cement stocks

[uasish]

Hi,
There are many in this forum or outside who will tell you about how wonderfull acurate Tips are given by so and so ,dont fall for it,now you are tender & suseceptable to fall for those traps.One very imp. thing is you have to gulp knowledge & devote 500% time to learning every damn thing about TA. & swim through 100's of charts.This is your formative stage once you are thru this earning & living comfortably trading all throughout life is an absolute reality.This trading is a proffession taken by many ,many people.Only believe those who are consistently successful (monetary wise),rest all are braging &
bullshit.Money earned is the only parameter of success of any indicator/oscillator/system/strategy nothing else.
1st & formost go thru all i repeat all the posts of MACD thread of kartikumar.Learn every thing thing about MACD ,all details ,why Moving Avg Cross over,why Simple or Exponential ,what is the mathametical difference of
SA & EMA etc etc.MACD is the only safe indicator which will keep you on the right side of mkt. Now you are not in a stage to grasp Pattern ,the thread of Ashish,get a free software & free EOD data,set up a comfortable place & hybernate with MACD for few days & look at 1000s of charts to grasp it.I gaurantee you only MACD or Pattern or Stochastic will give you money.Divide your capital to 2 parts,put 1 part in savings a/c (to sustain few months a monk like lifestyle) rest in on line broker's a/c & buy only in your capital no broker's exposure,now is your learning phase ,not earning phase.This i have personally gone thru twice in my life & these are the only way to succeed.99% of the members in this forum has a seperate source of income,unlike you & me ,mkt is like an alternate source to them.Best of luck.If you ever happen to be at Kolkata from Delhi i will take you to few people for whom Trading is the only proffession & all each & all have gone thru your stage in there early trading days.

Asish

 

[suba_stocks]

i suffered the biggest loss with guj ambuja cement in intraday, lost around 17000 almost forgot that these big controversial stocks are not good for intraday, still gotta learn from my mistakes as a beginner, will try not to repeat them in the future.

whether you are trading intraday,short term or long term,you should be in the direction of trend,split second is enough to see change in trend for any reason.

indicators like MACD,stochostics,william R etc...are best to decide when to enter.

There is something to learn every time when we lose..why it happend and where and how you went wrong.Experience and knowledge is all going to play greater role in many cases.

suba

 

[CreditViolet]

if some fii pulls out his money from this mkt what will happend to us

Well, you can pull out first. If FIIs can pullout, then the so called small investor can pullout more easily. Maybe your priorities are mixed up, I'd rather make money than worry about govt. policies.

CV

 

[equitymaster]

First of all, no short term or medium term investor should invest in cement or for that matter any commodity stock, be it steel,alluminium etc because they r all cyclical in nature . All those expert on CNBCs of the world will give u targets with stop losses far below the current price where for a normal retail investor, psychologically it becomes very difficult to get out of that stock.
So if yr horizon is short or medium, never enter commodity sector or follow trend line rules strictly. once trend line is broken , get out, at least 50%. In next revival attempt, if the stock is unable to close inside the trend for two days atleast, sell remaining shares also.
Last year every one was bullish about steel and the sentment changed in one day by one single line news " China to become net exporter in steel in 2-3 months" ever since steel socks are in corrective mode like TISCO , it went dn to 430 then 515+ but never made it into the uptrend line .Retail investor should have sold in that rally or one following prior to Corus deal.

As far as very long term investors r concerned, nothing is lost either in cement or steel.

If u believe in India's GDP growth, it will average 8% at least for next 4 yrs, all commodity sector will do well in the long run.

So where to invest? relcomm, TTML,

Reason: Vodafone paid USD 20 billion for a forth number company in India and such aquisition r made keeping worst scenerio in mind and not on assumption that we will throw everybody else out. If they r so confident that they will make more money by being in Indian telecom sector than keeping that huge amount in a bank, why should anyone doubt AMBANI AND TATA?
when relcomm was at Rs 270-280, the company issued FCCB convetible at 480 , at some later date (2-3yrs). I immediately bought , then it went dn to 220 level, giving more opportunity to average dn, now again while at 480 level , they issued FCCB of 1 billion dollar, convertible at 680!! So why hesitate in buying at 400+ level plus compare with valuation HUTCH got.

GAIL has survived major portion of the big fall , plus fairly good dividend yield , and lots of future plannings and investment by it.

Bank of rajsthan, neglected stock but remember by July07 or july08, promoters have to sell their stake to bring it from around 40% to 10 asper RBI guidelines. book value x2 = 75 is expected price of stake sell,so buy it

 

[innocent_trader]

Hi,
There are many in this forum or outside who will tell you about how wonderfull acurate Tips are given by so and so ,dont fall for it,now you are tender & suseceptable to fall for those traps.One very imp. thing is you have to gulp knowledge & devote 500% time to learning every damn thing about TA. & swim through 100's of charts.This is your formative stage once you are thru this earning & living comfortably trading all throughout life is an absolute reality.This trading is a proffession taken by many ,many people.Only believe those who are consistently successful (monetary wise),rest all are braging &
bullshit.Money earned is the only parameter of success of any indicator/oscillator/system/strategy nothing else.
1st & formost go thru all i repeat all the posts of MACD thread of kartikumar.Learn every thing thing about MACD ,all details ,why Moving Avg Cross over,why Simple or Exponential ,what is the mathametical difference of
SA & EMA etc etc.MACD is the only safe indicator which will keep you on the right side of mkt. Now you are not in a stage to grasp Pattern ,the thread of Ashish,get a free software & free EOD data,set up a comfortable place & hybernate with MACD for few days & look at 1000s of charts to grasp it.I gaurantee you only MACD or Pattern or Stochastic will give you money.Divide your capital to 2 parts,put 1 part in savings a/c (to sustain few months a monk like lifestyle) rest in on line broker's a/c & buy only in your capital no broker's exposure,now is your learning phase ,not earning phase.This i have personally gone thru twice in my life & these are the only way to succeed.99% of the members in this forum has a seperate source of income,unlike you & me ,mkt is like an alternate source to them.Best of luck.If you ever happen to be at Kolkata from Delhi i will take you to few people for whom Trading is the only proffession & all each & all have gone thru your stage in there early trading days.

Asish

hi asish,

thanks for giving me so much valuable info, i never cared to do any TA or MACD, now i'll go through the TA threads here, can you recommend any free software which i should use, i know metastock is not free.

 

[innocent_trader]

First of all, no short term or medium term investor should invest in cement or for that matter any commodity stock, be it steel,alluminium etc because they r all cyclical in nature . All those expert on CNBCs of the world will give u targets with stop losses far below the current price where for a normal retail investor, psychologically it becomes very difficult to get out of that stock.
So if yr horizon is short or medium, never enter commodity sector or follow trend line rules strictly. once trend line is broken , get out, at least 50%. In next revival attempt, if the stock is unable to close inside the trend for two days atleast, sell remaining shares also.
Last year every one was bullish about steel and the sentment changed in one day by one single line news " China to become net exporter in steel in 2-3 months" ever since steel socks are in corrective mode like TISCO , it went dn to 430 then 515+ but never made it into the uptrend line .Retail investor should have sold in that rally or one following prior to Corus deal.

As far as very long term investors r concerned, nothing is lost either in cement or steel.

If u believe in India's GDP growth, it will average 8% at least for next 4 yrs, all commodity sector will do well in the long run.

So where to invest? relcomm, TTML,

Reason: Vodafone paid USD 20 billion for a forth number company in India and such aquisition r made keeping worst scenerio in mind and not on assumption that we will throw everybody else out. If they r so confident that they will make more money by being in Indian telecom sector than keeping that huge amount in a bank, why should anyone doubt AMBANI AND TATA?
when relcomm was at Rs 270-280, the company issued FCCB convetible at 480 , at some later date (2-3yrs). I immediately bought , then it went dn to 220 level, giving more opportunity to average dn, now again while at 480 level , they issued FCCB of 1 billion dollar, convertible at 680!! So why hesitate in buying at 400+ level plus compare with valuation HUTCH got.

GAIL has survived major portion of the big fall , plus fairly good dividend yield , and lots of future plannings and investment by it.

Bank of rajsthan, neglected stock but remember by July07 or july08, promoters have to sell their stake to bring it from around 40% to 10 asper RBI guidelines. book value x2 = 75 is expected price of stake sell,so buy it

hi equitymaster,
you are very right, even i was very willingly stuck with bharti airtel for a few times before, but i lost patience and booked small loss and got out but when i realised my mistake, it was too late.

 

[uasish]

innocent_trader,
Even now a days A.Get is free,I prefer Metastock but you can use Ami,every body has found it to be more user friendly.Search for free ,it is available.

Asish

 

[vince]

hi vince,
plz let me know what techinque should i use in intraday?

regards

Sorry , I missed your post. I have found Michael covel and John Crane most helpful in designing my trading strategy.

Since you are also interested in options Options, perception and deception by Charles cottle is an excellent read.

I can only point you in the right direction , the rest is up to you.

 

[karthikmarar]

............,but what about a normal investor who put 50000 bucks in a cement stock.Is the normal investors of this country paying for some foolish decision by govt,what message this will send to fiis ,......

Hey,

Ahh... poor investor putting 50k in stocks..... at least sometimes think of those poor blokes putting all their hard earned and borrowed money in trying to build a decent abode ...

 

[jatayoo]

Hey,

Ahh... poor investor putting 50k in stocks..... at least sometimes think of those poor blokes putting all their hard earned and borrowed money in trying to build a decent abode ...

----------------------------------------------------
I shall consider buying Cement stocks at 1.5x to 2.0x of the book value of the stock--- nothing more.
.............SUGAR stocks i will buy when their is a drought in brazil or something like that.