Charts for the Day

[nac]

Raghu,

Volatility is too much for INFY options. It's in 50's 60's... It will soon drop after results announcement. Trading cost for Esse' strategy would be Rs. 76/-, taking CMP (2600PE and 3100CE). For the last four occasions, cost wasn't this expensive with the success rate of 75%. Best being Jan'13 with more than 1700% returns and worst being Oct'12 with -85%.

We will need at least 300-350 points to move to see some profit. (Guessing based on the last four results). INFY has moved 150-480 points in the last four results.

With this much volatility, short strangle may be a better strategy. But if we are on the wrong side, it will give more loss than Long straddle.

PS: I don't know much about options.

 

[Raghuveer]

Just the info I needed to avoid trouble and tension. Thanks :thumb:.

Raghu,

Volatility is too much for INFY options. It's in 50's 60's... It will soon drop after results announcement. Trading cost for Esse' strategy would be Rs. 76/-, taking CMP (2600PE and 3100CE). For the last four occasions, cost wasn't this expensive with the success rate of 75%. Best being Jan'13 with more than 1700% returns and worst being Oct'12 with -85%.

We will need at least 300-350 points to move to see some profit. (Guessing based on the last four results). INFY has moved 150-480 points in the last four results.

With this much volatility, short strangle may be a better strategy. But if we are on the wrong side, it will give more loss than Long straddle.

PS: I don't know much about options.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Hi Anil..

Few days back u uploaded few charts...one of them was FINANTECH...can we enter it for long again?

Dear Bewinner,

Trend bias:
Short term - down
Intermediate - UP
Long term - Down

A momentum pick up can be seen above 733-35 level. A close above will be better. Weekly is in downtrend and monthly too. so need to see every rally through lens.

Sustaining 745-50 is first sign of strength on intermediate term.

 

[mangup]

Raghu,

Volatility is too much for INFY options. It's in 50's 60's... It will soon drop after results announcement. Trading cost for Esse' strategy would be Rs. 76/-, taking CMP (2600PE and 3100CE). For the last four occasions, cost wasn't this expensive with the success rate of 75%. Best being Jan'13 with more than 1700% returns and worst being Oct'12 with -85%.

We will need at least 300-350 points to move to see some profit. (Guessing based on the last four results). INFY has moved 150-480 points in the last four results.

With this much volatility, short strangle may be a better strategy. But if we are on the wrong side, it will give more loss than Long straddle.

PS: I don't know much about options.

Will it be wise to buy both 2650PE @ 38 & 3100CE @ 48 with total inv of 86 & wait patiently till tomorrow day end?

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear friends,

The analysis i do here is no magical work, as some has asked and PM me, how to do it. Its more of chart reading only.

First how i arrived at marking those levels-
1) It may be daily/weekly pivot zone
2) Price action - from hourly/15min/5min zone

Now price action in itself is big thing. Now to mark it.
I generally see the region where demand/supply mismatch is there. Like a breakout poibt for a rally if nifty is in downtrend. Then look out for solid bar patterns of outside bar/engulfing one. This is where smart money take price away from us.

The only disadvantage of price action is where to put stoploss. for this you may have any MA, but dont place stoploss at MA itself. place it at slightly below it, allow a cushion.

The direction of moving average too tells a lot. Focus on your chart.

Now second part. When to look out for a trade.
When trader timeframe is of 3-5 days. Your hierarchy may be hourly/15min/5min

A oversold in houlry is the point to watch out for if you wanna go long. Then focus on 15min, it must be already oversold, and in making os +ve div may be. Then focus on 5min to spot a good bar pattern at your support levels.

Support/resistance levels are from weekly/monthly charts too are important.

Its a mix of price and momentum.

This is only i understand, this is what i trade.

 

[Bewinner]

Hi Anil...
Nifty resisted twice at 5600 level...once in the morning and second time in the afternoon ...What is ur view now on Nifty...will it go further down...or now it is just up up and up...

 

[Esse]

When I had first raised this topic on the thread I had clearly mentioned that the premium of the calls and the puts would be very high as the D day approaches.

If you see day before yesterday, infy fell quite a bit the 2600 put doubled its value but the 3100 call refused to shed weight. Look at it today infy was up 100Rs. But 2600 which is out of money, did not shed much. Yesterday when infy was playing at 2815-2820 range even 5 Rs movement was influencing the movement of 3100 call which was quite out of the money.

This strategy in my opinion is to be execised, if at all, a week before the results when the premiums are still low. At this point of time the returns will not be at par with the expectations but there will be some returns. BUt as of today, it is better to be left at it own.

If the results are declared tomorrow post markets then there is the intervening weekend wherein the premiums will be affected.

@ Raghuveer : hope to have shed some light on this. I have also mentioned in my original post that I was not very sure of this myself so wanted to discuss with Anil. This is not a new strategy. It is pretty old and has been tested(irrespective of the results). But if the entry time is close to the day of the results then the trade will not remain lucrative. Because the trade is based on the results as a pivot.

Thanks and regards

Will it be wise to buy both 2650PE @ 38 & 3100CE @ 48 with total inv of 86 & wait patiently till tomorrow day end?

 

[Esse]

Hi Anil,
Reminds me of the famous triple screen trading system advocated by Alexander Elder in his book Trading for a Living, which is considered by many as a classic. One more thing I have in my collection a full TA course from Martin Pring (someone who interests you). Though it might be preliminary for you but it is a full course with 7 videos each of approx 1 hour duration. In case you are interested just let me know I will physically post the DVD to you.

I appreciate your prompt response to all the queries (specifically mine) that we raise on the thread and as I have requested you in the past, teach us your skills so that we can derive our own calls instead of asking you for calls every time.

Of late I look forward to you very frequently for trading strategies and my fondness/dependence is growing because your opinions esp of the nifty is very accurate for some time now (and this was a turbulent time).

Also like to mention that Mr. Kaur is running a thread on GAAN angles and was among the very few besides you to state trades clearly before. He initiated a long at 5495 when most were screaming 5430 as a foregone conclusion. Would like to request him to post in our thread once in a while, if you give the permission. I have no communication with him whatsoever previously, and it but my personal opinion only.

Thanks and regards

Dear friends,

The analysis i do here is no magical work, as some has asked and PM me, how to do it. Its more of chart reading only.

First how i arrived at marking those levels-
1) It may be daily/weekly pivot zone
2) Price action - from hourly/15min/5min zone

Now price action in itself is big thing. Now to mark it.
I generally see the region where demand/supply mismatch is there. Like a breakout poibt for a rally if nifty is in downtrend. Then look out for solid bar patterns of outside bar/engulfing one. This is where smart money take price away from us.

The only disadvantage of price action is where to put stoploss. for this you may have any MA, but dont place stoploss at MA itself. place it at slightly below it, allow a cushion.

The direction of moving average too tells a lot. Focus on your chart.

Now second part. When to look out for a trade.
When trader timeframe is of 3-5 days. Your hierarchy may be hourly/15min/5min

A oversold in houlry is the point to watch out for if you wanna go long. Then focus on 15min, it must be already oversold, and in making os +ve div may be. Then focus on 5min to spot a good bar pattern at your support levels.

Support/resistance levels are from weekly/monthly charts too are important.

Its a mix of price and momentum.

This is only i understand, this is what i trade.

 

[Raghuveer]

Thank you. Will try to use this info next time or for some other results.
Either here or in a different thread please continue posting your thoughts on other results, it will be a good learning experience.

When I had first raised this topic on the thread I had clearly mentioned that the premium of the calls and the puts would be very high as the D day approaches.

If you see day before yesterday, infy fell quite a bit the 2600 put doubled its value but the 3100 call refused to shed weight. Look at it today infy was up 100Rs. But 2600 which is out of money, did not shed much. Yesterday when infy was playing at 2815-2820 range even 5 Rs movement was influencing the movement of 3100 call which was quite out of the money.

This strategy in my opinion is to be execised, if at all, a week before the results when the premiums are still low. At this point of time the returns will not be at par with the expectations but there will be some returns. BUt as of today, it is better to be left at it own.

If the results are declared tomorrow post markets then there is the intervening weekend wherein the premiums will be affected.

@ Raghuveer : hope to have shed some light on this. I have also mentioned in my original post that I was not very sure of this myself so wanted to discuss with Anil. This is not a new strategy. It is pretty old and has been tested(irrespective of the results). But if the entry time is close to the day of the results then the trade will not remain lucrative. Because the trade is based on the results as a pivot.

Thanks and regards

 

[Bewinner]

Hi Anil,
Reminds me of the famous triple screen trading system advocated by Alexander Elder in his book Trading for a Living, which is considered by many as a classic. One more thing I have in my collection a full TA course from Martin Pring (someone who interests you). Though it might be preliminary for you but it is a full course with 7 videos each of approx 1 hour duration. In case you are interested just let me know I will physically post the DVD to you.

I appreciate your prompt response to all the queries (specifically mine) that we raise on the thread and as I have requested you in the past, teach us your skills so that we can derive our own calls instead of asking you for calls every time.

Of late I look forward to you very frequently for trading strategies and my fondness/dependence is growing because your opinions esp of the nifty is very accurate for some time now (and this was a turbulent time).

Also like to mention that Mr. Kaur is running a thread on GAAN angles and was among the very few besides you to state trades clearly before. He initiated a long at 5495 when most were screaming 5430 as a foregone conclusion. Would like to request him to post in our thread once in a while, if you give the permission. I have no communication with him whatsoever previously, and it but my personal opinion only.

Thanks and regards

Really Appreciable comments...Esse..could u plz upload those dvd's in any of the forum and gave us the link?