BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Nifty for this week

Shorts on daily charts continue to hold, market is showing no momentum on either side. There is a very strong possibility of a retest of lows, but that seems not in a hurry.
Budget a week ahead, will give the required momentum & direction. Intraday charts have not found good weakness to short, while on going long, there is no good risk/reward potential.
Wait for a great opportunity to short.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

For the week 8 March 2010

Market is going up reaching previous high levels. What is in store for this week? A week of no trades, Holiday! Yes, a Holiday week. Of the 10 broad sectors, that the whole market is classified. Seven of them are having bearish divergence on the Weekly charts. The Three which are yet to have weakness are:

Basic Materials: This is the sector which had the best of bullishness in the current move up. This sector has just reached levels to retrace bearishness, but yet to end the bullish trend.

Consumer Services: The strongest of the sectors in the present market. This chart does not show any weakness. There is much steam left in the consumer services stocks. Most of them are already on the run. Titan shows highest strength. Indian Hotels to retest previous highs. Jagran and TV18 are fresh buy candidates.

Financials: This sector went into sideways market before reaching bearish divergence. Now it has started the up move to complete the pending bearish divergence. The leaders of the sector, ICICI Bank and SBI Bank have resumed their final bullish run. ICICI above 950 and SBI above 2350 will confirm bearish formation.

Once a chart retraces bearish divergence on the higher timeframe, it is a signal to change direction, whereas without going down, market has turned up now. When a super strong signal doesnt pan out, it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market. Once all the left over sectors too clear bearish divergence, the whole is headed for a strong bear move.

The strongest sector of today has 2 buy signals this week.

Jagran: Buy above 121.30 with a stop of 10 points.
TV 18: Buy above 78.65 with a stop of 5 points.

Hold positions till the sector index retraces bearish divergence.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Both recomendations triggered entry today. Hold positions for further moves. Positions will be tracked on daily basis.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Holdings Update: JAGRAN & TV-18

JJAGRAN, has given a Red impulse bar indicating reversal in the trend. Close long below todays low of 117.00

TV-18, though closed weak is above EMA. Hold position for further moves.

NIFTY, Daily charts have made higher high on MACD Histogram, while MACD lines have gone above zero. Trade long after Nifty pulls to value. Todays EMA levels are 4970, which is quite far away from present values. It may take time before both EMA and value meets. Wait till then to trade long on Hourly charts. Daily charts do not have any trade on the long side, wait for shorts.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Markets Review for 12-03-2009 Week

NIFTY, is close to previous high levels. There seems to be no much steam left to have a hard push here. There is a likeliness of one more re-test above current high to reach 5200 level resistance. To trade entry here needs NIFTY to reach value close to 5050 levels. Daily MACD lines are strong while MACD Histogram has started on its downhill ride.

On the Broad sector analysis, we find only Consumer Services segment to be Bullish for any trade on the long side. Basic Materials and Financials are reaching bearish divergence levels. How the sectors have stacked up for the past Week and Day is given below.

While Technology Sector leads on the Weekly followed by Financials and weakest being the Consumer Services Sector. Daily shows a different picture with Utilities leading the rally followed by Technology. In considering both Weekly and Daily, it is confirmed that Technology Sector has momentum. But the Charts have a strong bearish divergence. This is a final chance for any leftover longs to get sold off. The Financials which is yet to give any weakness on the charts and shows strength in the Weekly sector gains has some steam left.

Consumer Services sector which is the weakest on the Weekly map and the strongest on the Charts gives another opportunity to go long. Consumer Services Sector is a combination of Food and Drug Retailers, Media, Diamond Jewelers and Hotel Industries in it. Of these, Diamond jewelers and Hotels are yet to have any weakness. So, we have to find trade opportunities in these two Industry categories.

Any negative news is likely to impact the markets very strongly. Be cautious on the front foot to short on emerging weakness.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sector positions for 15-03-2010

Technology which had strength on both weekly and daily ranking has leaded the list today, followed by Basic Materials. Apart from these 2 sectors all the rest have closed negative. The weaker sectors today were Telecom followed by Financials. Technology is weak on the weekly charts, so this rally shows that something is fundamentally brewing underneath this sector.

Financials are yet to retrace any bearish divergence, but the move from March 2009 did not coincide with the prominent sectors. It had a good side ways pattern for the past 4 months before making this current move up to reach for previous high levels.

Basic Materials is also one of the sectors which have not retraced any bearish divergence patterns yet. But there is no room left for new entries, you should have already boarded the train when it stopped or retraced to value in February last.

Consumer Services is the only sector which has more strength now. Of the Industries that form this sector, Diamond Jewelry and Hotels are having strength. Stocks in this industry can be checked good entries which will reap good returns. But the stock charts also should have similar strength like their Sector chart. Titan, Indian Hotel etc., are stocks which can be looked at.

Telecommunications is one sector which has been lagging the total market for the past many months. Though charts show bullish patterns, the sector as whole is not moving up.

Days of big money in the markets are over. With Institutions starting to churn their portfolios and large investors in the verge of liquidating positions (if they have not already done so when the right signals emerged), traders do not have big time opportunities like we had in 2009. Still there would be gains available, for which we have to do strong research.

Larger timeframes show signals for a side ways move. If monthly and weekly charts go sideways, then Daily or intraday does not have much space to move around. The ball which went sky high, pitched down, took a decent bounce not able to go beyond previous high, has now started to settle down. As the pitch was very strong, the bounce too was relatively good. Now the steam is out, it will roll down a bit before gathering any wind to move in either direction.

We sat back and watched our portfolios churning out money, now it is time to enjoy the booty. Sit aside and watch the market play its lessons on those who have lost the opportunity to exit at right levels. Those who are smart win all along, while the lazy are the ones who bear all the brunt.

While watching the game going on, lets do our research with more sharp view and find some really good stocks or wait for the right moment to jump into a big move.

Happy holidays, fellow investors.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Oil & Gas Sector took a strong lead today followed by Consumer services and Technology. All the sectors registered gains, with Telecom being the only sector with nil gains. Oil & Gas sector has already retraced very strong bearish divergence on weekly charts. Even Crude Oil charts have similar patterns. Every move up gains more bearish strength. Shorting at the right time will give immediate gains.

From November onwards, though market did not give in to bearish sentiments. No bull moves have given considerable gains. The march up which took 50 trading days from 4550 to 5300 on the NIFTY index took just 15 trading days to retrace back almost to the same levels. On the bullish side the journey was not smooth; it had many pitch and bounce. This did not give any good profits on long trades. While short which was signaled at 4970 levels got covered at 4770, giving a good 200 points profits in a short span of 10 trading days.

Market is getting tighter every day. We have to find the right opportunity by waiting in patience and also be equally smart to get out with considerable gains on finding a small weakness to the prevailing trend. As of now, though the market is trying to inch up every day with small gains to previous close. There is a strong fall likely, which would wash off all the accumulated gains in few trading sessions. Those who trade on the long side is double cautious to exit on first signs of weakness. Do not try to nail tops and bottoms, while doing so only would feed your brokers with commissions. While you are left, only with the bitter experience, as a lesson to learn. Remember what happened in January. 340 points were washed off on bullish gains in just 5 trading days of the 3rd week.

The only sector that has strength is Consumer Services. Where you can find Titan, Indian Hotels and the likes rocking. There is still steam left in these stocks. One more point of most importance is that, in an economic cycle from Boom to saturation and vise versa. End of a boom signifies with the top end market getting more domination. Jewelers, luxury goods, hotel etc,. Are the industries which pull in excess cash flow in the market? All the excess generated from the saturation phase to the boom phase will get sucked out by these industries. That is the time when these industries show strength. We are right in that phase now.

Make small gains; be happy with what you have made. Give a pat at the back for your excellence. Wait in patience for the next move to come. Happy trading.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sector Index data

Nifty is close to previous high, while charts show very storng bearish divergence. Nifty needs very strong bullish push to get strength here. Daily charts have gained strength on MACD lines and MACD histogram. On pull back to value we can trade long on the NIFTY, with a very strict stop and exit the position on first weakness.

Of the NIfty stocks, only SEIMENS has good strength, while all other stocks have either very strong bearish diverence or retracing it in the present move. ICICI Bank has has closed at the highest, surpassing the previous highest close. While all the indicators show weakness.

Many stocks which had new long entries in the current move up like, HINDALCO, ABB, GLAXO, M&M, TATAMOTORS, etc., have also retraced bearish divergence now.

On the sector ranking, Healthcare took lead today followed by basic materials and Technology. We have given the index values of 72 Industry segments compiled from CNX 500 list and 10 Sectors. This is a Price average based index.

Identifying stocks based on a group movement has more advantages than single stock selection. Instead of running through the whole list of stocks, we can get the best group of stocks which have strength when we use the indexes to analyse.

The uses of indexes are plenty, have a look.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Review for 18-03-2010

Markets are close to previous high levels. Indicators show strength, MACD lines have crossed previous peaks. What does this mean to us now? There is possibility of further move up, before that a retracement to value is a must. Both EMAs are rising, NIFTY has to reach 5125-5050 levels for pull back trades on the long side. Weekly charts have added more bearish strength. While prices have managed to reach previous high levels, MACD histogram is yet struggling below zero, this very clearly shows total back out of bulls in the market.

Once Daily gains some weakness, there is a big collapse expected. With broad markets into bearish divergence on weekly charts, there are some Industry groups which have strength and are yet to give any weakness. They are Bearings, Fertilizers, Hospitals and Medical Services, Hotels, Packaging Printing and Glass, Telecommunication Equipments & textile. Have a close look into those stocks which fall into these Industry groups and you can fine some very winning trades.

Technology sector kept lead today followed by Financials, Basic Materials and Telecom. Telecom sector has started showing positive divergence, though at shallow pace. Look into stocks like BHARTI, IDEA and RCOM, charts of these stocks show strength.

Following is the ranking of Industries and Sectors comprising the CNX 500 stocks. In zip file.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Telecom Takes Lead

After being subdued for close to six months, Telecom sector has started looking up. As we had written, in our last post. All the front runners of telecom services industry have gained momentum. BHARTI AIRTEL, which came to buy at 295.50 levels, has already locked more than 6% gains. While the whole market was weak today, the only sector that kept its head above water was telecom.

This shows how the stock market has a clear cycle formation. As other sectors loose their sheen, there is always a sector to give some stocks to take position in. On the Index side, market is getting ready for the next bear run. Hourly charts have already gone short at 5230 levels. There may be another attempt to give a new high, but that would get the steam out and give a still stronger strength for short trades.

Many Industries which are still strong like Jewellery, Hotels, Fertilizers etc., have started coming down. We have another opportunity of long trades here. Sugar industry which is pretty weak has the next opportunity on the long side.