A view on commodities

[DSM]

NG Inventory :

Expected +78B, Actual +75B. Data is positive for NG.

25/06/2015 20:00:25 : EIA natural gas storage change Exp {+78 B }; Prior { +89 B }; Actual {+75 B }

 

[PreSap]

I usually look at common pairs to gauge the strength or lack thereof. E.g Base metals such as Zinc, Copper, Nickle and Lead should ideally move in the same direction. So one can identify false break in one if it is out of synch with others. Here, I think Copper is the leader as in my view. However, I have a question about the relationship between Gold and Silver. Since only these two make a pair - which one would be a lead indicator? Does Silver mimic Gold? Which would be in case Gold is up, Silver should also move in the same direction..... they usually do move in the same direction, but am only wondering which one can be considered a leader and which one the follower. Any traders have view on this? Thanks.

Hi DSM,

I am definitely not an expert at trading (I am trying to trade only crude but have not been very successful yet)and this is not directly related to your exact question, but here goes….
When you say most metals move in the same direction and one being out of sync shows false break, maybe that can be used as an entry for the "deviant" metal after the break is proved to be false?

Hope this off topic response doesn't take the focus off the actual discussion you have initiated.

 

[DSM]

PreSap,

Thanks for your thoughts.

* If you have been trading crude lately - I had posted the charts which makes it clear that Crude is trading in a range.... So there is a lot of sideways movement, and most strategies would give a loss - unless one looks to book small profits.

* Re. metals - If as per charts in HTF and out of synch with other base metals, yes agree, that the 'deviant' metal can be expected to fall in line with others...

* Again, appreciate your response. Do feel free to post - it is a free forum after all.

TC and good trades!!! :thumb::thumb::thumb:

Hi DSM,

I am definitely not an expert at trading (I am trying to trade only crude but have not been very successful yet)and this is not directly related to your exact question, but here goes….

When you say most metals move in the same direction and one being out of sync shows false break, maybe that can be used as an entry for the "deviant" metal after the break is proved to be false?

Hope this off topic response doesn't take the focus off the actual discussion you have initiated.

 

[Aman1]

An Iranian nuclear deal could bring an influx of oil, but when and how sanctions are lifted could also affect prices.

The deadline for a nuclear deal is June 30, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran. Oil is believed to make up 80% of Iran’s exports, and current sanctions have chopped those exports in half. Iran could potentially add another 800,000 barrels of oil a day to the market within six to nine months, according to Robin Mills, an energy strategist for Manaar Energy. Even though the potential for pumping oil in Iran is strong, deal makers are pushing for sanctions to be lifted gradually instead of immediately.

http://time.com/money/3936141/iran-deal-oil-prices-sanctions/

 

[nirav_j]

Hi DSM,

Whats the max chart - actual trade slippage you've faced in Crude ?

I had a SL @ 3776, got filled at 3777, esignal data - chart shows a high of 3775 for that bar and then it went back down ..

Luckily it didnt blast my other stop at 3779 :clap:

and volume too was 6 lots .. such fills at times make me jittery about placing higher volume orders ..

 

[DSM]

Hi Nirav,

I usually place market order..... so I will not be able to answer.

Hi DSM,

Whats the max chart - actual trade slippage you've faced in Crude ?

I had a SL @ 3776, got filled at 3777, esignal data - chart shows a high of 3775 for that bar and then it went back down ..

Luckily it didnt blast my other stop at 3779 :clap:

and volume too was 6 lots .. such fills at times make me jittery about placing higher volume orders ..

 

[nirav_j]

Hi Nirav,

I usually place market order..... so I will not be able to answer.

Mine was a Cover Order SL ... About time they start bracket orders on MCX .. MKT orders end up taking bid-ask needlessly .. :annoyed:

 

[Shantala]

Crude Oil

http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/07/0...-us-crude?mc_cid=ca7ff48f47&mc_eid=13bff24be2

 

[sangram1705]

PreSap,

Thanks for your thoughts.

* If you have been trading crude lately - I had posted the charts which makes it clear that Crude is trading in a range.... So there is a lot of sideways movement, and most strategies would give a loss - unless one looks to book small profits.

* Re. metals - If as per charts in HTF and out of synch with other base metals, yes agree, that the 'deviant' metal can be expected to fall in line with others...

* Again, appreciate your response. Do feel free to post - it is a free forum after all.

TC and good trades!!! :thumb::thumb::thumb:

GOOD DAY DSM JI,

just wanted 2 update. Fundamentally & technically what are your views.

 

[DSM]

Hi Sangram,

Guess you day trade - and my view is always the same : We need to take a position based on the intraday chart as swings can be volatile and large enough to take off stops of most traders. And my observations is that it is profitable to go with the trend and chart patterns that are established around 12.30 LME open, and around 5.30 US Open.

I am not able to access my system now - will do so tomorrow and post my views......

GOOD DAY DSM JI,

just wanted 2 update. Fundamentally & technically what are your views.