My trade setups

Anurag N

Active Member
#91
PRESTIGE

Trade Status: Filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.29

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 1232.10

Target Price: 1380

Stop Price: 1117.40

View attachment 50673

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is in a good momentum right now. This stock in this sector is consolidating in a range as of now, after a massive bull run. It looks like it can rebound from the current price as it is testing multiple SPHs together


ENTRY REASONING

Strong support below the current price.


TARGET REASONING

Top zone of the weekly time frame range. Maybe will keep a partial position in case it attempts to breakout from the range


STOP REASONING

Failing all the SPH tests followed by the high vol support bar. If it does, then it will probably go near the bottom of the range which is too deep and doesn't make sense to hold if trading on a daily time frame.
Update on this position-

Today the price of PRESTIGE reached till 1355 and stayed there till the end of the market. This price is just 1.8% away from my mentioned expected target (read the reference post for the setup). I closed 50% of my position at the end of market @1355.

Although this hasn't reached the exact target, It would be very stupid to leave the entire 100% exposed over the weekend just to grab the remaining 2%. Also the price is anyhow in the upper zone of the daily range, so it can quickly reverse if the coming Monday is not so supportive.

Kept the remaining 50% in the hope of a breakout on the daily range. In case it doesn't show any strength of breakout on Monday, I will close this 50% as well.
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#92
Update on this position-

Today the price of PRESTIGE reached till 1355 and stayed there till the end of the market. This price is just 1.8% away from my mentioned expected target (read the reference post for the setup). I closed 50% of my position at the end of market @1355.

Although this hasn't reached the exact target, It would be very stupid to leave the entire 100% exposed over the weekend just to grab the remaining 2%. Also the price is anyhow in the upper zone of the daily range, so it can quickly reverse if the coming Monday is not so supportive.

Kept the remaining 50% in the hope of a breakout on the daily range. In case it doesn't show any strength of breakout on Monday, I will close this 50% as well.
Update on this position-

As mentioned in my last post, I didn't want to expose 100% of this position in case of a reversal the next day and hence sold 50% on Friday itself. Today the reversal did take place.
By the end of the market, a 2 bar reversal pattern is formed (going above and closing below the last bar with lesser volume). This indicates that it may further go for more correction.
It would have been very foolish to sit with this position seeing the winner turning into a looser. Hence I closed this position today at the end of the market. I sold my remaining 50% position @1325.11
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#93
As I mentioned in one of my previous post (quoted above), the steel industry looked very bullish and I was waiting for an opportunity to take some position here. Now it looks like a good time to make an entry, as market has done some corrections here and it looks ready to take a bounce.
I mentioned that JSWSTEEL looks strong. Along with JSWSTEEL, I scanned through other Metal industry stocks as well. Another name that looked interesting was GRAVITA. I'll be sharing my thesis for both these stocks down below so that you guys can decide which one to pick (or a mix of both).

1. JSWSTEEL

This is doing a multiple swing point retest on daily timeframe. More the number of swing points, higher the chances of regeneration. Also, this is supported by multiple high vol bars. The retest is happening with less vol which also supports the chances of a bounce from here.
View attachment 50699

I am targeting the price of 876.45, which is where it will start facing the first selling pressure. I am keeping my stop at 812.20. This is the point where all the 3 swing points will fail the retests and my thesis of regeneration will be proven wrong. The reward-risk ratio here is around 1.0 which is average. The next stock which I picked works better on the R/R front.

2. GRAVITA

This is also doing a retest on the daily timeframe, although this is retesting only one swing point. There is also good support vol provided by the breakout bar. The price here is at the bottom of the retest zone, which makes the RR ratio quite lucrative.

View attachment 50700
I am targeting price of 1090 which is the first resistance zone. I am keeping the stop at 926.70, which is where it will fail the swing point test and penetrate below the supporting bar. The reward-risk ratio here is 3.19

Both the stocks mentioned-above have some pros and cons. JSWSTEEL has more chances of successful regeneration, as it is testing multiple swing points and has way more supporting anchor bars. On the other hand, GRAVITA has more lucrative R/R. Also these are very different in terms of market cap (JSWSTEEL is a largecap whereas GRAVITA is a microcap stock). You can choose whichever fits well with your portfolio mix.
Update on GRAVITA position-

One position from the above worked out and the other didn't. JSWSTEEL worked as per the thesis and hit the target (check the earlier posts for reference). GRAVITA didn't work out as expected and started breaching my stop today. Closed this position @930.
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#94
CENTRAKBK

Trade Status: Active

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.34

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 66.20

Target Price: 76.40

Stop Price: 59.10

Weekly-
1714707373521.png


Daily-
1714707391985.png


WHY THIS TRADE

Finance sector looks to breakout, at least for short term. This one seems to make a range and currently lying at the bottom of the range


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest on 2 SPHs


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Penetrating below the range
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#95
CENTRAKBK

Trade Status: Active

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.34

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 66.20

Target Price: 76.40

Stop Price: 59.10

Weekly-
View attachment 50766

Daily-
View attachment 50767

WHY THIS TRADE

Finance sector looks to breakout, at least for short term. This one seems to make a range and currently lying at the bottom of the range


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest on 2 SPHs


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Penetrating below the range
Update on this position-

This one didn't go as expected and hit the stop. Closed the entire position @59.10
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#96
GODREJPROP

Trade Status: To be filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.10

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 2535.80

Target Price: 2692

Stop Price: 2394.40

View attachment 50726

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is doing really good with nice momentum on it. This is making a short term range which, if broken, will be upwards


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest with more than 6 bars gap


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of daily range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Failing the SPH test and high vol support
Update on this position-

This position reached the expected target on 6th May. I didn't sell it at that time as it closed with a very strong anchor bar (a 10% spike). In the last week it showed some weakness and started forming a short term range. Today it tried breaking down from this range. I sold 50% of my position @2640.
Post my selling, this stock did some correction along with the overall market and got back in the range (one of those cases where price moves back up as soon as you sell off ). Anyhow, I still have the 50% position active and will try to sell this near the top of this range.

1715597942853.png
 

Attachments

Anurag N

Active Member
#97
Update on this position-

This position reached the expected target on 6th May. I didn't sell it at that time as it closed with a very strong anchor bar (a 10% spike). In the last week it showed some weakness and started forming a short term range. Today it tried breaking down from this range. I sold 50% of my position @2640.
Post my selling, this stock did some correction along with the overall market and got back in the range (one of those cases where price moves back up as soon as you sell off ). Anyhow, I still have the 50% position active and will try to sell this near the top of this range.

View attachment 50818
Update on this position-

As mentioned in the last post, I targeted the remaining 50% of my position here near the top of the daily range. Got the opportunity today to square off this as soon as the market opened. Closed this position @2820.
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#98
GODREJCP

Trade Status: To be filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.00

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 1279.50

Target Price: 1350

Stop Price: 1208.80

1715831726265.png


WHY THIS TRADE

FMCG has regenerated after a long time being stuck in range. It is expected to rally, at least in the short term. This stock among FMCG is very strong and is being tested at a point where it should get bought very quickly


ENTRY REASONING

multiple retests on multiple time frames. On daily it is getting tested after >6 bars.


TARGET REASONING

Back to the highs


STOP REASONING

Failing both the daily SPHs

*Disclaimer- The stock information provided is for educational purpose only. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
 

Anurag N

Active Member
#99
TRIVENI

Trade Status: Active

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.84

Time Frame: Weekly

Entry Price: 355.50

Target Price: 390

Stop Price: 314.40

Weekly-
1715853408121.png


Daily-
1715853427004.png


WHY THIS TRADE

Industrial sector is very strong. This looks to give a rally on long term, On short term, it is at worst range bound and lying near the bottom of the range


ENTRY REASONING

multiple retests on daily time frame. Price supported by multiple high vol bars


TARGET REASONING

Top of the weekly range for now. Hoping to break this range and give a fresh rally


STOP REASONING

Penetrating below the weekly range

*Disclaimer- The stock information provided is for educational purpose only and are not recommendatory. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
 

Anurag N

Active Member
MMTC

Trade Status: Active

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 72%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.92

Time Frame: Weekly

Entry Price: 76.15

Target Price: 89.20

Stop Price: 61.90

Weekly-
1716361473777.png


Daily-
1716361502617.png


WHY THIS TRADE

Services sector is performing good and has high potential to b/o from current range with market momentum. This stock in services has broken out strongly on long term and can carry this momentum, at least till the immediate highs


ENTRY REASONING

Short term trend is very extended. Should transition anytime now. Price is also lying very near to multiple SPHs. Also, well supported by multiple anchor bars


TARGET REASONING

Primary target would be near the highs where it left volume. If momentum continues, Fib projections are going till 140 area


STOP REASONING

Penetrating below the weekly range
 

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