Why Indian Stock Markets Are falling Blindly Everyday When WIll It Stop ?

[trader.trends]

Markets are falling as there is more selling than buying and people are pulling out their money.

Biggest investors - FII and DII are playing a game of cat and mouse.

Date FII Activity DII Activity Net
29-Jan-2010 -996.09 1,011.02 15
28-Jan-2010 -2,813.06 1,979.58 -900
27-Jan-2010 -2,212.29 1,475.41 -800
25-Jan-2010 -1,002.60 716.22 -300
22-Jan-2010 -2,415.49 1,953.97 -500

As you can see, money is leaving the markets, there are more sellers and hence more supply and hence the fall.

Now, FII's are selling as there is concern around emerging markets.

There can never be more selling than buying. Buying and selling is always equal in the market. Market falls when sellers are willing to sell at lower and lower rates and market moves up when buyers are willing to buy at higher and higher prices. There have been many instances when the market has moved up when FII were selling and moved down when FII were buying. Basing trading decisions solely on FII activity would be disastrous. It is also facile to think that FIIs make money all the time at the cost of small investors.

 

[bunny]

Thanks dear lokesh for sharing important information with us its very helpful

There can never be more selling than buying. Buying and selling is always equal in the market. Market falls when sellers are willing to sell at lower and lower rates and market moves up when buyers are willing to buy at higher and higher prices. There have been many instances when the market has moved up when FII were selling and moved down when FII were buying. Basing trading decisions solely on FII activity would be disastrous. It is also facile to think that FIIs make money all the time at the cost of small investors.

Let keep aside the issue of FII buying/selling. In the first place, do you really think that the stock exchanges are going to disclose any real sensitive data on their website? Image you are some hot shot FII/DII who is currently distributing his stock to the retail investors. If NSE tells everybody "Hey dude, this hot shot guy is selling his portfolio", would it be acceptable to you?

Large traders do not want to let anybody know what and how much they are buying or selling.

Also, if the FII/DII buying/selling data really contained any information, FII/DII would have easily influenced the stock exchange to not disclose the data; and the exchange would have obliged. And why not oblige? After institutional volume contributes almost 90 to 95% of the exchange's business/turnover. There is no way NSE can "force" any data out against the will of institutional players. If the institutional players really do not mind disclosing the data, we have to understand that the data has no value. Otherwise, anybody with a simple calculator could pick tops and bottoms based on these values.

 

[Ganesh543]

Let keep aside the issue of FII buying/selling. In the first place, do you really think that the stock exchanges are going to disclose any real sensitive data on their website? Image you are some hot shot FII/DII who is currently distributing his stock to the retail investors. If NSE tells everybody "Hey dude, this hot shot guy is selling his portfolio", would it be acceptable to you?

Large traders do not want to let anybody know what and how much they are buying or selling.

Also, if the FII/DII buying/selling data really contained any information, FII/DII would have easily influenced the stock exchange to not disclose the data; and the exchange would have obliged. And why not oblige? After institutional volume contributes almost 90 to 95% of the exchange's business/turnover. There is no way NSE can "force" any data out against the will of institutional players. If the institutional players really do not mind disclosing the data, we have to understand that the data has no value. Otherwise, anybody with a simple calculator could pick tops and bottoms based on these values.

Yes Dear Bunny I appreciate your depth of thinking yes I agree with you most of data we get by exchanges is not the true data else traders get a clue which way markets and specific stocks r going to move beforehand .With 95 percent of volume being generated by FII and DIIs definetly exchanges would do their best to oblige them without revealing truth (right data) to traders and others .


Hare Krishna

Ganesh

 

[rajputz]

did any chart shown this 125 point move in 7minutes
Dont b over react FII are just booking profit and switching bad shares to good
if they had taken out money which they sell $ must had been at 52 but its still hovering around 46
Nothing bad in fundamental bro have faith in ur country its companies and ur trade :thumb:
Pick good company even if mkt fell trader lose investors never:thumb:
Hope maine jarurat se jyada explain nahi kiya god bless us all
I never see mkt on chart still earning many people who know no TA but still earning they one see trading range and enter at lower exit at upside
Unitech Suzlon WWIL Noidatoll no share have broken its trading range ya near to lower side we can say that and 100 of share too doing good Index is just to create panic as most believe it is of govt but its private and 30% of it is with singapur and Dubai exchange if I am right

technicals and charts show us the over all trend of the market. if market fell 125 points in 7 minutes then also recovered the same 120 points in the next 10 minutes. that where the technical come in handy to prevent the traders from these panic selling. If your technical are telling you that the position is going to be bullish from here, and u believe in ur TA, and not let your emotion run you, no matter what you will hold your position. Just for the information that Longest bull or bear candles means the end of the rally.

i forgot to mention. If also the technical indicators lack some where, then there is a discipline that everyone follows. Risk and money management, as price moves the indicators. if a person is discipline he will incurr little loss out of whipsaws. but when he will take profit, that will cover all losses and a nice hand of profit.

its all about technicals and discipline and following it Completely.

 

[now]

lol dear friend it really requires heart to sell at 4800-4875 levels as markets can jump by 100 points anytime so I m afraid of loosing money even I use stoplosses

4 days back I was buying at 5280 nifty level for target of 5350 5400 and now its trembling to sell at 4850 levels how u manage

friend if you are technical trader than you should not worry about the levels at which you are buying or selling , technical trader has nothing to do with level , he is a pure opportunist , he buys in overbrought market if his systems says so and he will sell a oversold market if his system says so

in market always unexpected happens , market could tank to 4300 in next week , or could go to 5200 level next week ( less likely but quite possile)

if your sytem is saying to sell at 4800 than sell at 4800 with SL , even if you were buying at 5200

i am a newbie myself and knows very little about technical analysis ,
all i know the only thing that you can save you in this market is trading through technicals

 

[prasadam]

Sorry to disagree with you Bunny.

It is not so easy to influence various intermediaries and regulators.

FIIs/DIIs have to provide their code while punching the order( reflected at NSE/BSE) the depository ( nsdl/csdl) has to deliver/receive the stocks, the FIIs have to report their transactions to RBI, the company whose shares were bought/sold in large quantities has to report it to NSE/BSE.

Do you expect every one in this chain will be managed just to hide the information??? What will be the costs involved??

BTW, what is so sensitive in this information???

Think again.

cheers.

Let keep aside the issue of FII buying/selling. In the first place, do you really think that the stock exchanges are going to disclose any real sensitive data on their website? Image you are some hot shot FII/DII who is currently distributing his stock to the retail investors. If NSE tells everybody "Hey dude, this hot shot guy is selling his portfolio", would it be acceptable to you?

Large traders do not want to let anybody know what and how much they are buying or selling.

Also, if the FII/DII buying/selling data really contained any information, FII/DII would have easily influenced the stock exchange to not disclose the data; and the exchange would have obliged. And why not oblige? After institutional volume contributes almost 90 to 95% of the exchange's business/turnover. There is no way NSE can "force" any data out against the will of institutional players. If the institutional players really do not mind disclosing the data, we have to understand that the data has no value. Otherwise, anybody with a simple calculator could pick tops and bottoms based on these values.

 

[findvikas]

Hello everyone... missed the forum, I won't be quite as active like before as changes at workplace and personal life keeping me busy but would try and read you all silently and probably respond to some posts.

Ok about the initial question, it was the much awaited retracement after the WolfeWave completed its target back in October 2009... the high of October was just few points before the target line which made nifty another attempt to break the target line and that came as a gap up opening above 5300

See how market trend in waves... one after another.. they are always there
http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/nifty-going-back-to-4000_23.html

Even for the current fall there is a wave..
http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trading-idea-nifty-put-options-1200.html

which has a target very near... another 4-5% fall to take us near 4600 levels... but we may not exactly stop there because US markets has a very severe target of 9200 or below level in DJI & 900 or below in SPX.. which will led to a global sell off.

I had booked all my longs in October and since then I was rolling onto my puts and was happy even if my puts were expiring worthless as I knew how severe correction can comes after a WW complete its target.... I had a over 1300% return for the month of January and thanks to god my FX trades are doing great as well.

(I could be found on my blog, talking mostly about FX)

 

[lokesh1212]

There can never be more selling than buying. Buying and selling is always equal in the market.

You are right, I should have clarified...that # of stocks sold and brought is same.

But by saying more buying, i meant there is more demand & hence price rises. when i said more selling, there is less demand, more supply and hence price falls.

 

[praveen taneja]

Fully agree...no chart can show whats going to happen in future. They only show a trend and we assume that trend is going to continue.

I totally agree with that. When I started trading around 2001, I knew nothing about fundamentals or technicals. Used to trade on Satyam daily for 2 rupees move and my average monthly gains used to be around 3000-7000 per month. I used to take help from my broker in Dariya Ganj, who suggested me when to buy and when to exit. Lateron, in order to refine my trading when I learned technicals; I went to his office to boast of my knowledge about the market and the importance of technicals. He simply replied, "Sir, mujhe ye kuchh nahi aata par mera kaam chal jaata hai". I still remember that on the very first day, I made a huge loss of 5000/-; and I was so embarrassed with this failure that I quit doing trade with him. At that time, I was cursing myself of not being able to understand the technicals appropriately, despite spending a lot of money to learn. But now, it seems that it was not actually my fault. The technicals are too much to understand clearly.

technicals and charts show us the over all trend of the market. if market fell 125 points in 7 minutes then also recovered the same 120 points in the next 10 minutes. that where the technical come in handy to prevent the traders from these panic selling. If your technical are telling you that the position is going to be bullish from here, and u believe in ur TA, and not let your emotion run you, no matter what you will hold your position. Just for the information that Longest bull or bear candles means the end of the rally.

i forgot to mention. If also the technical indicators lack some where, then there is a discipline that everyone follows. Risk and money management, as price moves the indicators. if a person is discipline he will incurr little loss out of whipsaws. but when he will take profit, that will cover all losses and a nice hand of profit.

its all about technicals and discipline and following it Completely.

Sorry for wasting time of u all but all technicals and charts are like sword in the hand of a blind man:lol:
Whenever people use chart and TA earn they boast ya here I hit nail in the head and when in loss they have reasons that mkt is running with elliot wave or VIX or cam level and I use AFL of mallika sherawat:rofl:
All TA is doing experiment on a dead mans body sorry to say
If u are not well informed and dont kow how to use that information at right time simply stay away from trading for 3 mnths
watch 10 stocks take a look on range where they stop and where they reverse note on a paper and then make a kill no need of any chart or group or tip :thumb:
God send us here to find a way how we can meet our goal real goal god himself for that niether we need chart nor amibroker
Just pray and think of him then see profit would run towards you as rivers run towards sea
Now or mkt down n coming back can u gues how many after watching that long candle entered on long i think no one
after making all short mkt bounce and most of analyst had chose of a level where to book loss or avging there losing trade:rofl:
God bless us all Kuchh jyada ho gaya

 

[uniquejackpots]

Sir, Its a purely technical fall. As i have mentioned in my blog that 4700/4775 band will be the maximum downside level on positional basis where as this fresh upmove will take the market to the level of 5500 level from where a further downfall may see a level of 4500/4550 and from their a completely new rise will take us to the new high.