Decission points...!

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#11
It takes time to build structure. Thus, while the Profile structure reveals a lot, the sheer fact that time must transpire suggests that fundamental changes occur in the market before they are revealed by structure. Structure acts as the market's translator, and translated information is second-hand information. The market has already spoken in the form of time and logic. Traders who rely exclusively on structure without integrating time and logic will be late in entering and exiting the market.

Later recognition leads to later entry and exit, which in turn leads to less desirable trade location. For example, range extension (structure) confirms that other timeframe buyers have entered the market. But when did they enter the market? If we rely solely on structure, we do not realize the other timeframe buyer's point of entry until the point of range extension, that is, when price is on the day's high. Buying the high results in poor trade location.

In many cases, it is possible to know that buyers are assuming control before the actual structural confirmation (range extension) through an understanding of market time and trading logic.

Trading based on structure provides the greatest level of comfort and confidence, for there is obvious proof on which to base a decision. The more information we have in our favor, the more comfortable we are with a trade. Unfortunately, visible information and
opportunity are inversely related. The more structural information present, the less an opportunity still exists. Thus, if a trader waits for too much information, chances are good that the real opportunity has been missed. If all the evidence is present and visible, then you are far from the first to have acted on it and probably have poor trade location.

Although the Market Profile is best known for the Profile graphic, or structure, experience has shown that understanding the influence of time and trading logic is more important to reaching a holistic view of the marketplace. Putting hi the extra effort to fully understand the building blocks of structure—market time and trading logic—will better prepare traders to anticipate and take
advantage of trading opportunities as they develop, not after they have passed.

Summary: Logic creates the impetus, time generates the signal, and structure provides the confirmation.
 
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#12
Hi Linkon7,
Rightly say about market profile picture.. If you post on regular basis for a month with daily Chart at end of the day, its a great help for us to understand about market profile and it will play major role when we take decision to initiate a position or where to exit.
For trading have you pick Volume profile or Price profile?
Great initiative..
cheer
Saravanan
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
#13
Relationship of Open to Yesterdays Range
The Open in relation to yesterdays range can give valuable clues as to todays expected range. A Market that opens within the Value Range is generally in balance, and awaiting new information.

The Market can open in one of 3 ways, each of which can be accepted or rejected by the Market.
* Within yesterdays Value Area If the price auction spends more than 1 time period within this area, it tends to indicate an acceptance of price, i.e. balance. Range will most likely be similar to yesterdays, with one extreme forming the end to measure from. As long as the extreme holds, the range to the other end will probably be similar in size to yesterday. If the Open is rejected, i.e. it moves in the first time period beyond yesterdays entire range, there is no way of telling how far it may go in the initiative direction.

* Outside the Value Area, but within Yesterdays Range Not quite as balanced as #1, but still relatively balanced. Likely to produce a range similar to a #1, but offset either to the long or short side. As in the first case, if the Open is rejected, i.e. it moves in the first time period beyond yesterdays entire range, there is no way of telling how far it may go in the initiative direction.

* Open Outside of Range Conditions have changed and the Market is out of balance. Other-frame buyers/sellers can often make the Market move substantial distances in short times in the direction of the initial break out WITHIN 1 TIME PERIOD. Alternatively, price may auction around the new level (typically for more than 1 time period), and has unlimited potential in EITHER direction. A trend day (3) is likely to develop from this. If this Open is rejected, and price moves back into yesterdays range within the first time period, there is unlimited potential in the OPPOSITE direction to the initial breakout.

My own feeling on this is that any interest in Market Direction is wasted effort watch for strong penetration or confirmation of major support/resistance if you see it, go with it. Expect trouble at the NEXT level of support/resistance, and be prepared to jump off if it turns against you. Major support/resistance = pivot/sr123, or anything that develops during the day (e.g. the close, the high low, the fibs, whole numbers, last weeks high low LET THE MARKET TELL YOU WHERE the levels are!).

It is probably wise to stay out of:

* Non-trend days The days range is small. Activity is scarce. Go home.
* Just before a News Day Big News can screw up a market witness the 150-point jump either way in the Dow in 3 minutes on news of a large interest rate cut in November 2002. Keep an eye on the calendar and go flat a safe distance before a news announcement.

General Rule Have Patience! If the market is meandering, WAIT for real activity. Never trade because you get bored.
Hi linkon7

One point I saw, after reading your post twice :

""My own feeling on this is that any interest in Market Direction is wasted effort watch for strong penetration or confirmation of major support/resistance if you see it, go with it. Expect trouble at the NEXT level of support/resistance, and be prepared to jump off if it turns against you. Major support/resistance = pivot/sr123, or anything that develops during the day (e.g. the close, the high low, the fibs, whole numbers, last weeks high low LET THE MARKET TELL YOU WHERE the levels are!).""

This is called : The essence and I double it. :thumb:

DanPickUp
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#14
Hi Linkon7,
Rightly say about market profile picture.. If you post on regular basis for a month with daily Chart at end of the day, its a great help for us to understand about market profile and it will play major role when we take decision to initiate a position or where to exit.
For trading have you pick Volume profile or Price profile?
Great initiative..
cheer
Saravanan

I use price profile.

There are only six such profile patterns and every day any one of those six develops end of the day. Profile by itself doesn't help. By the time profile develops...opportunity is lost. Only thing that helps is the ability to gauge the day's development into a set pattern.

I myself am just learning about market profile and hopefully this thread will see inputs from veterans of MP and we all will learn something new from them.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#15


Presence of other time players are hinted with the tail/ head in the candles...
opening range is at 5685 to 5720... which was established in the first 15 min itself... 3rd bar tried to break the range... but bears managed to close is inside the IB, next bar is a doji...then a hammer...the tail of the hammer had a low of 5708... which becomes entry into the short side...

near IB low... bulls made their presence felt... with plenty of tails... so far day type looks like a double distribution...
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#16


Bigger picture is...
yesterday we traded between 5677 and 5648... today we are trading above that... We opened above yesterday's VA, but failed to sustain it... bulls have managed to keep trading levels above yesterday... so ideal direction is look for longs...

Day type loos like a double distribution meaning selling near 5720..buying near 5780 seems to the norm of the day...

down trend will resume only if we fall below 5648... which is the value area low of yesterday...
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#17

Absence of big players are seen in the way the opening range is respected... neither side is showing any aggression... bulls have burnt their hands too many times and are on the back foot... bears are not comfy initiating fresh shorts as they fear the downside is over done...
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#18


EOD analysis : while we traded the whole day above monday's value area. The last 30 min bump up is a suspect. It could be short covering or it could be fresh long addition. Tomorow's opening range of the first 30 min will confirm this activity. If it was short covering then w will retrace this box very easily. The 5707 to 5689 zone will act a support and a break of5689 is resumption of the down trend after a pause of 2 days.

Bears will aggressively initiate positions below 5689 while bulls will try to absorb the selling and in the process reduce the volatility and bring stability to the market.



All the previous falls had not generated any bearish cloud and it was safe to buy the dips. But this fall has split the cloud right in the middle. 5903 is level to watch in the near future and longer we take to reach this level, more bearish the whole eod picture will become...
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#19


Opening range is higher than yesterday's VA... yesterday;s last 30 min spurt was just short covering... now there will be doubt on the bear's minds about nifty sustaining above 5710-5689 mark... bulls feel encouraged...

so opening range is bullish...
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
#20


most of the clue of the bigger players presence lies on the tail and heads of the bar... longer the head/tail... stronger the presence...
 

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