Yesterday's Self Analysis.
All my calls did badly, 2 out of 7 calls worked. Which gave a probability score of around 28%.
Strategy Used for making calls - All calls yesterday were event based and not technical.
Event 1 - Ukraine peace deal reached
Effect: Positive effect on Oil
Reason for effect:
-Since Russia was the biggest looser from falling oil prices, The only reason for Russia to make the peace deal would be to curb its losses from oil and saving its economy going into a complete turmoil. OPEC (which many believe to be not effective now) being friendly to USA controlled majority of OIL market and refuse to cut down on production ( Loads of pressure must be from USA to control OIL prices to hurt Russia economically)
Other factor's like USA producing OIL also is hurting OIL prices and should be still kept in mind for upcoming correction.
Why the first Call failed-- Although the first call gave in the morning was correct and OIL did see a major push to a HIGH of 3199 later in the evening, but it ended up hitting my STOP LOSS of 3115.
Challenge for today: Keeping in mind volatility in oil STOP LOSS should be more then Day's LOW of around 3050. However a big question here would be how to protect your capital in this case if we drop STOP LOSS to a low of 3050? By increasing stop loss you automatically risk your base capital. If any expert is carefully reading my analysis here you'r advice would be welcome.
Challenge 2: No targets and stop loss really work. They keep changing as how markets behave or based on event's. I had to change my stop loss and T1 and T2 targets based on news and how stocks were moving.
Challenge 3: In order to be profitable you may need to change your position from intraday trader to a positional trader if required. With a probability of 28%, you cannot be always profitable on the same day.
Challenge 4: How do you manage your positional trades when US Dollar is falling or climbing. (This seems to be a huge challenge).
Expectations for today: OIL made a high of 3199 and closed at 3171. Two major factor's are Russian Peace Deal as discussed before and Secondly OIL see a major correction on 11th, touched a low of 3001 and then jumped back. OIL is expected to trade above 3150-3200 Level's today. As the outlook is fairly positive, however need to be very careful as this not the price for going long.
PS: Price according to my personal calculations for going long is below 2950. OIL should be continuously accumulated if it comes back to those level's.
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Nickel Call: Nickel was in negative majority of the day despite everything in metal index going up. Nickel shows support at level of 908 902 897 892.
Why sell call was triggered on Nickel- Although strong buy signal was coming on 11th. Inventory on London exchange fell , It went up to high of 927 after a sharp fall. On 12th we saw again consolidating at levels of 917 and fell to 910 and breached 908 then stayed at 910 -913 range bound for a very long time. Hence it was giving very strong indicator of weakness in Nickel even with strong demand.
Later call was given to buy Nickel above 915 and Nickel saw upside of 920 but failed to reach its target 1 of 922 and above.
Challenge: Event based news on commodities may not have an immediate effect but might over a longer period of time. Hence in order to be profitable you may often need to become a Positional trader from Intra-day Trader.
Breakfast time: Will continue to write later in anyone reading my boring analysis. LOL
PS: Nickel Should be accumulated below 900 for Long.
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Silver: Silver gave a very positive breakout yesterday but failed to keep up. It was then range boound below 37500 level's. Although a positive opening and then Ukaraine news coming in should have a positive impact. It remained range bound as silver was not directly hurting russias economy and OIL was the major performer.
Challenge: Positive opening and a good upside yesterday failed to take it above 37750 level. Although STOP loss was not hit but I squared up at 37300
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Copper: Copper also gave a very positive breakout and moved to 357 levels but then became range bound. Some selling was seen at 357 and it kept consolidating at 356 levels. As the future is very weak for copper as news coming from china will have a long term negative effect on price of copper. Copper did not fall much from those level's. It may see a correction in upcoming day's.
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Lead: Remained range bound all day at 113.20 despite entire metal index doing better it failed to move. Hence chances for a downside of 111.50 were more due to weak demand.
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