What is the realistic Bottom of this market

What is the maximum Bottom level of this BSE ?

  • 4500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 5500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 6500

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • 7500

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • 8500

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • 9500

    Votes: 6 28.6%

  • Total voters
    21
  • Poll closed .
#21
Science means interpreting charts, cross-market analysis, studying momentum and figuring out variables. The future of the world will be determined by whether the increase in M1 leads to inflation or whether the door will be closed with an audacious filling in of AD as a short-term measure. I don't believe the latter is possible, so at the end of the liquidity blast (enjoy it while it lasts), there will have to be tightening and a second, significant correction.The low we form at that stage will determine whether we're entering a new secular bull market or if we'll be trading in a band for a fair few years. Track bond prices to figure out when that correction is near. If we break 5% on the 30-year US treasury, run from equities. Also track an inflation index (non-agri, non-precious metals) because an inflationary trend is a necessary condition for the correction I'm talking about above.

The above may or may not work out, but I suggest it's worth trying real theory instead of conspiracy theory.[/QUOTE]

Reply

(1) Firstly you didn’t give the proper reply of my earlier mail by any chart and
Data tool which is saying that you are right by your points

(2) You didn’t read any of my mail carefully

(3) You are very much curious to know what is science or a theory

(4) When all the data of any market is not being figured out properly then
Scientific assumption will come out here some how expert’s advice will
Take place when stock market was around 21000 level in jan 2008 that
Moment, market experts were telling that market will be reached a level
Of 24000 they all were calculating by their chart analysis, funding in the
Market and behalf of their experience suddenly market went down 1500
Points so I am not saying that they all were doing any conspiracy with
Small investors or else if you will search then you find thousands of
examples of the same

(5) Traderji is a dam good plat form to place over view points, thousands of
experts Are here and we all respects over gratitude towards them my
motto was trying to Know a starting range of this market & I was very
much know that this can’t be figure Out Properly due to last 20 years
chart of bse I took data of year /1993 that time Sensex were around 2300 / Jan (end) and make it as a standard of market bottom and So many
Experts are here who can calculate the rate of inflation & additional capital
Of so many Scripts & also able to calculate the real burden of brokerage,
bse/nse Charges, fraud, IPO scam, bell out package realizations and GDP
growth & interest burden since Jan/1993 to 2009 then some how we can find a level of
bottoms of this market so Many Experts were telling their view point by
their experience you are a unique one Which I found who used to Talk about
science a lot then apply your science as per my Saying from 1993(or
before) to 2009 and make so many charts to do data interpretation
And try to reach a Level of figure then I feel that you are a real science
lover do you know What is calculation level of a super computer has, I
think these calculations are very Minute for a super computer

(6) Stock market science is based on data & assumptions because equity
can’t be Controlled , just imaging when market is distorted behalf of government change
(example -: 2003 Without majority (Lower Circuit) & 2008 full majority
(upper circuit) suppose you Were invested in 2003 before 5 day of upa
government establishment suddenly Market got down tremendously then
you had got tremendous loss what ever the chart
Calculations or variable you have calculated were failed I can imaging that
you were Telling that this upa government had done a great deal of
conspiracy with me When any bank will be failed in United States next day
a great fall came in Banking sectors so can you make a chart of that only
you can assume a bit that How Much fund will be removed?

(7) What are the maximum gaining chances for small investors inside this
stock market?
Ans-: When market at its lower level & all the big investors were waiting for
their investment & They all were in a needy situations; then at least we
all have to know a slight idea of this Markets bottom.
(8) Then what do you feel about those fund managers those used to invest
inside, ulip growth or mutul funds and wasn’t able to provide return to
their investors by analyzing charts , graph , Variable data with best
information’s sources as per your science they have done the conspiracy with small
Trader’s but I dont think so year 2008 was the biggest example of the same

(9) Do one thing just depend on charts fully don’t take any assumption by
any news or else and do Trade continuously then you can find horrible
results


So my dear stock market’s science is based on data & assumptions that’s why expert advice is always countable & we cant blame any body for their assumption if equity or stock market will be fully controlled by the government then you wont need to make any chart because every figure will be coming out with very clear image & every investment will be on long term basis.

AD123
 
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#22
urr.. markets are efficient mechanisms. They don't exist for everyone to make money. They don't exist to go up every day. Value is not added on secondary markets. Your fears and apprehensions seem to come out of not understanding the basis of EMH. Fund managers, long-only funds and the like are the ones who provide the money for sharps to benefit from. Yet, secular uptrends leave enough on the table for the long-onlys. Prices are determined on the margin, so the illusion of wealth will always exist and when people try to encash that illusion, it will always become a lot smaller in size. That's why sentiment and confidence play such a big part.

My previous post is self-explanatory. chart out the history of global equities - with the exception of Japan you'll find markets move in synch; EMs are high beta if you compare them with the S&P. Track bond and stock prices - with the exception of 2000, you'll find they move together. The export of a deflationary cycle from the Asian financial crisis is what caused that divergence. That continued with the flight to safety more recently - and that is often the case during market corrections. But, with a return to Keynesian style policy the 70s are our best proxy. Rationally - you should see a return to bond prices and stocks moving together. So when commodities rise, bond prices fall (yields rise) and stocks will fall on a lag. the 5% yield on the 30-year is a significant resistence. If that breaks, sell equities.

Intermarket analysis is the theoretical basis of the world. Money flows come out of intermarket analysis.

Your theory depends on you knowing answers to questions that nobody knows. That's what makes it flawed. When you came down from 21k to 12k, a lot of people were convinced that was the bottom. Buy there, see 33% corrosion - stick or sell? Lower, not so low? Your model of market bottoms assumes a static world, while we live in a dynamic world. You can't model a market bottom based on historical data alone. Fund flows determine everything - you can't quantify the entire world and what several important agents will do. You can only watch for signs and arrive at likelihoods.

PS- any chartist with respect for the science, would have been short at 21k, not long. quality economists saw the collapse coming. the basis of dow theory continues to explain the marketplace. cheers.
 
#24
a conspiracy theory is not the same as a conspiracy.
Based on your reply above, I can only assume you're so convinced of a naive theory that reason shall not interfere with your beliefs. I'm not here to defend anyone - but your theory is a non-actionable, self-fulfilling drivel that has no place in the field of analytics. Cheers.
 
#26
Hah, you're a funny guy. Data is historical.
Try adding rate of changing of velocity of EM allocations, percentage change in Equity allocations as a percentage of GDS and other such variables that determine the velocity of money and thus market prices to your own model. Your model is a sum total of leaving out factors that could interfere with your theory.

No amount of data mining will find you the answers you're looking for. I told you how to go about verifying my scenario building for triggers - I'll leave it to you to find the charts or leave it be. I'm not particularly bothered about prooving a point or any such thing, so I'm not going to spend hours mining out data. Any basic intermarket analysis book will give you most of the graphs I refer to - hit up Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy, as a starting point. Cheers.
 
#27
B]Reply[/B]

Give me the answer of followings in yes or no. behalf of last 20 years (dec/1990 to aug/2009) journey of indian stock market
Q1 Can we estimate "Yearly / Monthly / Daily final fund figure"with respect to rate of inflation, GDP, Industrial growth,Bell out package, frauds / over all charges etc., inside stock interpretation? Yes or not


Q2 Can we estimate "Yearly / Monthly / Daily final sensex valuations" with respect to final fund figure Q1? Yes or not


Q3 Can we estimate Yearly / Monthly / Daily final Script / sectors or other Product’s. Valuations with respect to rate of Inflation, GDP Industrial growth, bell out package, frauds / over all charges etc. by final fund figure Q1? Yes / not

Q4 Can we estimate last 20 years final fund figure (dec/1990 to aug/2009) with respect to rate of inflation, GDP, Industrial growth,Bell out package, frauds / over all charges inside stock interpretation? Yes or not

Q5 Can we estimate last 20 years final sensex valuations with respect to final fund figure Q4 ? Yes or not

You said when sensex was reached at a level of 12000 that moment people were accepting this as the bottom of the market there after market was corrected around more 33 %. So what do you feel that was the bottom, do one thing?
Give the answers of above mentions 5 question and try to find out the final figure of the same then automatically you will be having some idea about bottom

There after a very special science will applicable

give the answer with care because this will say every thing about your personality………………Cheers.[/QUOTE]
 
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#28
We aren't in a personality contest here - at leats I'm not. All I care about is the science of markets.

Your questions:
1) Future fund flows? You can trend something and arrive at a broad, meaningless estimate which could be right on small samples of data but would likley be inaccurate overall. Because you can't estimate the velocity of EM flows, as a starting point. Domestic flows can be estimated - but allocations cannot. So again, you can arrive at a meaningless figure, not an accurate figure.
2) I have no idea what you're trying to say here. If you're looking at some sort of averaging or play on numbers - obviously that's possible.
3) Again, what are you trying to say? What is the final figure you're looking for? What do you mean by "valuations" are you talkinbg about price or a multiple. In either case, you'd arrive at one number, another bloke would arrive at another number and so on. The entire process is worthless though, because you're not trying to estimate the alpha involved or the beta really. You'd have no predictive powers built into a model like this!
4) Yes, but this would only be useful to someone conducting a social survey on effectiveness of policy and wealth creation.
5) What "fund figure" overall holdings of all funds? Sure.

It's clear to me that you think you're the smartest bloke on the planet. Unfortunately, markets don't respect personal self-glorified brilliance. This is a science where we work to uncover an edge. Not some game where you'll uncover a unfiying theory. people have been trying junk like this since the 1880s. So relax.
 
#29
YOU HAVE WRITTEN "

We aren't in a personality contest here - at least I'm not. All I care about is

the science of markets.

do your science as per attached file
View attachment 13144


feed data in attached file format then applied Statistics probability with so many possibilities and get one answer out of crores possibilities for this you will be required a super fine computer system

please note that Statistics's probability is a part of estimated science if you wont able to do so then please give me 20 years fund figure as per attached file

U]Give me the answer of followings in yes or no. behalf of last 20 years (dec/1990 to aug/2009) journey of indian stock market as per attached file[/U]

Q1 Can we estimate "Yearly / Monthly / Daily final fund figure"with respect to rate of inflation, GDP, Industrial growth,Bell out package, frauds / over all charges etc., inside stock interpretation? Yes or not


Q2 Can we estimate "Yearly / Monthly / Daily final sensex valuations" with respect to final fund figure Q1? Yes or not


Q3 Can we estimate Yearly / Monthly / Daily final Script / sectors or other Product’s. Valuations with respect to rate of Inflation, GDP Industrial growth, bell out package, frauds / over all charges etc. by final fund figure Q1? Yes / not

Q4 Can we estimate last 20 years final fund figure (dec/1990 to aug/2009) with respect to rate of inflation, GDP, Industrial growth,Bell out package, frauds / over all charges inside stock interpretation? Yes or not

Q5 Can we estimate last 20 years final sensex valuations with respect to final fund figure Q4 ? Yes or not
 
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#30
you're trying to model fundamentals without understanding fundamentals. These macro pictures and historical averages are terrible estimates of performance, because each market cycle has its own unique properties. Money flows determine where the market bottoms and where it tanks. You can use variables in conjunction with charts to arrive at likelihoods, but this static, one-dimensional, unifying theory approach is the stuff of novices. If you've got all the answers in this great fool-proof way as you seem to think you have, you wouldn't be on an internet forum - you'd be on a beach in spain, sipping on a few mojitos with beautiful blondes either side of you. Life aint so easy, and markets punish us all. Work, uncover an edge, reap the benefits - always be humbled by what the markets can do to the sharpest piece of analysis.