A view on commodities
- Thread starter DSM
- Start date
Silver has been on decline for the last two weeks, and every upmove has been led to a sell off. Yesterday, silver closed down -.42% at 38,200. However today, it is trading up 2.13% in the international markets. This presents an opportunity to go long on silver, while keeping in mind that INR is trading higher @ approx .60% against the USD. So Silver at 38,200*2.13*(-.60%) i.e 38,780 is a fair value of where it should open, but this will not provide any room for upside. Based on the above values holding, an entry @ 38,660 would be fair for a quick scalp.
Had entered at 666 and out at 780. .Got enough profit in Silver . How did you get the exact entry price ? It never gave a chance for an entry below the price since twice early this morning .:thumb::thumb:Thanks a lot Bro
[I had been trying to paste the ledger report .And am hard pressed to find a way to do. I asked the broker for help, and he warns not to.]
Thanks again .Best of luck with your trades .Take care
PS: It did go higher than the price I booked out .I usually go for a set target .Thanks !
Will be off line till evening from now . No need to explain the entry level in reply .Do concentrate on your trade .TC
[I had been trying to paste the ledger report .And am hard pressed to find a way to do. I asked the broker for help, and he warns not to.]
Thanks again .Best of luck with your trades .Take care
PS: It did go higher than the price I booked out .I usually go for a set target .Thanks !
Will be off line till evening from now . No need to explain the entry level in reply .Do concentrate on your trade .TC
Last edited:
Hi Catch, Silver did trade below 38,660 which was an opportunity to go long. Sometimes, we have to enter at what we find is a 'fair price' and accept a drawdown, because if sentiments are bullish, the opportunity to enter later will not be available in case of a price spike. Suggest never paste ledger report. Not required.
Entry level, is to first arrive at a fair price considering the previous close, USDINR rate and a acceptable rate of discount. Glad that you had a good scalp. :thumb::thumb::thumb:
The tick chart is attached for reference of price traded.
Entry level, is to first arrive at a fair price considering the previous close, USDINR rate and a acceptable rate of discount. Glad that you had a good scalp. :thumb::thumb::thumb:
The tick chart is attached for reference of price traded.
Had entered at 666 and out at 780. .Got enough profit in Silver . How did you get the exact entry price ? It never gave a chance for an entry below the price since twice early this morning .:thumb::thumb:Thanks a lot Bro
[I had been trying to paste the ledger report .And am hard pressed to find a way to do. I asked the broker for help, and he warns not to.]
Thanks again .Best of luck with your trades .Take care
PS: It did go higher than the price I booked out .I usually go for a set target .Thanks !
Will be off line till evening from now . No need to explain the entry level in reply .Do concentrate on your trade .TC
[I had been trying to paste the ledger report .And am hard pressed to find a way to do. I asked the broker for help, and he warns not to.]
Thanks again .Best of luck with your trades .Take care
PS: It did go higher than the price I booked out .I usually go for a set target .Thanks !
Will be off line till evening from now . No need to explain the entry level in reply .Do concentrate on your trade .TC
What are commodities and the dollar telling us? (Edited excerpt) - John Nyaradi
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-are-commodities-and-the-dollar-telling-us-2014-10-08
(Note : Inverse ETF's basically shorts the underlying. For e.g inverse ETF of Gold can be bought if the outlook for Gold is bearish)
Commodity prices are tanking while the dollar soars, and this action tells volumes about market action and where new opportunities might be found. Here are some takeaways from action in commodities and the dollar:
Commodity prices rise and fall inversely to the strength of the dollar. Since Aug. 28, the dollar has been on a steady climb, so ETFs have been a good place to be as the ETF is up more than 7% since early August. This is likely to continue as quantitative easing comes to an end and the Fed moves toward raising interest rates.
Gold falls as the dollar strengthens. The precious metal is down some 9% since early July, and the bear market shows no signs of ending as money flows out of gold and other commodities and into U.S. dollars.
The Fed's quantitative-easing program generated a weaker dollar and sent the spot price of gold to a record-high $1,895 per ounce in 2011. With the end of quantitative easing, gold bugs could be facing a long winter of discontent.
Will dollar strength send stocks lower? A stronger dollar has historically meant lower stock prices, primarily because it makes America's exports less competitively priced in foreign markets. Nevertheless, the third quarter of 2014 brought the sixth-strongest quarterly gain for the dollar since 1980. The greenback soared 7.8% during that 90-day period.
Falling commodity prices are a common sign of deflation, and we're seeing more evidence of problems in Europe as the European Central Bank might introduce its own quantitative-easing program to further weaken the euro for the sake of boosting the eurozone's economy. Realistically, there are some key factors which make this unlikely: Because the ECB never introduced euro bonds, the central bank would need to coordinate a sovereign bond-buying program focused on the debt of individual member nations. Orchestrating agreement on such a program would be a formidable task. Before the ECB could reach that point, it would need to convince Germany, or more specifically the Bundesbank, to drop their longstanding opposition to such an idea. Therefore, worsening deflation and recession seem likely possibilities.
Outside of Europe, Japan is in serious trouble with deflation and a slowing economy, so we can count on the Bank of Japan to continue weakening that nation's currency, as Japan relies on an ever-weakening yen as part of the "Abenomics" agenda. This has been an ongoing struggle for more than two decades with no end in sight.
Dollar strength has historically caused problems for emerging markets. This would come at an inopportune time, as the August HSBC Emerging Markets Index noted that "The outlook for global emerging markets continued to deteriorate in August."
So those are the problems, and here are some opportunities that could be realized as the current situation unfolds. Falling gold and commodity prices and a rising dollar can be exploited through bullish dollar ETFs and inverse gold and commodity ETFs.
If the end of quantitative easing ushers in a new and unfamiliar era of falling stock prices, multiple opportunities could be found in inverse ETFs, put options and bond ETFs which tend to rise as stock prices fall.
Deflation and recession probably won't be good for the euro or European stock markets and so inverse euro ETFs, inverse European ETFs or outright shorts on various European country ETFs might be worthy of consideration.
Emerging markets could be in for a rough time, which could make inverse emerging-market ETFs a bright place to be.
Treasury bonds and bond ETFs could shine if a flight to safety should get underway in earnest.
All of these strategies, particularly inverse ETFs, require a fair degree of understanding and expertise, however, one does not need an ever-rising stock market to reach one's goals. With the end of quantitative easing and rising interest rates on the horizon, the U.S. and global economy are very likely going to experience a significant sea change, as U.S. currency and monetary action are the 900-pound gorilla on the global stage. The last few years have generated booming stock markets, a falling dollar, rising commodity prices and significant money flows to emerging markets. All of these things could now be subject to a meaningful change of direction, but astute investors can find new opportunities as the tide changes.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-are-commodities-and-the-dollar-telling-us-2014-10-08
(Note : Inverse ETF's basically shorts the underlying. For e.g inverse ETF of Gold can be bought if the outlook for Gold is bearish)
Commodity prices are tanking while the dollar soars, and this action tells volumes about market action and where new opportunities might be found. Here are some takeaways from action in commodities and the dollar:
Commodity prices rise and fall inversely to the strength of the dollar. Since Aug. 28, the dollar has been on a steady climb, so ETFs have been a good place to be as the ETF is up more than 7% since early August. This is likely to continue as quantitative easing comes to an end and the Fed moves toward raising interest rates.
Gold falls as the dollar strengthens. The precious metal is down some 9% since early July, and the bear market shows no signs of ending as money flows out of gold and other commodities and into U.S. dollars.
The Fed's quantitative-easing program generated a weaker dollar and sent the spot price of gold to a record-high $1,895 per ounce in 2011. With the end of quantitative easing, gold bugs could be facing a long winter of discontent.
Will dollar strength send stocks lower? A stronger dollar has historically meant lower stock prices, primarily because it makes America's exports less competitively priced in foreign markets. Nevertheless, the third quarter of 2014 brought the sixth-strongest quarterly gain for the dollar since 1980. The greenback soared 7.8% during that 90-day period.
Falling commodity prices are a common sign of deflation, and we're seeing more evidence of problems in Europe as the European Central Bank might introduce its own quantitative-easing program to further weaken the euro for the sake of boosting the eurozone's economy. Realistically, there are some key factors which make this unlikely: Because the ECB never introduced euro bonds, the central bank would need to coordinate a sovereign bond-buying program focused on the debt of individual member nations. Orchestrating agreement on such a program would be a formidable task. Before the ECB could reach that point, it would need to convince Germany, or more specifically the Bundesbank, to drop their longstanding opposition to such an idea. Therefore, worsening deflation and recession seem likely possibilities.
Outside of Europe, Japan is in serious trouble with deflation and a slowing economy, so we can count on the Bank of Japan to continue weakening that nation's currency, as Japan relies on an ever-weakening yen as part of the "Abenomics" agenda. This has been an ongoing struggle for more than two decades with no end in sight.
Dollar strength has historically caused problems for emerging markets. This would come at an inopportune time, as the August HSBC Emerging Markets Index noted that "The outlook for global emerging markets continued to deteriorate in August."
So those are the problems, and here are some opportunities that could be realized as the current situation unfolds. Falling gold and commodity prices and a rising dollar can be exploited through bullish dollar ETFs and inverse gold and commodity ETFs.
If the end of quantitative easing ushers in a new and unfamiliar era of falling stock prices, multiple opportunities could be found in inverse ETFs, put options and bond ETFs which tend to rise as stock prices fall.
Deflation and recession probably won't be good for the euro or European stock markets and so inverse euro ETFs, inverse European ETFs or outright shorts on various European country ETFs might be worthy of consideration.
Emerging markets could be in for a rough time, which could make inverse emerging-market ETFs a bright place to be.
Treasury bonds and bond ETFs could shine if a flight to safety should get underway in earnest.
All of these strategies, particularly inverse ETFs, require a fair degree of understanding and expertise, however, one does not need an ever-rising stock market to reach one's goals. With the end of quantitative easing and rising interest rates on the horizon, the U.S. and global economy are very likely going to experience a significant sea change, as U.S. currency and monetary action are the 900-pound gorilla on the global stage. The last few years have generated booming stock markets, a falling dollar, rising commodity prices and significant money flows to emerging markets. All of these things could now be subject to a meaningful change of direction, but astute investors can find new opportunities as the tide changes.
Thanks a lot for the for the extra time and effort you took for the detailed reply .
From what I saw , of the chart since I'd left , Silver hasn't fallen much ,except for a minor rub 'after the jobs data .And the level has held up thr' the day .Thank you.
However - 7:30pm -Wholesale Inventories m/m
8:30pm-ECB President Draghi Speaks
Feels bad that you lost due to the problem of chart .Hope you recover .you deserve to . :thumb:
Take care .
From what I saw , of the chart since I'd left , Silver hasn't fallen much ,except for a minor rub 'after the jobs data .And the level has held up thr' the day .Thank you.
However - 7:30pm -Wholesale Inventories m/m
8:30pm-ECB President Draghi Speaks
Feels bad that you lost due to the problem of chart .Hope you recover .you deserve to . :thumb:
Take care .
Last edited:
Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: October 13 - 17
http://www.investing.com/news/commo...ures---weekly-outlook:-october-13---17-312686
Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday's session close to a one-month low, as market players monitored near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.
Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: October 13 - 17Natural gas futures end the week down 4.45%
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November tacked on 1.4 cents, or 0.36%, to settle at $3.859 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday.
A day earlier, natural gas prices hit $3.815, a level not seen since September 12, before closing at $3.845, down 1.0 cent, or 0.26%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12, and resistance at $3.947, the high from October 8.
On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 18.0 cents, or 4.45%, the first weekly decline in three weeks.
Updated weather-forecasting models continued to call for pockets of cool air to trek across the U.S. in the coming days, though temperatures still won't fall too hard to seriously drive demand for heating while staying mild enough to curb the need for air conditioning.Cooler air systems will see reinforcements, though the intensity of these blasts of falling mercury reading remains up in the air. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's weekly inventory data, which showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 105 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 91 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 84 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 25 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.205 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 11% from a record 54.7% at the end of March.
Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending October 7. Net longs totaled 6,288 contracts, down sharply from net longs of 26,166 in the previous week.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for November delivery settled at $85.82 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $3.92, or 4.36%, on the week.
Meanwhile, heating oil for November delivery slumped 2.14% on the week to settle at $2.560 per gallon by close of trade Friday.
http://www.investing.com/news/commo...ures---weekly-outlook:-october-13---17-312686
Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday's session close to a one-month low, as market players monitored near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.
Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: October 13 - 17Natural gas futures end the week down 4.45%
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November tacked on 1.4 cents, or 0.36%, to settle at $3.859 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday.
A day earlier, natural gas prices hit $3.815, a level not seen since September 12, before closing at $3.845, down 1.0 cent, or 0.26%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12, and resistance at $3.947, the high from October 8.
On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 18.0 cents, or 4.45%, the first weekly decline in three weeks.
Updated weather-forecasting models continued to call for pockets of cool air to trek across the U.S. in the coming days, though temperatures still won't fall too hard to seriously drive demand for heating while staying mild enough to curb the need for air conditioning.Cooler air systems will see reinforcements, though the intensity of these blasts of falling mercury reading remains up in the air. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's weekly inventory data, which showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 105 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 91 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 84 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 25 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.205 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 11% from a record 54.7% at the end of March.
Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending October 7. Net longs totaled 6,288 contracts, down sharply from net longs of 26,166 in the previous week.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for November delivery settled at $85.82 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $3.92, or 4.36%, on the week.
Meanwhile, heating oil for November delivery slumped 2.14% on the week to settle at $2.560 per gallon by close of trade Friday.
Basic commodity prices are trading down today, with crude -1.40% notably, and conversely, Silver and Gold are trading up @ 1.00% and 1.30% Both these precious metals will be a good buy at any dip after gap up open today. USDINR pair is trading -.06%
Edit :
HPCL and BPCL should be an opportunity to go long for the same reason that crude is trading down.
Edit :
HPCL and BPCL should be an opportunity to go long for the same reason that crude is trading down.
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