Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On - Chapter II

Hi Mangafreakz,

You don't have to replace 20 with your number. The staement P = Param("Averaging Period", 20, 3, 100) itself has built in values to change. The meaning of the statement is as follows:

P is a parameter, having name "Averaging Period", with a default value of 20, the minimum that can be assigned is 3 and maximum of 100. So, you can change the value of P in the range 3 to 100. For doing this change in the chart you have to right-click on the chart and click on Parameters. You will get a sub-menu with different variables that can be changed and a scale against each for changing their values. Click on the scale against "Averaging Period" and drag the pointer to change the value as per your choice. If you want to go back to default values, click on Reset button at the bottom and all variables will be set to their default values.

If you want to change the value for exploration, click on Parameters in the Exploration window and follow the same procedure.

If you want to have a range other than 3 to 100 then you have to replace the 3 and 100 in the code with your values. To change the default value replace 20 with whatever number you want but it should be within the range specified by the next to numbers.

I assumed that the range of 3 to 100 for averaging period would be sufficient. If there is a need to test other numbers outside this range you can make the changes to the P = Param(....) line in the AFL

Regards

-Anant

Hello friends,

If you have used and experimented with the AFL I posted earlier, you might have observed that it is not a perfect tool. You still get whipsaws, some false signals etc. I will post a few such things that you observe and also suggest some way to take care of these. Experts may give their valuable opinion in this regard.

Today I will explain one such phenomenon which you observe in stocks which have a good run for quite some time (for a couple of months the stock simply goes up hitting one target after the other). After a good run every stocks stops for a while and consolidates and resumes its up move. Savant has several times written about this with an anlogy of climbing several floors. During such consolidation, there will be a little down movement also. Just like you can not inhale continuously without exhaling in between, the stock also shows a downtrend for a short period. During such down trend the AFL may show a Sell trigger and then within 3 or 4 days a Buy trigger appears. This makes us get out of our position and re-enter unnecessarily costing us extra overheads. I have attached four such examples below, INFOSYSTCH, IRB, MARUTI and TORRNTPOWER all of which have a continuous run upwards since march but in between a few sell signals have appeared and quickly changed to give Buy triggers. I have marked these areas with circles on the charts.

When such things happen it is better to wait instead of rushing to sell the stock. When a stock gives Sell trigger after a long up move, just wait for 2 or 3 days to see if the trigger reverses. One sign of such reversal is that the stock after giving Sell trigger again shows a higher close or higher low next day. If this happens wait and decide after confirming the signal. If the stock continuously goes down (Making lower Low and Closing lower each day) for three consecutive days after the Sell Trigger then you can conclude that there is enough evidence that it will take some time for the stock to go up again and you can exit. This may give you slightly lower returns but protects against unnecessary exits. This is not a fool-proof method but works most of the time.

You can see many more such cases if you scan through the charts of different stocks in your database. The four charts below are just for example.



Tomorrow I will take another case and explain.

Regards

-Anant

Hi Talisman,

Thanks A Ton..!!!

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Hi,

Several stocks have achieved targets with profits in double digits. Attached below are stocks list with new targets and SL.
Two stocks, Dish TV and Mundra Port have hit SL so they will be removed from the list.

Hi Savant,

I have included BB(9, 2) in the AFL as suggested by you. The chart produced by this AFL is reproduced below. Is this what you are looking for? Please suggest any more additions so that I can include them.



Regards

-Anant

Dear friends,

Summary of updates for today (14-09-200) is as follows:

Buy Triggers (To be traded on 15-09-2009):
The following have triggered SELL today:

ACC, AMBUJACEM, DISHTV, DLF, GMRINFRA,
GSPL, GTLINFRA, HINDUNILVR, INDIACEM,
JPHYDRO, MLL, ONGC, RECLTD, ROLTA,
TATATEA, TECHM, TTML and VOLTAS

The following have achieved their targets today:

BANKINDIA, CANBK and ORIENTBANK

The following have Hit StopLoss today:

MOSERBAER and NOIDATOLL
-------------------------------------------------

TRADE THESE SIGNALS AT YOUR OWN RISK

Regards

-Anant

Hi,

Due to some urgent work I had to hurriedly close the earlier post above.

Coming to a more general explanation. As you all know I had this sytem back-tested till June end and started testing it by live mock trades from 01 July 2009 (In fact I have done some real trades also and benefited). In a back test there is always a chance of getting biased, knowingly or unknowingly, as the rest of the chart on right hand side is known. In a live test this part is not known and we have to take decision for tomorrow based on the information available till today. This makes the testing more effective. That is why I did not post the AFL based on back testing alone. While live testing was going on, you may remember, I used to post the triggers with a note NOT TO TRADE the triggers. After two months of live test I was confident and gave the AFL. From September, I am giving the triggers but with a warning TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK and also with some remarks like 'Wait for confirmation'. This is because the system still needs improvements. All people who were just watching the triggers posted earlier can now use the AFL and take part in testing on a large scale and give their inputs for improvement.

Prasad has now given one such input and we can all work on it. I am trying to understand the BB piercing thoroughly so that i can write down the rules and incorporate in the AFL. Any suggestion on incorporating these rules are welcome. Also, please suggest any other improvements that can be added.

These additions also will be made only after live testing.

Meanwhile, I request Prasad to contribute by telling us which Buy triggers posted here have shown Sell condition based on BB technique. Instead of telling that a particular Sell trigger was already there few days back, please post as soon as you recognise them. We can use this information to verify the actual trigger given by the MA technique. That will greatly help in incorporating BB validation into the present AFL.

Regards

-Anant

Hi Friends,

Completely updated EXCEL file (EOD of 14-09-2009) can be downloaded from here.

Regards

-Anant

Hi Friends,

NEW TRIGGERS of Today (for trading on 16-09-09) are given below:

BUY Triggers:

BHARATFORGE, CMP=231.70, Target=266.00, SL=202.00

NDTV, CMP=169.60, Target=190.05, SL=151.25

SELL Triggers:

SERLINBIO, CMP=111.85

3IINFOTECH, CMP=84.05, Requires confirmation

Out of thr previous Triggers, IBREALEST and MLL have negated the SELL triggers today and should not be sold at present
HIDUNILVR SELL signal is yet to be confirmed, hold till confirmation

TRADE THESE TRIGGERS AT YOUR OWN RISK


Regards

-Anant

Hi Talisman,

Thanks A Ton..!!!

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde