Nifty Entry ,Exit ,Target levels with Median Line Charts

17.10.2011_Monday 60 min chart update

18.10.2011_Tuesday



The rally lost steam and could not rise till 5180 levels as expected.However the slowing down of the price moves near the median line and the H & S pattern of median lines gave clues of a short term reversal.
Today's price reached the Blue lower median line parallel drawn with the recent minor swings of the rally at 5000 zone as expected. So the correction to the recent rally expected to continue for the next few days.The last three hour bars give an indication of the second wave of the correction which can oscillate around the 5050 levels to reach 5100.This point would be another spot where a short can be considered based on price bar patterns.The resistance at 5100 can lead the price down towards 4985 / 4950 which corresponds to 38.2% - 50 % R of the previous rally and would again be a good support level to enter Longs.
If 4950 fails, then 4900 would be the next support area, which is at the Lower median line of the Red Pitchfork drawn on the daily bar chart.

Alternate view is if price moves past 5100 with momentum, the downmove will get negated.

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Kavima, someone else had commented on how your methodology yields about the same result as something that is more diverse. I think that is just the nature of a sound methodology.

Even though I no longer have access to Nifty charts, I wanted to pass this chart on (EUR/USD). I'm just intrigued by how there is similarity between your usage of the pitchfork and mine of the trendlines. The TL that was drawn from the 1st swing low to the 2nd swing low has been broken and is now challenging the one that was drawn properly, from the dip to the 1st swing low. There is the new DOWN TL that will probably be broken in favor of a stronger move to complete a correction because of the TL break. After that move, then another move south will take this market to the corrective level for that TL break, then get a bounce, and then who-knows-what.

Any rate, in describing your pitchfork, you have done the same thing in many cases--"Move here, bounce here, reversal here, and then the big move here."

I did not want to interrupt the flow of your excellent thread. I just wanted to add a perspective of 2 methodologies.

hi 4xpipcounter

Was catching up on my reading in TJ and through timepass link to yr thread on Trendlines.I'm not sure how i missed it past few months( though had read the 1st post and thanked it ).And I was also fascinated by your detailed explanation of using trendlines and your methodology.It was a sense of Deja Vu Your approach and mine are very similar using Lines...I think we are cousins of the same Family:lol:

Thanks for yr interest and I update this thread as a mirror of my blogspot"NiftytradeswithPitchfork" to reach out to more friends and share my approach to analysing the market.It's in a way my daily notes!!And would love to hear comments or questions regarding this approach which I can discuss and share ...

You have many silent viewers to your thread. I'm sure it is new information to many. When they see the accuracy of what you do, then it becomes more of a tool for people to watch and enjoy your thread.
If I had to guess, many don't comment because they are just learning from you and do not know how to comment.

One thing is for sure. We are in the trading family. I'll be your cousin--lol.

19.10.2011_Wednesday

Down move negated ? ?? maybe so, but I see today's consolidation as an even point between the bulls & bears. But again, the expiry is so close.. 4 sessions only.

Kavima, the nice thing about not having any access to Nifty charts is that I do not have any biases attached to how I look at your charts, which does make for great learning, as I sit here in your Pitchfork 101 classroom.

It seems to me within the purple, it has made a very strong move, and also taking out the middle line without much effort. The purple also seems to be a microcosm within the context of the move between the green and the red pitchfork.

At that point, I'm trying to draw a conclusion, so I am asking your input on it.
The move within the purple should be completed to the the top, which could also initiate a strong momentous move on the other side of the green middle line. Considering the purple is just the smaller picture of the larger landscape, the move could continue closer to the red, where at that point, the market becomes extreme OB, and then get a strong reversal.

As a novice in the usage of the pitchfork, I'm soliciting your view on my slant on this scenario.

@timepass ,@4xpipcounter

Expected 5100-5125 to be the resistance at the Upper median line (tuesday 18.10 chart).Today's bars if you noticed was hesitant and indecisive near that zone and broke out above with a decent green bar and closed near the high of today's range.The recent rise is almost 85% of the previous swing.The previous low at 5000 was contained within 38.2% of the rally swing from 4720 - 5150.So right now I'll go with the view that the rally is continuing though 5170 is a strong resistance zone due to the previous two major swing highs at this level. If price gets resisted at this zone it would translate to a double top , and a down move till 5000 support can ensue.
I have drawn the magenta PF today after the strong move and as 4xpipcounter mentioned Price has passed easily through the Median line.( price walked slowly :lol:at the Magenta Median line and jumped up the last two hrs.)If price breezes thro 5170 then 5215 zone at the magenta UML would be the target.( If we connect the previous swing tops it extends into the magenta UML)
But yes, it is tough to take a call with both probabilities looking possible.As such there is no pattern to trade now except wait and watch tommorrow's action.

@Kavima and @4xPipCounter thank you for your valuable comments that shed more light on this. I remain a learner and love to come by and get your view and feedback from the day. Thanks for sharing your view on this thread!