4xpipcounter:help /forecast for ril & sbi

[VJAY]

Dear Paul(4xpipcounter),
Am going to post chart of 2 Biggies of our market...Reliance & SBI....
Hope you will help us here to forecast on weekly basis........

 

[msa5678]

Reliance is on a downward trend. Take advantage of the signals given.. Good luck.

SBI crossed 2746.... so long triggered.

In yesterday's post you had said ""If SBI crosses 2830 it will...."" Then how come SBI triggered long at 2746. Please explain.

 

[4xpipcounter]

VJAY. yesterday, this market just closed just above my WR1, which is 1047.47 at 1047.80. Look for a continued move north towards my WR2 at 1112.63. That could be a decision point for this market. You will also notice it peered above the monthly cloud, with the tenken and kijun following close behind, but leveled, which indicates one of 2 things. Either, it is the beginning of a huge UP, or a volatile mix, which means we could get a strong spike back the other way. A look at the monthly shows it has gone sideways the last 22 months. It should break UP, but when that happens is still open to conjecture. If we get a firm break of the WR2, that could be the first sign.

As far as SBI is concerned , I'm not sure I have that market. I looked on a few of my platforms but could not find it.

Dear Paul(4xpipcounter),
Am going to post chart of 2 Biggies of our market...Reliance & SBI....
Hope you will help us here to forecast on weekly basis........

 

[VJAY]

Dear Paul,
Thanks for your valuable replay...realy it will help us learn forcast some scrips of our market too...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Drooling, The Camarilla pivot levels are some of the best there is. The problem is (And nothing wrong with the pivots, because they work.) no one has shown how to actually trade with them. I have a proprietary set of S&R's. When I post the yearlies on my blog at the end of the year, I get the "oooh and aaaah" effect. They look great on paper, or plotted on a chart. You could easily show, in hindsight, how so many pips or points could have been gotten, but it is another thing to forecast it in advance and actually apply the trade to them. MSA has made a legitimate point. I read quotes like, "Here is the performance for the day (45 points)and the week(358 points)", and "a max of 101 points per lot of Nifty or Rs 5050". Those statements are rather misleading because it leads readers to believe you made those points or are making that money.
Here's another example. You forecasted, "I expect that we should cross the first target level of 5607", then you posted,
"Targets for the day have beebn achieved with Nifty futures crossing 5616. I traded only one lot, so am out of the market."
And then, 14 minutes later, you posted this, "Target 2 also achieved.. 5635.. Time to relax now this week. "
It also sounds good when "Entry at 5366 at the beginning of the week would give 300 points during the week." It all looks good in the rear view mirror.
My friend, there is something wrong with that kind of reporting. This is why we are scratching our heads.

Nothing wrong with what I said. Long actually triggered at 2830. I was just referring the level when I wrote that comment..

 

[4xpipcounter]

You're welcome, VJAY. Now that I am subscribed to the thread, I'll try and be a regular to yours like you are to mine.

Dear Paul,
Thanks for your valuable replay...realy it will help us learn forcast some scrips of our market too...

 

[msa5678]

Drooling, The Camarilla pivot levels are some of the best there is. The problem is (And nothing wrong with the pivots, because they work.) no one has shown how to actually trade with them. I have a proprietary set of S&R's. When I post the yearlies on my blog at the end of the year, I get the "oooh and aaaah" effect. They look great on paper, or plotted on a chart. You could easily show, in hindsight, how so many pips or points could have been gotten, but it is another thing to forecast it in advance and actually apply the trade to them. MSA has made a legitimate point. I read quotes like, "Here is the performance for the day (45 points)and the week(358 points)", and "a max of 101 points per lot of Nifty or Rs 5050". Those statements are rather misleading because it leads readers to believe you made those points or are making that money.
Here's another example. You forecasted, "I expect that we should cross the first target level of 5607", then you posted,
"Targets for the day have beebn achieved with Nifty futures crossing 5616. I traded only one lot, so am out of the market."
And then, 14 minutes later, you posted this, "Target 2 also achieved.. 5635.. Time to relax now this week. "
It also sounds good when "Entry at 5366 at the beginning of the week would give 300 points during the week." It all looks good in the rear view mirror.
My friend, there is something wrong with that kind of reporting. This is why we are scratching our heads.

Hi 4xpipcounter,

Here I would like to add a few points, I had
subscribed to a reputed NIFTY FUTURE Advisor,
(I just wanted to see how they operate....)
On 23rd March, I was advised to go long
@ 5495 with SL @ 5475. The next day
when NF was around 5570, I got this msg,
If you don't want to take risk book profit.
I didn't want to take risk and I booked.
Now every other day the advisor is
revising the SL , Currently he is at 5612.

The point of saying all this is that Market
Prediction is only relative, Eventually all the
targets of all the predictions come true.
Only thing is stick by some system and follow
it. Select a system which has good past records.

 

[4xpipcounter]

MSA,I agree with you 100%. The whole object is developing a system, whatever that might be, to create a consistent increase in the profit curve.
No system is perfect, as all of them will yield some losers. I also did not think that Nifty was going to rise as high as it did. I was expecting a correction starting at 5687. It bounced off that point, but then afterward, just kept on going.
It might be okay to follow an adviser, but the bottom line is if he is good, no one will be a successful at trading his signals as he will be. It's just the nature of it. When I first started trading, I had "secret mentors" that I would follow, and then I developed ideas from there.

Hi 4xpipcounter,

Here I would like to add a few points, I had
subscribed to a reputed NIFTY FUTURE Advisor,
(I just wanted to see how they operate....)
On 23rd March, I was advised to go long
@ 5495 with SL @ 5475. The next day
when NF was around 5570, I got this msg,
If you don't want to take risk book profit.
I didn't want to take risk and I booked.
Now every other day the advisor is
revising the SL , Currently he is at 5612.

The point of saying all this is that Market
Prediction is only relative, Eventually all the
targets of all the predictions come true.
Only thing is stick by some system and follow
it. Select a system which has good past records.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Drooling, I'm not trying to get on my high horse in saying this, but I've been looking at and studying charts and systems for almost 7 years. Respectfully, I'm telling you beyond any shadow of a doubt there is not a system around that will not yield a false signal. If that was the case, everyone on this site and every other site would be lining up to trade it.

I don't want to sound like I am implying you are not trading with consistent profits. As good as the Camarilla system is, it too gives false signals, which is why, even in your thread your encouraged people to use stops. There's no need for stops if you could guarantee no false signals. I have the indicator for the Camarilla signals. I can show false signals (Only the exception to the rule.) on every market. It's just the nature of things.

Accompanied is a chart of the EUR/USD. My S&R's and my total trading system, I have supreme confidence in. Having said that the 1st arrow points to a false break, and the 2nd arrow points to a perfect entry.

If I plot the Camarilla on this chart or any other one, I can show how it yields a false break, which again, is why we need stops.

I'm not trying to show you up. I'm not trying to demean you as a trader, not demeaning Camarilla. The points I made are still valid, as I'm sure even most casual readers will agree.

4xpipcounter, I am actually doing the trades that I am publishing and also show the trading tracking efficiency, so there is nothing theoretical about it. Also having some folks actually tracking and using the trades in real time is something which is done now, to only improve the confidence on this system. I have reached a stage, where false signals are now eliminated from the system that I use.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Drooling, I never expected you to have a grudge against my comments. I don't know what I said that gave you that impression.
As far as your comments are concerned in this post, we agree.
All I did was address some of the issues in my earlier posts.

4xpipcounter, I have no grudge against any of your comments. You are surely entitled to a point of view exactly as anyone else.

My approach to trading is simple - use a technical approach that has a consistent and well defined set of rules for entry and exit. The exact technicals used - Camarilla or moving averages or anything else doesnt matter. That is the operational part.

If you have a process that can work consistently that gets you out of capital destroying trades, that is the system for me. And that is the only direction I am working with. Profits come as a result of that.

The system that I use now, minimises losses so long as processes are followed, and I am happy with its results. It also generates well defined trading signals and false move warnings which keeps one alert and watchful.

It also has a numeric measure for enabling me to verify how effective I have been, therefore, providing a means for improving the next trade.

False moves are what they are, if you dont have a process to manage them. So long as you can detect them and have a tactic to handle them, then you have a good system to work with. That is what I meant about them - reducing the impact of their occurence.. and you can sleep peacefully every night.

Finally, about Camarilla - its a method which can be tailored to develop an effective trading framework, thats it.

Thats my point of view.