daSARa system

Gandhar.

Gandhar.

Well-Known Member
#521
#521
augubhai are the red volume bar for only the first high volume bar??
dont look its for above avg or unusual bars
sry if it breaks the sequence of post if u are gonna post them in sequence
 
augubhai

augubhai

Well-Known Member
#522
#522
Gandhar. said:
augubhai are the red volume bar for only the first high volume bar??
dont look its for above avg or unusual bars
sry if it breaks the sequence of post if u are gonna post them in sequence
Click to expand...
Yes. After the red bar, the average volume increases. So, the next bar has to be much bigger to be categorized as high volume. May not be the best logic. On the 15 min, the high volume bars appear more consistent.
 
augubhai

augubhai

Well-Known Member
#526
#526
Today's analysis was not so good, especially the 2nd move up. This whole OI analysis thing is mumbo-jumbo to me, and I was genuinely surprised when it worked. Here are the comments time stamped on the chart.

Commento 1:
augubhai said:
Unable to read any clear cues today, though bias is definitely up - lower strikes have -ve change in Call OI. Maybe, market is waiting for a small cue from WPI. Remember, there is a big fluid zone above 6300.
Click to expand...
Commento 2:
augubhai said:
Upside over 6300 still looks iffy to me, because OI in 63C > Oi in 63P, but +ve WPI figures could change that in minutes.

Upside is clear until 6350, then small congestion till 6365, and then again clear till 6400+

Downside after 6300, resistance at 6250.
Click to expand...
Commento 3:
augubhai said:
one important clue to watch for is the Call OI at 6350. Change is -88K now, and will accelerate on a breakout. This means weakening resistance at 6350 in anticipation of a breakout. Will watch the show at 12 noon...
Click to expand...
Commento 4:
augubhai said:
Short blind with stop above HOD if 63C OI rises to 5.3M. Currently, it is 5.27M.
Click to expand...
Commento 5:
augubhai said:
Might be late if we wait for 5.3M. Can take risky short now, because bias turning. 2 reasons.

1. 63C OI still > 63P (though not rising as much as I would have liked)
2. I would have expected 6350C OI to reduce by 100K+, but it's only down by 81K
Click to expand...
Commento 6:
augubhai said:
Surprise. 53C OI increased, but very late. What to make of it? I am betting on more downside.
Click to expand...
Commento 7:
augubhai said:
It has risen 10 points from the lows. If goes to 6300, short again. 53C still rising.
Click to expand...
Commento 8:
augubhai said:
Short for target 6250. Support at 6250 same as yesterday.
Click to expand...
Commento 9:
augubhai said:
So that turned out to be a bad call. And the major problem with the Call was that I did not mention SL. Anyway, I was thinking that it might pierce 6300, but not by this much. Looking at the OI, my bias is still short, and I think an entry with SL 6311 for target 6250 is good.
Click to expand...
Commento 10:
augubhai said:
Paper SL hit :(, taking a break from analysis mumbo-jumbo....

Actual position long :)
Click to expand...
 
augubhai

augubhai

Well-Known Member
#527
#527
Was backtesting another system. Original plan was to develop it for long options, but again...

This is for 30 Min NF - SAR - no adds - wide SAR/SL. Trades based on trend and high volume bars. Trend is identified using multiple moving averages, similar to Guppy. And high volume bars get special treatment.

System mostly gives 1 trades, rarely gives 3 trades, and on occasion Dec 26, gave 4 trades.

I liked the results better than those of this system... http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/90116-dasara-system-52.html#post924533. So I have chucked that system, and used this system today. I plan to trade this system with a position size 50% of my ORB trades.

Results of all trades from August until yesterday:
Code: 
Month	Trades	Gross pts	Cost=2 pts	Cost=3 pts	Cost=4 pts	Cost=5 pts	Cost=6 pts	Avg. Gross
Aug	30	560.00	500.00	470.00	440.00	410.00	380.00	18.67
Sep	25	337.75	287.75	262.75	237.75	212.75	187.75	13.51
Oct	34	305.12	237.12	203.12	169.12	135.12	101.12	8.97
Nov	27	121.05	67.05	40.05	13.05	-13.95	-40.95	4.48
Dec	30	23.30	-36.70	-66.70	-96.70	-126.70	-156.70	0.78
Jan	21	165.40	123.40	102.40	81.40	60.40	39.40	7.88
								
	167	1512.62	1178.62	1011.62	844.62	677.62	510.62	9.06

Now the stats breakup for the first trades, second trades, etc.

First trade
Code: 
Trade 1								
Month	Trades	Gross pts	Cost=2 pts	Cost=3 pts	Cost=4 pts	Cost=5 pts	Cost=6 pts	Avg. Gross
Aug	22	458.20	414.20	392.20	370.20	348.20	326.20	20.83
Sep	19	384.65	346.65	327.65	308.65	289.65	270.65	20.24
Oct	23	264.12	218.12	195.12	172.12	149.12	126.12	11.48
Nov	18	129.55	93.55	75.55	57.55	39.55	21.55	7.20
Dec	19	137.70	99.70	80.70	61.70	42.70	23.70	7.25
Jan	14	-8.95	-36.95	-50.95	-64.95	-78.95	-92.95	-0.64
								
	115	1365.27	1135.27	1020.27	905.27	790.27	675.27	11.87
Second trade
Code: 
Trade 2								
Month	Trades	Gross pts	Cost=2 pts	Cost=3 pts	Cost=4 pts	Cost=5 pts	Cost=6 pts	Avg. Gross
Aug	8	101.80	85.80	77.80	69.80	61.80	53.80	12.73
Sep	6	-46.90	-58.90	-64.90	-70.90	-76.90	-82.90	-7.82
Oct	9	91.75	73.75	64.75	55.75	46.75	37.75	10.19
Nov	6	-70.30	-82.30	-88.30	-94.30	-100.30	-106.30	-11.72
Dec	7	-53.35	-67.35	-74.35	-81.35	-88.35	-95.35	-7.62
Jan	5	121.40	111.40	106.40	101.40	96.40	91.40	24.28
								
	41	144.40	62.40	21.40	-19.60	-60.60	-101.60	3.52
Third trade
Code: 
Trade 3								
Month	Trades	Gross pts	Cost=2 pts	Cost=3 pts	Cost=4 pts	Cost=5 pts	Cost=6 pts	Avg. Gross
Aug	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Sep	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Oct	2	-50.75	-54.75	-56.75	-58.75	-60.75	-62.75	-25.38
Nov	3	61.80	55.80	52.80	49.80	46.80	43.80	20.60
Dec	3	-55.60	-61.60	-64.60	-67.60	-70.60	-73.60	-18.53
Jan	2	52.95	48.95	46.95	44.95	42.95	40.95	26.48
								
	10	8.40	-11.60	-21.60	-31.60	-41.60	-51.60	0.84
Fourth trade
Code: 
Trade 4								
Month	Trades	Gross pts	Cost=2 pts	Cost=3 pts	Cost=4 pts	Cost=5 pts	Cost=6 pts	Avg. Gross
Aug	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Sep	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Oct	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Nov	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
Dec	1	-5.45	-7.45	-8.45	-9.45	-10.45	-11.45	-5.45
Jan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	#DIV/0!
								
	1	-5.45	-7.45	-8.45	-9.45	-10.45	-11.45	-5.45

The first trade on the average is +ve for all months except the current month.

The second and third trades are also +ve, but not consistently. This month the second trade is hugely +ve, because it caught the reversal on 2nd Jan. I'll ignore the fourth trade.

So, first trade is the key. What then is the purpose of this system? If I have to take only 1 trade/day, and that is on the average +ve, why not just keep trading plain vanilla ORB?

From my backtests (and my trials over the last 18 months), I keep finding that plain simple ORB is hard to beat as a mechanical day trading system. Maybe i am not backtesting the right systems - for example, i have never seriously tried a target based system.

Anyway, I am happy with the results of this system. This gives me a reason to hang around with M30 charts, whenever I am stopped out of ORB :rofl:. I can try tweaking and testing this for lower timeframes, but I am not expecting anything much from it.

Today's Bauni trades per this system:
Short below 11 AM bar, SAR to long above 2:30 bar, and still long... so a losa day, i think.

ORB is still short from 6330, current SL at 6339.
 
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