General Trading Chat
- Thread starter timepass
- Start date
- Tags idle thoughts trading talk only
I uploaded this data for one of my friends, so thought about sharing here as well. It has the % Change Data for current Nov Series Futures Contracts, in single day wise format, as well as the running total or cumulative format.
The excel files are available at this link - https://www.sendspace.com/file/x01rou
Thanks and regards
The excel files are available at this link - https://www.sendspace.com/file/x01rou
Thanks and regards
Trade management is most important part in trading.After we take a trade,then comes trade management part which includes trailing of stops at various points,adds,booking partial profits,and finally taking full profits on the complete position.It is the trade management which makes money for the traders .
In my view every trader has to understand the trading environment he is in at a particular period.If we are in sideways market or trending market our trading tools are different,similarly for trade management we have to understand ( either intuitively or by using ATR ) whether we are in range expansion or range contraction environment.Sometime market is in range contraction so it makes 35-40 points range in a day and sometimes it is in range expansion mode where it has a daily range of 80-85 points.Many traders here will remember a system which our friend Suri was running and for that he did a test to decide where he should take profits on fixed points basis.That time he even did not get many 20 points profit trades so he settled for 15 points because that time market was in contraction mode.If the same study is done today I am sure we will get enough trades for 20-25 or even 30 points profits because market environment has changed.
There are many studies which indicate that trailing profit taking gives better results than booking profits on fixed points basis.But booking part profits at fixed points puts some money in the pockets of a trader and holding rest of the position on trailing levels is lighter on his mind.In contraction markets he may be grabbing a profit in fixed 15 points and in range expansion he may decide to take partial profits at 30-35 or 40 points and trail the rest.
Profit taking can be done on the following :
1) Near earlier supports and resistances.
2) Near VWAP bands,TDST supports/ resistances,Near overbought and oversold areas in MFI.
3) Counting EW structure and the last wave in the pattern.
4) Wide Range Bars ( WRBs) ...here again booking profits on first WRB after a trend change breakout will leave too much on the table but after 2-3 WRBs and after a sustained move we could be booking profits at a much better location.
5) Steep up or down move after the market has run for some time is a good place to book profits.Market reverses atleast in short term here.
6) When market starts printing small range intertwining bars which have long tails meaning that the lows are aggressively bought is a good place to book profits if you are in a short trade...mirror image for a long trade.
7) 9 TDST set up bars completion and the next TDST not breaking is a good place to book profits.Markets have tendency to make short term tops/ bottoms on 9 set up bars.
8) Longer term ( such as hourly,daily) supports and resistances.
9) ATR to get an idea whether the market has done the day's move .
So booking profits is a fine art...with the above points you may be able to extract more points from a price move but sometimes you will book profits prematurely....this happens with everyone,we book profit and the market goes further in our direction. Re-entry could be a solution here.No real trader is able to catch all the tops and bottoms...we only should try to extract maximum.
Finally choose a solution which fits and matches with your mindset and that is the best for you.
Smart_trade
In my view every trader has to understand the trading environment he is in at a particular period.If we are in sideways market or trending market our trading tools are different,similarly for trade management we have to understand ( either intuitively or by using ATR ) whether we are in range expansion or range contraction environment.Sometime market is in range contraction so it makes 35-40 points range in a day and sometimes it is in range expansion mode where it has a daily range of 80-85 points.Many traders here will remember a system which our friend Suri was running and for that he did a test to decide where he should take profits on fixed points basis.That time he even did not get many 20 points profit trades so he settled for 15 points because that time market was in contraction mode.If the same study is done today I am sure we will get enough trades for 20-25 or even 30 points profits because market environment has changed.
There are many studies which indicate that trailing profit taking gives better results than booking profits on fixed points basis.But booking part profits at fixed points puts some money in the pockets of a trader and holding rest of the position on trailing levels is lighter on his mind.In contraction markets he may be grabbing a profit in fixed 15 points and in range expansion he may decide to take partial profits at 30-35 or 40 points and trail the rest.
Profit taking can be done on the following :
1) Near earlier supports and resistances.
2) Near VWAP bands,TDST supports/ resistances,Near overbought and oversold areas in MFI.
3) Counting EW structure and the last wave in the pattern.
4) Wide Range Bars ( WRBs) ...here again booking profits on first WRB after a trend change breakout will leave too much on the table but after 2-3 WRBs and after a sustained move we could be booking profits at a much better location.
5) Steep up or down move after the market has run for some time is a good place to book profits.Market reverses atleast in short term here.
6) When market starts printing small range intertwining bars which have long tails meaning that the lows are aggressively bought is a good place to book profits if you are in a short trade...mirror image for a long trade.
7) 9 TDST set up bars completion and the next TDST not breaking is a good place to book profits.Markets have tendency to make short term tops/ bottoms on 9 set up bars.
8) Longer term ( such as hourly,daily) supports and resistances.
9) ATR to get an idea whether the market has done the day's move .
So booking profits is a fine art...with the above points you may be able to extract more points from a price move but sometimes you will book profits prematurely....this happens with everyone,we book profit and the market goes further in our direction. Re-entry could be a solution here.No real trader is able to catch all the tops and bottoms...we only should try to extract maximum.
Finally choose a solution which fits and matches with your mindset and that is the best for you.
Smart_trade
I realised thinking of lost opportunities only adds stress. theres always some improvisation for next time. But no point in looking back. If we are going to continue this downtrend there will sure be another 8500 entry and this goes on. Theres always another sideways , uptrend or downtrend in case we missed it.
Subject: When to Exit.
With ST Sir's post, I've been able to cut down the size of this post drastically.
I will focus on a very effective method that works on a chart of any TF from 1m to Daily.
After overcoming the largest hurdles of when to enter, we find that there is a bigger mountain called exit that we have to conquer.
On US Election result day, I got a very strong up move from TD Point Rev that I pointed to ST Sir in real-time and got good points on it.
If we'd stuck without exiting or re-entering, that would have been an 800 point BNF scalp
S**t happens.Let me try to break it down with two points to consider:
1. As you enter a trade, once you've got a few point on it, shift your SL to TSL for trade breakeven points.
Even if the whipsaws take it out and continue your trend, you'll have a positive phyche to re-enter.
2. Obviously you know what to expect in sideways and trending days so I'll skip the volume/volatility bit.
3. What you might want to know.
Every movement of the market is cyclic, therefore, the following event will occur :
For every move, there will be a corrective opposite move.
Let the angle of move be the momentum ie. Slope of of line or rate of fall or rise in value.
Let the size of move be projection ie. The size of Impulsive side (trend)
and let the size of corrective move be depth ie. The size of corrective bars.
1. As long as Projection is greater than Depth, expect trend to continue.
Always observe that the first depth will be shallow and Projection will be larger.
As the trend moves, Projection will get smaller and Depth will get larger.
Inference: You will have to have bigger TSL along the trend if you want to catch larger moves.
Inference: You can also add to your position.
2. When Depth starts increasing, Projection will start decreasing.
Inference: Expect a reversal or very strong correction, probably, will take your TSL and may continue in trend or reverse.
Inference: Start booking partial profits, if you're experienced, you can reverse your position.
NEver happens all the time but just as a "dream move", your holding 2 lots shorts, you cover(buy) with 4 lots.
3. Momentum
If the falls and rises are very steep, expect very quick price changes.
At this time go for lesser lots, bcos if you catch the move, you'll make alot of quick bucks.
If you hit SL, with a smaller lot size, it will equal loss of normal SL.
This post is very specific to the nature of your problem, your TSL might be very tight and therfore getting knocked out as Depth(correction) increases.
Excuse the crude charting(resource limits).
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1) ATR is the average true range which the market does over a time period so a daily ATR will indicate average points which the market moves in a day. ATR of 70 and below is contraction and ATR above 70 is an expansion phase.
2 Suppose ATR is 85 and we find that the market from bottom has already travelled 70-75 points then we know that statistically the move for the day is done....or atleast we have finished the meaty part of the move and we should look for place for booking profits if few other things also converge to show the likely top of the move/day.
Smart_trade
2 Suppose ATR is 85 and we find that the market from bottom has already travelled 70-75 points then we know that statistically the move for the day is done....or atleast we have finished the meaty part of the move and we should look for place for booking profits if few other things also converge to show the likely top of the move/day.
Smart_trade
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