What is the realistic Bottom of this market

What is the maximum Bottom level of this BSE ?

  • 4500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 5500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 6500

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • 7500

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • 8500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 9500

    Votes: 6 28.6%

  • Total voters
    21
  • Poll closed .
#52
You said

(1) "You can use variables in conjunction with charts to arrive at likelihoods,
But this static, one-dimensional, unifying theory approach is the stuff of
Novices then this will be very easy for you, do it? my dear stock market is the name to estimate the arrive at
likelihoods, see any business channel you will find that one reporter is asking from an experts sir what will be the next
range of nifty then as per his analysis (about variables in conjunction with charts to arrive at likelihoods) he gives the
answer

(2) Money flows determine where the market bottoms and where it tanks
But what ever format is attached which is full of money's in flow & out
Flow data with respect to its velocity & consist every change by all the dimension with respect to past & present

(3) What are the fundamentals of this market? A-: apx. 8 % are gainer & 92 % (apx) are the losers
What ever the fundamentals you will be Appling end Result will be this or do survey because huge brokerages , govt.
charges, fraud & big investors complete control over the market wont give any permission to flow 100 out of apx 95%
fund inside the market & only apx 65% to apx70% fund used to flow and you all know the rate of industrial
development then discrimination will be every where In some place it is like a boon & in some place it is like a hottest
curse due To this we cant count and data with accuracy & we have to trust on Assumption and discrimination will be
every where and it creates fear. Fear is the base of all the problems due to less inflow of money out of actual flow a
corruption base economy is coming which is forcing every sectors to behave as per his substance just do an observation
survey on 50 people of your knowing people and try get the winning ratio .suppose market is running in same pattern or gonna closed it doesnt mean that economy wont be running it
is never ever stop because money has to flow from right side or left it has to flow , man is getting extra feed from
agricultural, minerals, inventions, etc. are handling so many kinds hurdles by their greatness. so you mean to say about
that genuine economy where money will be flowing 99% out of 100 % only for long terms (1 to 10 years) Where &
every data is figured out and this will start to finished the Corruptions & every sector will be feeding properly when they
will be together Then they will be creating highest level of productivity & discrimination will be
Finished and that will be the end of fear and one after another day we can Find well, better & best happening and
market will never fall back

(4) you said "If you've got all the answers in this great fool-proof way as you seem to think you have, you wouldn't be on
an internet forum - you'd be on a beach in spain, sipping on a few mojitos with beautiful blondes either side of you. Life
aint so easy, and markets punish us all" if i l will be having alot but i cant do any thing rubish as you mentions these
were not provide any feel to be human epically for me for gaining allot inside this market huge amount fund & sense of
investment is required
thats the only funda.I mean to say about those IIM'S , OXFORDS MBA working with brokering houses are having some
ideas about this market. according to you they are breathing ever breath with world hottest blondes or they are just an
mba by names


(5) Provide me any fundamental of yours by chart or any dimension or any Format then I can feel that you have more then
a novice trader

my format was fully based on mathematical science & result of this was 100% accurate data then an estimated science will be applicable because we dont have any other way to do so like different countries government will do during crisis time they push hard to move out all the money from the market for this they can collapse any loose entity & create atmosphere to its investors that they have to remove all The money lastly they used to test a certain point 2 to 3 times that moments all big player came out

is bottom at "00000 level " or is it an estimated, tasted fixation by big players to analyze immovable final lowest fund positions as per their patience limit?

Just look at the title of this thread and you will get an answer of this in above mentions questions
Your explanation was clear on its place and position & provide very valuable informations about the most likely hoods arrivals :yahoo:
 
#53
If you think no one can tell what should be the value of SENSEX think twice.

Market is driven by 2 things - fundamentals and investor risk aversion. Sometimes, fundamentals dominate the latter(like in financial crisis) other times, latter dominates.(dot com)

But one can always calculate the intrinsic value of SENSEX estimating the FCFE of underlying stocks. I did this last week and published it on other thread, but thought people in this thread may want to look at it. Well, the estimated free floating market cap of SENSEX is 9.7 trillion and the current free floating market cap is 12.7 trillion. I am using free floating because thats what is used to calculate sensex. For complete methodology and detailed report you may want to visit this thread:

http://www.traderji.com/fundamental...alued-14-10-fundamental-valuation-sensex.html

Of course, as I always say fundamental valuation is good as long as market gets it, and it holds good for this too. But it can always be used as a reference for investment strategies.

Actually, as a followup i will soon be posting what sectors in SENSEX are over/under valued to give you a sense whats contributing to this overvaluation.
 
#54
If you think no one can tell what should be the value of SENSEX think twice.

Market is driven by 2 things - fundamentals and investor risk aversion. Sometimes, fundamentals dominate the latter(like in financial crisis) other times, latter dominates.(dot com)

But one can always calculate the intrinsic value of SENSEX estimating the FCFE of underlying stocks. I did this last week and published it on other thread, but thought people in this thread may want to look at it. Well, the estimated free floating market cap of SENSEX is 9.7 trillion and the current free floating market cap is 12.7 trillion. I am using free floating because thats what is used to calculate sensex. For complete methodology and detailed report you may want to visit this thread:

http://www.traderji.com/fundamental...alued-14-10-fundamental-valuation-sensex.html

Of course, as I always say fundamental valuation is good as long as market gets it, and it holds good for this too. But it can always be used as a reference for investment strategies.

Actually, as a followup i will soon be posting what sectors in SENSEX are over/under valued to give you a sense whats contributing to this overvaluation.
Reply

First of all thanks very much to provide such a valuable information :clapping:

You Said

(1) If you think no one can tell what should be the value of SENSEX think twice.

Ans-: if the estimation of Sensex valuations will be near by likely
hoods then its possible (By making various stastistics if you
want 100 % accuracte result then its impossible.
if you find then you can see so many parameters were
used by goverment to estimate future industrial growth
or
else but how much accuracy they used to get its very much
depend upon those variables those are vital for the calculations

We all know that Botton means always zero but realisticly at what extend This market can go

For this Just see attached file for Bottom Analysis

View attachment 13365

feed data in attached file format then applied Statistics probability with so many possibilities and get one answer out of crores possibilities for this you will be required a super fine computer system.

Then You can reach a near by destination as govrment finds & make it as

their near by lend mark.

When they will reach their near by position then they will analized it by huge

pressure at 2 three times & count the immovable fund positions towards

down side then fresh investment of all the big investors take plac.

These thing are as well as possible for higher valuations of sensex when you

will see that market fund positions are in particular range for a huge evel of

time then you can find big correction

(2) You said

Market is driven by 2 things - fundamentals and investor risk aversion. Sometimes, fundamentals dominate the latter(like in financial crisis) other times, latter dominates.(dot com)

Yes market is run by your above mentions things but so many crucial things

are also important like Global environment & positive and negetive news with

respect to the script those can effect the sales or profitability of the

company. its very crucial.

(3) intrinsic value -:

Thats call the estimation statistics , like budget of any kind

(4) But my dear very important factor of the market is the chances of gainig

because out of 100 % free floating investment only 70 to 75 % used to

investment rest of the same was consumed in charges , scams else.

Thats why the range analysis of the market is very crucial.

(5) Do you know? Last years 12500 sensex valuations of scripts as compare to current valuations both are just near by then where apx 5000 points sensex is being consumed in charges , scam or in industrial development, are you finding any thing in cheap rates as compare to 2007,Means stock market’s money is not rotating properly

But as far as your calculation is concern, you are saying sensex is 14.1% over valued ,means what ever the data you are taking those are not enough to provide near by informations

Intellectually your estimation is good but seems to be very bookish

For making your fundamental analysis more accurate you have to study India , American ,China's stock market model and its money's utilisation in realy market by analyzing so many factors like charges,scams,less rain,else,rate of corruptions else

Why China & us are very develop countries because they have much more accurate data base and they give proper control

over stock market money to flow in outer market.after doing all these from so many years now their market start to provide

very less reurn............and we are 3 step back then all these ones.

US is a capitalist economy, china is a communist economy but in India we are being with democracy as far as the utilization of Stock Market money in US & CHAINA is concern, they Can control it by their economy model at an extend that’s why you can see the rate of industrial development in US & CHAINA was utmost in last 100 years because they flow the stock markets money in real market and control the corruptions & increased long term productive system.

India is a democratic country that’s why they require different model of stock market which is based on long term vision as per current model stock market's money is not flowing in real market properly due to this actual rate of inflations is going to be increased day by day & corruptions is breaking one after another record.

So dear for finding near estimations,country need cortrol over all kinds of corruptions and very less brokerage system are needed.Then over market can reach a level of "us or china" where they are at present.

This will provide the flow of money in outer market properly & estimation of rate of inflaction will better as compair to

current time .

If this is not possible then a certain change is needed in current stock market model as a public stock market for long term

vision where money inflow and out flow will be fully calculated.

So dear add all require variables to accurate your estimations

Its my thinking if you like then take the same or just forget
 
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