Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#51
POSITION AS AT END OF 26-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
Sell Call on close of 23-Dec @ FUT 2973 / SPOT 2969 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2969 since 23-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2962 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2917 since 24-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 3017 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
SHORT position since 23-Dec close of SPOT 2969 being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to long / buy if SPOT closes above 2962 on Monday 29-Dec
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#52
Personal View:

Break & sub-close of SPOT 2923 confirmed the signal of short term downtrend.
The break of 2923 warrants a test of 2850 support level, before the pivotal low of 2815 as in daily charts. Thus, this 2820-50 is an important upcoming support band. I will look to book 1/2 or 1/4 of short position in this band.

Surprisingly, the 50DSMA is EXACTLY at the CLOSE value of SPOT ie 2917, while 20DSMA is at SPOT 2863.

This downtrend move from 3110, in apparently Lower-High Lower-Low pattern, has its Stop-And-Reverse (SAR) level at SPOT 3002, which is the previous Lower-High, near 2 Day Swing high & also a key Pivot high as per 60min chart.
Short term bears kept their promise of a date with Spot 2850 level. :)
And, personally, respecting this support band & hourly oversold status, I booked 1/4th of positional shorts at Spot 2850, as mentioned earlier.

The invisible supports of 20DSMA & 50DSMA broke and Spot closed below these levels on Friday.

On downside, we still have the Pivotal Low as per Daily charts & previous strong-resistance-now-likely-support at around Spot 2820.
The reaction at this zone will signify the real picture behind the downmove from 3100+ levels to 2850 - whether as a corrective downmove or as a resumption of bearishness in the overall long term bear market, with an intention to retest October lows.

I expect an initial bounce from this 2820-2800 zone which may cross 2900. But we now have crucial resistance levels at 2960 & 3000.

 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#53
sunil,

one suggestion. can you modify th excel to include 2D, 3D so that we can see all signals in one excel and its easy to take a call. otherwise, we need to maintain anothe excel or 'remember' the positions which is dangerous. since data entry is done here, it should be easy to include 2D, 3D in same excel
I have made the same in spot sheet.
Sunil,
you may like to see and correct if required.
Thanks Bandlab2 & LVGandhi for your suggestions & inputs.

I had initially thought of incorporating 2Day Swing & 3Day Swing Signals in the same excel file, but the problem was of data entered - the SPOT levels, which we enter in the Spot worksheet in excel file, are as per exchange-provided.
But for Day swing calls, I rely on actual chartical Highs and Lows, which may sometimes be different than the exchange provided ones. (A common known fact, that due to NSE policy, sometimes the opening high OR low - which ultimately remain the whole day's high or low, as case may be - are at times chartically invisible & due to freak calculations).
Hence, the excel file result will be different than the actual chartical levels.

Here, I'll be referring ONLY to SPOT values, to avoid break in flow on expiry/settlement days...
Also, I'll note only chartical highs & lows of SPOT and not the (sometimes) chartically invisible highs & lows made at open
There are two possible solutions to this:
1. We have another Spot's worksheet in the excel file with only Date, High, Low & Close Columns - here we enter the actual, chartical Sot's HOD & LOD.

2. No new worksheet; instead in the existing SPOT's worksheet, we enter the actual, chartical levels & not the exchange-provided one.


My argument against the second solution is that I need those exchange-provided highs & lows in pivot calculations & giving a different weightage to SPOT levels. Else, there won't be any difference between FUT & SPOT worksheet results.

Overall, I am adding a new worksheet - but it won't be a double entry pain. All the values reqd. for Day swing signals - Date, High, Low & Close - will be automatically filled in from 1st worksheet of Spot.
Then, just verify whether the High & Low values are actual & as per INTRADAY chart. (A simple ya h00 website will also do - i have given an illustration in the very first page of this thread Post # 7)
It's not every day's case that the values will be different - ONLY SOMETIMES, ONE OF THE VALUES (EITHER HOD OR LOD) WILL HAVE TO BE MANUALLY TYPED IN THE NEW WORKSHEET - if there's no change in chartical levels, then let the values stay as it is. The next columns will have the 2day & 3day Swing signals with SAR (Stop-And-Reverse) levels.

I am modifying the chart accordingly, and I have also decided to UPDATE THE EXCEL FILE EVERY SUNDAY WITH THE REQD LEVELS FOR THE BENEFIT OF NEW VISITORS OF THE THREAD.

 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#55
POSITION AS AT END OF 29-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
Sell Call given on close of 23-Dec @ FUT 2973 / SPOT 2969 has been signalled to NEUTRAL at today's close.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2969 since 23-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2961 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2917 since 24-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 2962 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
SHORT position since 23-Dec close of SPOT 2969 being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to long / buy if SPOT closes above 2961 on Tuesday 30-Dec
Also, have to keep an eye on intraday break of SPOT 3002.
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#56
Short term bears kept their promise of a date with Spot 2850 level. :)
And, personally, respecting this support band & hourly oversold status, I booked 1/4th of positional shorts at Spot 2850, as mentioned earlier.

The invisible supports of 20DSMA & 50DSMA broke and Spot closed below these levels on Friday.

On downside, we still have the Pivotal Low as per Daily charts & previous strong-resistance-now-likely-support at around Spot 2820.
The reaction at this zone will signify the real picture behind the downmove from 3100+ levels to 2850 - whether as a corrective downmove or as a resumption of bearishness in the overall long term bear market, with an intention to retest October lows.

I expect an initial bounce from this 2820-2800 zone which may cross 2900. But we now have crucial resistance levels at 2960 & 3000.


As mentioned about the importance of 2820-200 zone, I personally covered 1/4th more of short position at Spot 2820, respecting the RSR level.
Still carrying balance 1/2 short position....

Now, higher timeframes' RSIs are in neutral zone. Tomorrow's price movement will confirm a change in short term trend, or mere pullback from oversold conditions.
As aforementioned, will keep an eye on 2 key levels: SPOT 2962 & 3002
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#59
POSITION AS AT END OF 30-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
The Neutral Signal generated yesterday, on 29-Dec, changes to "Buy" signal today, as at close of Fut 2987 / Spot 2980

2. 2 Day Swing
Today, it closed above the SAR level ie Spot 2961. Hence,
Old Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2969 since 23-Dec
reversed to
New Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2813 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Today, it closed above the SAR level ie Spot 2962. Hence,
Old Position: SHORT @ SPOT 2917 since 24-Dec
reversed to
New Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2813 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
SHORT position since 23-Dec close of SPOT 2969
has been reversed to
LONG @ today's closing of SPOT 2980.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 2813 on Wednesday 31-Dec
 

Sunil

Well-Known Member
#60
POSITION AS AT END OF 31-DEC-08

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2900 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2813 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 2900 on Thursday 1-Jan.
 

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