60 min Flow in International Commodities.

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Prabhjeet

Prabhjeet

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#151
#151
Now this the chart of HDIL I had traded myself. Back in October , the usually Calm HDIL went Beserk and I could not understand why, suddenly I stopped making money, infact I started to loose money using Pivots,


I stepped back and after a few days a /\/\ was totally visible to me, staring at the Face, I drew the Envelope, waited for it to break and you can see, what did I get after the break

I had talked to some members about this range on 60 min. flow thread, I will try to show it on charts now

 
Prabhjeet

Prabhjeet

Well-Known Member
#152
#152
Thing with ranges is that they are not obvious immediately on Charts, but there is one method that never fails i.e. YOU START LOOSING MONEY using Trending methods.

Once I am whipsawed 3 -4 times in a row, I get back and start to see if there is some /\/\ or \/\/ forming and most of the times there will be one if your Pivots are loosing money.

So what do we do, get back and refuse to trade until this Envelope is broken, we can wait patiently because you can see on HDIL charts, how much patience pays.

There might be some differences of views on boundary of envelopes but even a slight difference will still keep you out of Choppy Ranged Markets.


If anyone wants to see ranges, open the Daily charts of Nifty, DLF, HDIL, RIL, CRUDE, etc. You will definetely start seeing /\/\ or \/\/
 
beethoven

beethoven

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#153
#153
Prabh,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and all this is very interesting.

1. About Pivots aggressive pivots require very close monitoring and that is not possible on 60 min chart for 14 hours on commodity trading. So per force we have to trade major pivots on 60 min flow or go in for daily charts where we can play aggressive pivots as SAR has to be set only once a day at the start. Then if we have the time and energy, monitor the movement, as we feel best during the day.
2. Your idea of drawing envelops in also very good. But the flow method will generate money if you play aggressive pivots then each up swing and down swing (within the envelop) will generate some money if your filters are not huge but you will end up taking lots of trades. But I think 60 min on commodities is very difficult to manage.
3. One thing I have tried with some success with NF is to delink exit and entry. In flow method we exit and enter at the same price (point). In flow method, in a reversal we give back profits and wait till price hits SAR. That is the area I call no trade zone. No point being in trade in this zone. I exit at the higher end and wait for either SAR to be hit or the add point to be hit to enter again. As the brokerage is only around 4 points of nifty futures whereas we tend to loose around 25 to even 50 points in some cases. This again requires very close monitoring and some art is involved in this. Again it may not be possible for 14 hours of commodity trading but is very much possible in daily charts. In fact, I am saying the same thing that you are saying with your envelope technique.:)
4. So basically in commodities for 60 min, play major pivots and for daily charts play aggressive pivots. One more reason for playing aggressive pivot is that you will be in trade daily whereas if you wait for envelop breakouts you may have to wait for many days or even weeks. Lets see if aggressive pivots on daily charts work or not. Some back testing with various filters will have to be done.

Some thoughts:)

Bee
 
ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

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#154
#154
great gng prabhjeet :)

very nice posts...keep it up friend......very knowledgable........

and agree with ur aproach on gold....laid back......chill kinda.....same with me....hav been watching 4 sum time now...

was out of touch with d thread........just saw all posts today......



regards

neeraj
 
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ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

Well-Known Member
#155
#155
please....no aggressive approach on gold.......gold is very pure kinda thing..........

agressivness will hurt u in gold......also i dun understand y u guys got short on friday :(

will try to explain in posts ahead......


santosh soo sry....was bit caught up in work so couldn't post.......

a bit late...but find all d posts ahead...... :)


regards

neeraj
 
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ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

Well-Known Member
#156
#156
santhosh44 said:
Neeraj.. Still waiting for your tip on how to identify clear/healthy pivots (using RSI ?) ..
Click to expand...
here is d link 4 discussions relating to rsi that i am posting ahead...u cn study deeply 4m here
http://www.traderji.com/equities/25356-live-discussion-saints-60-minute-flow-59.html

prabhjeetrana said:
Satya I would nt have taken the short trade had I been trading Nifty, it doesnt pass my RSI signal Filter, have a look

The areas marked in circle are Valid Pivots for me atleast

Click to expand...
prabhjeetrana said:
RSI actually measures the Overbought (reading above 70) and oversold (reading below 30) levels for any entity we are trading.

But here we dont use RSI to catch tops and bottoms as most people try to use. Here we are using the basic tenant of Saint's theory that in an Uptrend we have progressively higher pivot lows and vice versa for Downtrend.

Now when I am using RSI in Uptrending stock, a stock will keep on moving up and RSI will be above 50 now if the stock declines for sometime the RSI will dip below 50 and then it will start to rally again and if we have a healthy rally the RSI will again move above 50 so that marks a Pivot low for me.

Now why I use RSI for filtering Pivots is because sometimes in an Uptrend we get a decline that is very shallow and we tend to get whipsawed taking the Pivot break of such Shallow Decline, hence RSI will give us signal only when we get a healthy decline.

Secondly it solves the problem of which sideways movement to use as Pivot, when we have a slightly longer consolidation the RSI will dip below 50 and if it manages to rise above 50, that would be a valid Pivot, if it stays below 50 wait for it to rally above 50.


Some people may not agree with 50 line for using Pivot deciding levels, you may try 60\40 or 70\30 levels for deciding Pivots, but I am ok with 50 levels.

If you want more laid back approach use RSI of more than 3 which I have used and if you want to make it more agressive you can scale it down to 1 but I have found RSI (3) ok for me.

Please dont try to prove this view correct or incorrect, if you backtest it, you will certainly see its useful but it may not suit everybody's personality. It suits me so I am using it

Regards
Click to expand...
neeraj.h said:
Centerline Crossover
The centerline for RSI is 50. Readings above and below can give the indicator a bullish or bearish tilt. On the whole, a reading above 50 indicates that average gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.



dis is what i have read ..........

go thru dis for details about rsi.......

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....hnical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi

thanks prabhjeet fr dis centre line thing........

thanks really.....i completely get what u wanna say using centree line 50.......

it will b much clear to all after gng thru above site......POSTED BY SAINT SIR IN TEACH A MAN TO FISH :D

am just re-posting it.....:)


and yeah 1 mre thing......prabhjeet u just solved my problem of viewing clear pivots in GOLD charts...........on 29 dec we had a good fall in gold....but i was unabe to reverse it......but now using ur indicator...it is much clear where i wud hav reversed......nd on d upper side...i.e. when we r short d opposite will apply....i.e. above 50 if rsi goes....and comes down....den it is a healthy pivot.......


regards

neeraj :)
Click to expand...

following posts r 4m our very own sunil da........

very nicely explained rsi

tsunil4u said:
TECHNICAL INDICATORS - SLOW STOCHS + RSI

Ok, so now you have your support & resistance levels, pivotal levels, etc... but still one may be hesitant to initiate a trade. Wish someone was there to TELL us when to go ahead and and enter long/short...

Well, I personally use two indicators RSI & SLOW STOCHS for my intraday trades...

I won't get into definitions & technical stuff of the above. To the point, how to use it...

RSI:
In your market-watch window, right-click on NIFTY FUT - 1M (ie the current series' nifty future), select "Intraday Chart"...
A tick-by-tick live intraday chart of NF will pop up in new window. There will be an option to change the timeframe (TF) of the chart... Select 1 minute. Also, change the chart type from line to candlestick (this change of type is not necessary)... So, instead of tick-by-tick chart, you'll have the 1 minute chart in front of you (of the current session)... Now, select Relative Stength Index (RSI) from "Indicators" menu and in the parameters pop-up window, select 14.
RSI gives the over-bought & over-sold status of nifty future in form of numbers...
at or below 30 level is supposed to be over-sold... an upmove is due
at or above 70 level is supposed to be over-bought.. a down move can be expected...

SLOW STOCHS:
i prefer slow stoch over 5 day charts parameter. there's this website which has the intraday chart of NIFTY SPOT + slow stoch + RSI...

http://niftyintraday.googlepages.com/nifty50

it updates itself automatically every minute.

It's the crossover of slow stochs at a partular level which indicates buy or sell...
crossover at or above 80 is signal for sell
crossover at or below 20 is signal for buy

One should start booking profit partly when it reaches or crosses 50..

Now, as in case of other indicators, there are some days when only one side of the signal has to be followed.
Like, in these bearish days, it's always better to short when RSI / Slow stoch gives the necessary signal... and to avoid the buy signals... ie SHORT ON RALLIES, INSTEAD OF BOTTOM FISHING....
read this for more info:
http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/lessons20080208.shtm

THESE INDICATORS WILL FAIL ON BIG TREND-REVERSAL DAYS... eg, they will indicate over-bought for more than 30 minutes, but still one may not find significant downmove. Such days happen once in a while, and market mood itself will indicate whether the main focus should be to buy on dips or sell on rallies....

(here's the recent 5 day chart of nifty spot + slow stoch attached)

one may paper-trade for some days, to confirm & build confidence.. REMEMBER, THESE INDICATORS ARE SECONDARY... MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE INTRADAY NIFTY FUT CHART & YOUR LEVELS...
i would rate these indicators 90% on success ratio... but it's only with experience, one can use such indicators accurately...

slow stoch + RSI + RSR level of NIFTY FUT
- a lethal combination to enter a position...

http://www.traderji.com/attachments...406-nifty-futures-trading-intraday-stochs.png
Click to expand...

these r the posts which will help u understand rsi......

any queries please post them...out of my lil experiance i will try to solve....prabhjeet is here and all seniors :)--)

regards

neeraj
 
ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

Well-Known Member
#157
#157
suggestion....

rsi is bit of a advanced approach .. but if understood correctly its easy to use.....

rsi needs screen experience.....i mentioned rsi here coz i think it is very much required in gold trading....it is very important and essential to know about this here....

different time frame hav diff. rsi.......if we r 60 min flow traders....we concentrate only on 60 min flow rsi.....

were 60 min flow rsi is 50 ....dat is not overbought not oversold........15 min timeframe may show 70 as rsi which is overbought.......

what is a decline on 15 mins time frame may not b visible on 60 min charts........

so b aware of this fact....and use only 60 min rsi while trading 60 min flow.....

dun get confused and paniced by 30 min rsi n all.......


there are sum settings in rsi.....that is no. of days......now 14 is the default 1 ......that shows rsi based on 14 days...for pivot identification we use 3 days


as prabhjeet mentioned : For me a Pivot should show some retacement that is clearly visible, not just a spike of 1 bar.

so dis is also visible on rsi ... as rsi indicates selling and buying strengths....

study thoroughly prabhjeets above posts they say it all.....study rsi ... u will get to understand what all this is about........


rsi also hav sum exceptions.......those exceptions will b points where ur eye will tell a different story.....and indicator will not giv perfect readings above 50 or below 50 dat we use......i will try to post charts......do a bit of analysis....using EYEBALLS INDICATOR.....u will know.......go with the eye as saint sir always says.....


so u look at charts......look for VISUAL pivots.....look at rsi.......u will knw and get the feel what to do.....



regards

neeraj
 
ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

Well-Known Member
#158
#158
i really found it quite difficult to get ieod data for 2 yrs......

somehow got it after so much trouble..... :)

so for all the friends here who want to trade gold, crude, copper, nickel, silver.....and want to sincerely backtest these instruments.....here is my lil gift to all of u :)

2 years ieod data.....4 all dese instruments...........2007 and 2008

http://www. 4 sha red . com/account/dir/11641952/ed6697e5/sharing.html?sId=G6ORP5wsKqoNWsVq
 
ThE HaMmEr

ThE HaMmEr

Well-Known Member
#159
#159
prabhjeet sir.....please do add if i am missing nething.....or if there is nething that i have stated wrong in above posts....

i have learnt so much from you....this pivot identifying using rsi hav helped me a lot...and u hav much more experience in dis.....please do share about this.....

i will soon try to post some recent charts with reference to rsi.....please do share some of ur charts.....

also i think there r some exceptions in RSi......i will post some recent 1's .... if i am stating dis correct...u also post...



thank u :)


regards

neeraj
 
prasadam

prasadam

Well-Known Member
#160
#160
neeraj.h said:
i really found it quite difficult to get ieod data for 2 yrs......

somehow got it after so much trouble..... :)

so for all the friends here who want to trade gold, crude, copper, nickel, silver.....and want to sincerely backtest these instruments.....here is my lil gift to all of u :)

2 years ieod data.....4 all dese instruments...........2007 and 2008

http://www. 4 sha red . com/account/dir/11641952/ed6697e5/sharing.html?sId=G6ORP5wsKqoNWsVq
Click to expand...
Thank you Neeraj.
 
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