Where Will Nifty Be in 1 month after the budget 2020 ?

Where will Nifty (Index) be 1 month after the budget 2020 announcement ?


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#21
I don't think there will be a revision in the tax rates. But the slabs will almost surely get revised. That won't really have any impact on the indices.

But I expect some populist measures in this budget, considering the state elections in 2020. Some boost, Mudra-like, for the entrepreneurs / startups. Maybe more incentives for employing more people in SME. Employment generation may be the theme this time.

Remember the budget will be followed by RBI policy in a few days.
 

ncube

Well-Known Member
#22
I don't think there will be a revision in the tax rates. But the slabs will almost surely get revised. That won't really have any impact on the indices.

But I expect some populist measures in this budget, considering the state elections in 2020. Some boost, Mudra-like, for the entrepreneurs / startups. Maybe more incentives for employing more people in SME. Employment generation may be the theme this time.

Remember the budget will be followed by RBI policy in a few days.
RBI governor has already hinted that further reforms in policies would not make much impact..and government should make the required structural reforms..to bring about the change...hence government is already in pressure.

This is how I am planning my positions...Nifty is currently at 12200..and we have 5 more days for the budget session. Smart players with more visibility would have already started positioning themselves what we can call as factoring the budget...so higher chances that market will continue towards 13000 till budget day and on budget day there will be lot of volatility with profit booking and stock rotations as we get more clarity...and if budget is very optimistic then as ST sir said it will zoom..to 14000..else there will be some pullback and slow accumulation will happen..in subsequent days and by year end would see 14000...however i am betting more on broader market to beat the index with a huge margin..:)

This is just my thinking...and not a recommendation or contradicting anyone's opinion...:)
 

travi

Well-Known Member
#24
I don't think there will be a revision in the tax rates. But the slabs will almost surely get revised. That won't really have any impact on the indices.

But I expect some populist measures in this budget, considering the state elections in 2020. Some boost, Mudra-like, for the entrepreneurs / startups. Maybe more incentives for employing more people in SME. Employment generation may be the theme this time.

Remember the budget will be followed by RBI policy in a few days.
Logically, I agree with you and that is what I've said.
But given the anti-CAA NRC noise that has been raked up, budget could be more populist to restore sentiments.
Since that saga, many bjp leaning friends tend to criticize them heavily so based on chit-chat today, imo something overly +ve seems to be on the cards.
 
#25
Logically, I agree with you and that is what I've said.
But given the anti-CAA NRC noise that has been raked up, budget could be more populist to restore sentiments.
Since that saga, many bjp leaning friends tend to criticize them heavily so based on chit-chat today, imo something overly +ve seems to be on the cards.
In that case there maybe rural orientation. But Delhi elections are on Feb 8, I suppose the propaganda stops on the 5th evening. Maybe the urban oriented announcements will come in for clarification after that.

I do expect a slew of clarifications/ adjustments/ fine print/ifs and buts before the session ends.
 

vikas2131

Well-Known Member
#26
Budget 2020: Govt may increase import duties on more than 50 items


India plans to increase import duties on more than 50 items including
electronics, electrical goods, chemicals and handicrafts, targeting about $56 billion worth of imports from China and elsewhere
, officials and industry sources said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman could make the announcement when she presents her annual budget for 2020/21 on Feb. 1, along with other stimulus measures to revive sagging economic growth, one of the government officials said.
Higher customs duties are likely to hit goods such as mobile phone chargers, industrial chemicals, lamps, wooden furniture, candles, jewellery and handicraft items, two government sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The move could hit smartphone manufacturers that still import chargers or other components such as vibrator motors and ringers, along with retailers such as giant IKEA that is in the process of expanding its footprint in India.
IKEA had previously flagged higher Indian customs duties as a challenge.
The government had identified items and decided to increase import tariffs by 5%-10% as recommended by a panel of trade and finance ministry officials, among others, the second government official said.
"Our aim is to curb imports of non-essential items," said the official, adding a hike in import duties would provide a level playing field for local manufacturers-hit by cheap imports from China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and other countries that enjoy trade pacts with India.
The sources asked not be identified as the discussions were private.
A spokesman for the finance ministry and a spokeswoman for the commerce ministry declined to comment.
Since taking charge in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has imposed several restrictions on imports while allowing more foreign investment in manufacturing, defence and other sectors.



https://www.livemint.com/budget/new...ies-on-more-than-50-items-11579880739628.html
 

vikas2131

Well-Known Member
#27
RBI governor has already hinted that further reforms in policies would not make much impact..and government should make the required structural reforms..to bring about the change...hence government is already in pressure.

This is how I am planning my positions...Nifty is currently at 12200..and we have 5 more days for the budget session. Smart players with more visibility would have already started positioning themselves what we can call as factoring the budget...so higher chances that market will continue towards 13000 till budget day and on budget day there will be lot of volatility with profit booking and stock rotations as we get more clarity...and if budget is very optimistic then as ST sir said it will zoom..to 14000..else there will be some pullback and slow accumulation will happen..in subsequent days and by year end would see 14000...however i am betting more on broader market to beat the index with a huge margin..:)

This is just my thinking...and not a recommendation or contradicting anyone's opinion...:)
Market is unlikely to cross even 12400 until budget and while i think budget would be decent , it is not going to match sky high expectations of everyone. There is serious deficit of revenue in kitty of govt so not much hope income tax cut.

If govt raised import tax on more than 50 billion dollar worth of products then expect cheer of income tax cut (if that happens) not to last long which , in my option , is far likely than income tax cut.
 

AJK

Active Member
#28
Market is unlikely to cross even 12400 until budget and while i think budget would be decent , it is not going to match sky high expectations of everyone. There is serious deficit of revenue in kitty of govt so not much hope income tax cut.

If govt raised import tax on more than 50 billion dollar worth of products then expect cheer of income tax cut (if that happens) not to last long which , in my option , is far likely than income tax cut.
On the contrary i think imposing tax on selected Chinese items is good for Indian products, more job creation etc. Also buying all the unnecessary Chinese products would only help their economy, not ours. India has a stable govt and much improved bilateral relations with global community after a long time. So i think it's a good bet. Ps: I'm not politically favored, just one of the Indians who are hopeful for their people's future, like any other countries' people do.
 
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#29
Market is unlikely to cross even 12400 until budget and while i think budget would be decent , it is not going to match sky high expectations of everyone. There is serious deficit of revenue in kitty of govt so not much hope income tax cut.

If govt raised import tax on more than 50 billion dollar worth of products then expect cheer of income tax cut (if that happens) not to last long which , in my option , is far likely than income tax cut.
Might trigger another trade war :D
 

AJK

Active Member
#30
Stocks are like boats in the sea, and right and safe decision is the captain of the boat. Market stability is unpredictable, but right course of direction would always help a traveler.
 

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