A view on commodities

Nobody that I know of... Best is to learn and trade on your own.

Thanks a lot .Very kind of you to post these useful links!:clap::clap::thumb:
Take Care!

Crude shoots up on Saudi output cut, U.S. data (Edited excerpt)

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-shoots-up-on-saudi-output-cut,-u.s.-data-314061

(Crude closed at 5,035 on MCX up .46% from previous close. However, internationally, crude is trading higher at 2%+ based on the news that Saudi Arabia has cut its output. In my view, other countries may also go in for a production cut with a view to boost oil prices. But how long the prices will remain up, is a question, as in my opinion crude will be sold into at higher levels.... Unfortunately tomorrow MCX is closed for trading, so an opportunity to trade out of narrow, volatile market is lost tomorrow. We now need to see how crude trades tomorrow and if it can carry forward the gains......)

Investing.com - Oil prices shot up on Thursday on news Saudi Arabia trimmed output in September to support the market, while upbeat U.S. data and earnings boosted prices by stoking hopes for a more robust U.S. recovery.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for delivery in December traded up 1.52% at $81.74 a barrel during U.S. trading, up from a session low of $80.06 a barrel and off a high of $82.34 a barrel.

The December contract settled at $80.52 a barrel on Wednesday. Support for the commodity was seen at $79.10 a barrel, last Thursday's low, and resistance at $83.26 a barrel, Tuesday's high. Oil prices got a boost after Saudi Arabia said it cut crude oil production by about 328,000 barrels in September to a total of 9.36 million barrels.

London-traded Brent prices have fallen nearly 26% since June, while WTI futures are down almost 23% from a recent peak of $107.50 in June.
Concerns over weakening global demand combined with indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support oil markets have weighed on prices in recent weeks.

OPEC oil output hit a two-year high of 31 million barrels per day in September, led by higher production from Iraq and Libya. Some market analysts believe that only a cut in production by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices.
Oil ministers from the 12-member group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on Nov. 27 to consider whether to adjust their production target for early 2015.
Elsewhere, bullish data out of the U.S. gave oil a boost as well on expectations that a more robust U.S. economy will consume more fuel and energy.

isn't evening session open for trading?

You can trade in mcx today 5 pm to 11.30pm

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
For week ending October 17, 2014 | Released: October 23, 2014 . | Next Release: October 30, 2014
Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,393 Bcf as of Friday, October 17, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 336 Bcf less than last year at this time and 338 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,731 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 142 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 47 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 161 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,200 Bcf after a net injection of 39 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 36 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 8 Bcf. At 3,393 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2009 through 2013.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Gold : Bearish? - Jordan Roy. : Edited excerpt

http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-rebounds-on-miners’-backs-230210

Several weeks ago the entire precious-metals space was extremely oversold and due for at the least, a reflex rally. Gold was down in nine of twelve weeks with Silver off in eleven of those twelve weeks. The miners experienced a nasty September and were down five consecutive weeks. With Gold rallying from $1185 to $1255, we would expect Silver and the mining stocks to rebound strongly in percentage terms. However, those markets have lagged Gold badly. The mining stocks are essentially back to their lows and Silver hasn’t fared much better. The recent stark underperformance of Silver and the mining stocks especially is a warning sign of further downside.

Gold Weekly Chart :

It's On: LNG Vs. Oil : Edited excerpt

http://www.investing.com/analysis/it's-on:-lng-vs.-oil-230209

(The recent decision of Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, saw a jump of 2%+ in price of crude. But with over all demand for oil remaining weak, and a supply glut, traders took the opportunity of the spike in prices to sell off, and crude gave up it's gain based on the news. (Once again reinforcing the adage that we should trade not based on the news, but seeing how market reacts to the news) It now seems that all fundamentals and technicals ahead for oil are bearish, and lower crude prices will only be good news for importing countries such as ours. With further weakening of oil prices, and with the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley calling for a cut in interest rate, (Not to forget PM Modi's scheduled meeting with Chairmen of the banks) the scenario looks likely that there will be interest rate cuts ahead, cheering up the market on it's way to make new highs.)

Imagine yourself in Australia or Qatar, two of the top liquid natural gas (LNG) exporters in the world. You’re living it up, selling LNG to energy-strapped Japan for $15 per million British thermal units (BTUs).But then, natural gas from the United States sells for a November delivery at about $4 per million BTUs on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That price is outrageously low, especially when you consider the cost of transforming natural gas into a liquefied state, then freezing the liquid and shipping it to the other side of the world. Suddenly, your cushy export business is devastated. When the United States joins the LNG export fray late next year, that nightmare could turn into reality. America will likely send LNG to Japan and other big importers for close to $10 per million BTUs, a third of current prices. But this is just the beginning of the global energy battle. And an unexpected threat is rising.

Shots Fired
That threat is the unexpected plunge in oil prices. At a recent gathering in London, LNG producers were seriously concerned by a continued decline in oil prices. You see, for LNG producers, the price of natural gas isn’t really a competitive threat -- but the price of oil is. That’s because oil is considered the substitute energy source for LNG, not gas. At this point, I’m sure you’re aware of the flooded oil market and dropping prices. The maximum pain point for LNG producers is around $60 per barrel of oil and a little higher for those in Australia and Qatar.

Will Saving Switzerland’s Gold Save The Day? - Ipek Ozkardeskaya

(Gold traders and investors should mark Nov. 30th, the day Switzerland decides if SNB (The Swiss National Bank should hold 20% of its reserve in gold. As per the article below, the vote will likely be no, but in the run up to the date, it is likely that the prices of gold may move up higher based on the old wall street adage : Buy on rumor, sell on news. Interesting times ahead)

http://www.investing.com/analysis/will-saving-switzerland’s-gold-save-the-day-230064

On November 30th, Swiss people will vote to decide whether

- The SNB should hold 20% of its reserves in gold,
- The gold reserves should be stored in Switzerland,
- The SNB should be allowed to sell its gold reserves.

The recent polls revealed 45% support for the campaign, while we believe that the likelihood of a “yes” vote is limited. Both chambers of Swiss parliament are heavily opposed to the “golden cage”. One thing is sure: polls tend to be unstable and therefore should inject some volatility to relatively quiet Swiss markets in month ahead.

In a recent interview, Swiss Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumph said the current 1,040 tons of gold reserve is more than sufficient to taper risk-off periods. To which we add that the negative correlation breakdowns since 2007 crisis has proven that the gold is not a perfect hedge nowadays. Nor a source of stability. As the VIX index surged 80% in October 2008, the 1-month realized volatility in XAU/USD spiked to 56%, the 1-month implied vol neared 58%. This is certainly not a track record one seeks in a safe-haven investment.

In this respect, to condemn one fifth of SNB’s balance sheet to a risk asset is not efficient from a portfolio point of view. Even if this was the case, there is no restriction preventing SNB from allocating 20% of its assets into gold.
The SNB currently holds about 8% of its reserves in gold (USD 43bn of gold holdings versus CHF 522bn balance sheet). Introducing the potential 20% bottom will therefore require a sizeable market operation, the necessity is somewhat uncertain. Especially regarding the quantities on table, a 1500-ton XAU-long operation (in five year period) can hardly be profitable for the SNB. Given that the annual mine production nears 3000 tons, this would mean that the SNB would buy 10% of world’s mine production per year during the five next years. This additional gold demand can only push the gold prices higher and increase the cost of the operation. In addition, a “yes” vote will certainly boost speculative demand and provide an additional leveraged lift to the market, pushing the gold prices disproportionally higher! At the end of the game, the SNB would only constitute an expensive reserve in a quiet risky asset.

The gold initiative is therefore a heavy constraint on SNB strategy and would only limit the independence and efficiency of SNB’s investment activities. In fact, the SNB, unlike its worldwide peers, has a meaningful maneuver margin on its activities. While the majority of its counterparts invest mostly in sovereign bonds, the SNB has the flexibility to hold 30% of its balance sheet in foreign assets, corporate or sovereign, which provides interesting geographical diversification and undisputable time advantage. In 2008, the SNB opened a branch in Singapore “to extend its coverage of markets in Asia”, “to ensure a more efficient management of its assets in the Asia-Pacific region” and more importantly to “facilitate round-the-clock operations on the FX market”. It would only be dangerous and expensive to narrow SNB’s maneuver margin. The SNB has already an important constraint: it should defend its 1.20 floor versus the euro. The situation in the Euro-zone remains alarming with the possibility of QE introduction in the close future. Although we do not see an immediate impact on the franc, the SNB clearly needs to keep the entire control at hand, and that rules out the sizeable 20% gold constraint that a “yes” vote would require.

Thanks a lot for each of your informative and useful posts

There was news connected with crude ..will paste the link here .Wouldn't like to influence any traders mind , but this may be handy ,to be aware of things that may come to pass,in days to come ,regarding crude and NG .

"The meltdown in the oil market is not over yet."

That's the message from Jeffrey Gundlach, the star bond investor

http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/23/investing/oil-price-go-to-70-jeffrey-gundlach-doubleline/