing some other piece of puzzle.
I am not a great economist who can understand how all the pieces of the moving parts come together – but common sense points me to this direction – Global money supply is tightening – and is becoming expensive to speculate (interest rates are rising). As a result, a large speculative unwinding is happening across all asset classes especially where a phenomenal bull run has happened. You take any economy across the world, and you hear the news of rise of interest rates, and money supply tightening. And so, the same logic by which all asset classes were rising at the same time applies to why all are declining at the same time.
We have been in global liquidity boom since last four-five years with US and Japan, two large economies having negligible interest rates. The liquidity boom led to surge in asset prices across the world. It became cheaper to speculate, and take the prices to astronomical heights be it real estate, stocks or commodities. Central bank policies around the world made it easier to maintain lifestyles with debt. USA is a shining example of personal consumption and debt. This is what I say is Central Bank’s job – first create inflation, and then fight with it.
We need money tankers, as money supply is gone.
FIIs were net sellers yesterday, when our market rallied by 93 points. But how long we can sustain ourselves on small domestic liquidity?
Earlier, the money supply tap was fully open, and now economies across the world are slowly closing the tap. During the first wave of selling we saw after May 11, the financial markets, across the world, were adjusting to new fundamental conditions of change in global liquidity. What we saw in India – was the impact of slowing down the liquidity tap. It looks like the way we are solving the water supply problem in cities, the same way, we will have to solve liquidity problem in our markets – Where are the tankers?
We need new inflows of cash to keep the economic momentum moving. We need strong institutional money (tankers) for our financial sector. One of the ways is pension sector reforms. FM, are you listening?
Outlook for the day:
Bullish Start
The entire equity market across the globe is rallying, and rallying strongly. Why I will tell you little later. We may rally even stronger. I am really concerned about bears. Nifty June futures yesterday closed at a steep discount of 83 points over spot closing of 3177. This discount may make this rally ever stronger. Bears can take solace from the fact that FIIs continue to sell. They were net sellers yesterday.
Asian markets have opened stronger, and most of them are up by 1 to 2% taking cue from US market. Remember, we are living in an era of instant price discovery, which means we may have a gap up opening of 50-100 points.
Indian market will open gap up by 50 points, and may rally through out the day, but it would be interesting to watch last one hour of trade. Will bull have the conviction to hold the long position through the weekend, considering that we are so sensitive to world economic data?
What is the trigger for this global equity rally?
The U.S. Commerce Department revised GDP growth in the first quarter higher, from an annual rate of 4.8% to 5.3%, less than expected, but still strong. This is just a piece of economic data which can be construed positively, that US economy still has momentum.
Does this change anything fundamentally?
I don’t think so.
The equity markets across the world have become very sensitive to economic data. The reason – US Fed has said that next rate hike will depend on economic data.
Is Bull market back?
I don’t know.
What I know – Global equity market is very nervous and has no clue on the economic direction the world is taking. It will always react strongly and differently to every piece of economic news. It means, on positive news, the market will rally strongly, and on negative news, it may fall very strongly. This may continue till some consensus emerges on World economic growth outlook – How price rise across different asset class will impact the world economy? FII’s were net sellers yesterday, when our market rallied by 90 points.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
Last edited:
01 June 2006 !!!
01 June 2006
FIIs Are Buying Mutual Funds Units
FII top Net sales of Rs 7,352.20 crore in May
Read this article carefully. It could provide you with a perspective you never imagined before.
The purpose of this hypothesis is not to define how markets will move tomorrow or the day after, but to highlight a possibility that belies the current state of the market: Things are not quite as menacing as they seem.
Perhaps Chidambaram is right; the Indian economy is on track, nothing has changed in the fundamentals, but somehow I suspect that the Finance Minister is not disclosing everything. Behind the obvious calm face is a machiavellian mind devising a scheme whose goal is as yet not known. One would suspect aggrandizement for the party with a view to elections in 2 years.
Why are FIIs selling so heavily?
According to Sebi, FIIs sold Rs 7,354.20 crore in May, roughly $1.6 billon. Looking at past behavior and also the quantum of investments made in 2005 in to the Indian markst, about $1 billion is normal and expected to move out.
However, the discrepancy between NSE and Sebi figures belies the muted optimism that exists under this whole panic situation.
NSE figures for FIIs, derived mainly out of orders punched in by brokers on NSE and BSE terminals, show that on May 29, 2006, FII clocked net sales of Rs 116.42 crore, while Sebi figures indicate Rs 81 crore. For May 30, 2006, NSE shows net sales of Rs 262 crore, while Sebi shows net sales of Rs 8 crore.
My view is that FIIs have turned to some other equity investments in India, not necessarily in the purview of the stock markets. Just read what Sebi means by FII figures:
Data pertains to all the activities undertaken by FIIs in Indian Securities Market, including trades done in secondary market, primary market and activities involved in right/bonus issues, private placement, merger & acquisition etc.
The etcetera is not defined or stated. Sebi needs to clarify this to all investors.
The difference between the Sebi and NSE figures, means FIIs pumped Rs 772 crore in the last two days in to primary marketshow about the DLF IPO?or did private placements or M&As.
So, where did this money go? Could the FIIs have considered the FMs penchant for mutual funds, and poured money in there? I would not know if this is a wise move for FIIs, but the FII FAQs on Sebi.com clearly state that FIIs can in fact invest in units of Mutual funds.
Finally, the sell-off could also be the precedent to the opening up of FDI in retail and real estate. Money has gone out back to the original backers of these FIIs, and could re-enter as FDI in the country. A lot of FIIs would want to give profits back to their investors, and then encourage them to invest in another fund that does FDI investments. While this possibility does not work in favor of the bourses, it certainly does in favor of the Indian economy.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
courtesy: Ray Seth
01 June 2006
FIIs Are Buying Mutual Funds Units
FII top Net sales of Rs 7,352.20 crore in May
Read this article carefully. It could provide you with a perspective you never imagined before.
The purpose of this hypothesis is not to define how markets will move tomorrow or the day after, but to highlight a possibility that belies the current state of the market: Things are not quite as menacing as they seem.
Perhaps Chidambaram is right; the Indian economy is on track, nothing has changed in the fundamentals, but somehow I suspect that the Finance Minister is not disclosing everything. Behind the obvious calm face is a machiavellian mind devising a scheme whose goal is as yet not known. One would suspect aggrandizement for the party with a view to elections in 2 years.
Why are FIIs selling so heavily?
According to Sebi, FIIs sold Rs 7,354.20 crore in May, roughly $1.6 billon. Looking at past behavior and also the quantum of investments made in 2005 in to the Indian markst, about $1 billion is normal and expected to move out.
However, the discrepancy between NSE and Sebi figures belies the muted optimism that exists under this whole panic situation.
NSE figures for FIIs, derived mainly out of orders punched in by brokers on NSE and BSE terminals, show that on May 29, 2006, FII clocked net sales of Rs 116.42 crore, while Sebi figures indicate Rs 81 crore. For May 30, 2006, NSE shows net sales of Rs 262 crore, while Sebi shows net sales of Rs 8 crore.
My view is that FIIs have turned to some other equity investments in India, not necessarily in the purview of the stock markets. Just read what Sebi means by FII figures:
Data pertains to all the activities undertaken by FIIs in Indian Securities Market, including trades done in secondary market, primary market and activities involved in right/bonus issues, private placement, merger & acquisition etc.
The etcetera is not defined or stated. Sebi needs to clarify this to all investors.
The difference between the Sebi and NSE figures, means FIIs pumped Rs 772 crore in the last two days in to primary marketshow about the DLF IPO?or did private placements or M&As.
So, where did this money go? Could the FIIs have considered the FMs penchant for mutual funds, and poured money in there? I would not know if this is a wise move for FIIs, but the FII FAQs on Sebi.com clearly state that FIIs can in fact invest in units of Mutual funds.
Finally, the sell-off could also be the precedent to the opening up of FDI in retail and real estate. Money has gone out back to the original backers of these FIIs, and could re-enter as FDI in the country. A lot of FIIs would want to give profits back to their investors, and then encourage them to invest in another fund that does FDI investments. While this possibility does not work in favor of the bourses, it certainly does in favor of the Indian economy.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
courtesy: Ray Seth
Hi nkp
I am glad that you pointed out a source of data for FII activities.
The point is well taken.
Muted optimism or outright passimism. We need to track them more closely as they seem to dictate TA/FA more then any thing else.
In so far as stock markets are concerned , their activities will only provide a strong indication for the return of the prodigal.
regards
Pankaj
I am glad that you pointed out a source of data for FII activities.
The point is well taken.
Muted optimism or outright passimism. We need to track them more closely as they seem to dictate TA/FA more then any thing else.
In so far as stock markets are concerned , their activities will only provide a strong indication for the return of the prodigal.
regards
Pankaj
May 2006: Fool's Paradise
May 2006 was an awful month, with the Sensex falling 22% in 12 days, from 12658 to 9826, and the Nifty, the NSE index, slipping 23%, from 3772 to 2894. They subsequently recovered, but the fall marked an important change in the unbridled run of the Indian stock markets.
Characteristically of secular bull runs, the corrective fall was rapid and, for the agape bulls, without respite. Millions watched as their capital eroded, and disappeared especially those leveraged long in the stock futures and options segments. For the first time, in the last 2 years, was an intra-day circuit brought in to play, since the indices fell 10%the maximum limit they are allowed toand trading was suspended for 1 hour. The last time this happened was May 17, 2004, when the Congress-led UPA government came in to power.
Just a few days ago, everything about India was glowing, and within a week it appeared as if nothing was right. Every bit of positive news was ignored. Theories abound that the fall was anticipated because the index had run ahead of fundamentals or were linked to FIIs moving out of emerging markets.
When it was all over and done with, some important ideas came to fore:
1. No matter how good the fundamentals, markets will always fall
2. Indian markets are purely liquidity driven
3. Indian markets are now inextricably linked to the owners of this liquidityFIIsand since most of them originate in the US, the developments in the US economy will have a strong bearing on their behavior in India.
4. How the government of India taxes these FIIs would drive the Indian markets
5. FIIs are now not just investors but also traders (hedge funds)
Quite emphatically, the Indian markets are directly linked to the larger fate of the US markets.
Fundamentals are good up to a point, but beyond this, it is all about hot money chasing hot stocks, and hot money originates in the US.
FIIs have about $35 billion invested in India, and point to note is the current fall was a result of a mere $1.8 billion moving out. Now imagine if $5 billion did!
With this in mind, it has thus become important for Indian investors to watch inflation and short-term interest rates in the US. A buzzing US economy is good, but too much of the buzz would drive up inflation due to rising real estate, commodity and energy prices. Real estate is already slowing down, but oil and energy continues to be high.
In so far, the Fed has increased interest rates 16 times in a row, taking it to 5% in May, 2006, however recent numbers indicate that the US economy could be halting. The possibility of rates being hiked once again in June to 5.25%, has raised its ugly head sending investors scampering.
The reason such small indicators are lapped up eagerly is because the Fed has said that it is unsure of what to do in the current scenario, and its policy makers are watching the economic numbers just like everyone else. So, cues in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Department of Labors Job Report and the Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims are watched closely, and interpreted to show where the US economy stands.
Mays 5% freefall in the Dow and Nasdaq was a result of the CPI report showing an increase of 0.6% in April 2006. What halted the further slide was the DoLs Jobs report which said 75,000 new jobs were createda figure that was lower than expectationsindicating that the US economy was slowing down. However it has now brought in a new demon: Fears that an economic downturn is in the offing!
With this in mind, June 2006 would be an extremely important month for investors in India.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
May 2006 was an awful month, with the Sensex falling 22% in 12 days, from 12658 to 9826, and the Nifty, the NSE index, slipping 23%, from 3772 to 2894. They subsequently recovered, but the fall marked an important change in the unbridled run of the Indian stock markets.
Characteristically of secular bull runs, the corrective fall was rapid and, for the agape bulls, without respite. Millions watched as their capital eroded, and disappeared especially those leveraged long in the stock futures and options segments. For the first time, in the last 2 years, was an intra-day circuit brought in to play, since the indices fell 10%the maximum limit they are allowed toand trading was suspended for 1 hour. The last time this happened was May 17, 2004, when the Congress-led UPA government came in to power.
Just a few days ago, everything about India was glowing, and within a week it appeared as if nothing was right. Every bit of positive news was ignored. Theories abound that the fall was anticipated because the index had run ahead of fundamentals or were linked to FIIs moving out of emerging markets.
When it was all over and done with, some important ideas came to fore:
1. No matter how good the fundamentals, markets will always fall
2. Indian markets are purely liquidity driven
3. Indian markets are now inextricably linked to the owners of this liquidityFIIsand since most of them originate in the US, the developments in the US economy will have a strong bearing on their behavior in India.
4. How the government of India taxes these FIIs would drive the Indian markets
5. FIIs are now not just investors but also traders (hedge funds)
Quite emphatically, the Indian markets are directly linked to the larger fate of the US markets.
Fundamentals are good up to a point, but beyond this, it is all about hot money chasing hot stocks, and hot money originates in the US.
FIIs have about $35 billion invested in India, and point to note is the current fall was a result of a mere $1.8 billion moving out. Now imagine if $5 billion did!
With this in mind, it has thus become important for Indian investors to watch inflation and short-term interest rates in the US. A buzzing US economy is good, but too much of the buzz would drive up inflation due to rising real estate, commodity and energy prices. Real estate is already slowing down, but oil and energy continues to be high.
In so far, the Fed has increased interest rates 16 times in a row, taking it to 5% in May, 2006, however recent numbers indicate that the US economy could be halting. The possibility of rates being hiked once again in June to 5.25%, has raised its ugly head sending investors scampering.
The reason such small indicators are lapped up eagerly is because the Fed has said that it is unsure of what to do in the current scenario, and its policy makers are watching the economic numbers just like everyone else. So, cues in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Department of Labors Job Report and the Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims are watched closely, and interpreted to show where the US economy stands.
Mays 5% freefall in the Dow and Nasdaq was a result of the CPI report showing an increase of 0.6% in April 2006. What halted the further slide was the DoLs Jobs report which said 75,000 new jobs were createda figure that was lower than expectationsindicating that the US economy was slowing down. However it has now brought in a new demon: Fears that an economic downturn is in the offing!
With this in mind, June 2006 would be an extremely important month for investors in India.
cheers,
nkpanjiyar
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