Warnig.......market will fall
- Thread starter abir das
- Start date
Hello friends,
I am stick to my views.After, sharp pull back from recent low,yet to convince that,market is out of danger.
Market had completed 21 impulsive sub wave at 5310 on 6th of january,2010.we have to complete another 13 corrective sub wave.
we are in only 2nd corrective wave out of 13.
Technical guys ,please, check it in nifty weekly chart in line mode.
Long pain full days are ahead of us.any pull back rallies should be exited.
with regards
abir das
I am stick to my views.After, sharp pull back from recent low,yet to convince that,market is out of danger.
Market had completed 21 impulsive sub wave at 5310 on 6th of january,2010.we have to complete another 13 corrective sub wave.
we are in only 2nd corrective wave out of 13.
Technical guys ,please, check it in nifty weekly chart in line mode.
Long pain full days are ahead of us.any pull back rallies should be exited.
with regards
abir das
remember, index's are not designed to go down, they are designed to go up in long term. So as far as you invest in fundamentally good businesses, you will continue to earn with 5 years view. I agree, 5200 was the time to book some profits but I would start buying again bellow 4700 but again I am pure speculator and learning to invest.
Invest in utility companies, like power, railways, they will make you money in 5 years.
I suggest, go long in nifty futures once its fallen up to YOUR expectation or when it goes above 100DMA and where you are comfortable loosing 20% with 1:2 margin (invest double in index future then your money) and just keep rolling your position with 10% stop loss for 5 years and you will find your money will double, guaranteed.
India is still developing market and there is lots of room on up side. Don't believe bears be a bull till 2025.
Invest in utility companies, like power, railways, they will make you money in 5 years.
I suggest, go long in nifty futures once its fallen up to YOUR expectation or when it goes above 100DMA and where you are comfortable loosing 20% with 1:2 margin (invest double in index future then your money) and just keep rolling your position with 10% stop loss for 5 years and you will find your money will double, guaranteed.
India is still developing market and there is lots of room on up side. Don't believe bears be a bull till 2025.
Your chart do not represents any proper wedge, god bless you if you truly believe this market is going down bellow 4000. Even if your dream come true make sure you invest tons of money in Indian markets because India has just started developing and standard of living has just started improving in India. Look at all insurance and mutual fund money waiting on side lines. They are sitting on cash, they will buy everything when market falls.
I also recommend buying bharti airtel on slides, remember, bharti is strong mature company and is just being hammered down due to buch of analysts publishing scary reports. Once again, I must remind you do not invest more then 2% in any company (this is what i have learned but I am very new to investing but good speculator), so for example, if bharti do not perform well, maximum you remain at same level of may be 0.5% down but if gamble plays you will end up doubling your money in 3 years.
Also buy GOLD, your portfolio must consist of 5-10% gold. Let it be cash or futures invest in GOLD, its your hedge against inflation and its target is 24000/10gms in next 5 years.
I also recommend buying bharti airtel on slides, remember, bharti is strong mature company and is just being hammered down due to buch of analysts publishing scary reports. Once again, I must remind you do not invest more then 2% in any company (this is what i have learned but I am very new to investing but good speculator), so for example, if bharti do not perform well, maximum you remain at same level of may be 0.5% down but if gamble plays you will end up doubling your money in 3 years.
Also buy GOLD, your portfolio must consist of 5-10% gold. Let it be cash or futures invest in GOLD, its your hedge against inflation and its target is 24000/10gms in next 5 years.
Abir,
Please remember that all theories and all forms of analysis are not compulsive. What I mean is that it is not a "rule" for patterns to be complete or for waves to be complete. Ellliot Wave is another form of analysis which is not a holy grail. You might be right in your analysis but in my opinion try n avoid using "have to" words in your own systems. We all are students of the market and surprisingly we get punished when we use "market's have to" phrase in our systems. Opinions should change with time. Because as facts change, the opinions have to change.
Again, this is my opinion, you can be totally right and I wish you good luck going ahead.
Tc
Please remember that all theories and all forms of analysis are not compulsive. What I mean is that it is not a "rule" for patterns to be complete or for waves to be complete. Ellliot Wave is another form of analysis which is not a holy grail. You might be right in your analysis but in my opinion try n avoid using "have to" words in your own systems. We all are students of the market and surprisingly we get punished when we use "market's have to" phrase in our systems. Opinions should change with time. Because as facts change, the opinions have to change.
Again, this is my opinion, you can be totally right and I wish you good luck going ahead.
Tc
I believe you have not read my post well, I said if the market decides to trade along the upper trendline..............................Anyways divergence in RSI and a failed head and shoulders helped me get out out of the market at the right time,(Deliveries). Also do let me know ,What went wrong with Indias fundamentals when we saw oct 2009 lows.
I believe ,the market is neither driven by technicals nor by fundamentals, They are driven by GREED and FEAR. Technicals And fundamental analsys atre just tools to read and predict the market.
Money my friend doesnt evaporatr in thin air, Rs 100 from my pocket can go into your pocket and from your pocket to somebodyelses pocket, but will allways remain in the system. So if American banks went bankrupt,it didnt mean that the money has evaporated
Presently the markets are driven by liquidity . The indices are rising , so are gold prices and bond prices. For a real bull market, bond and gold prices need to come down considerably and the returns from the indices should be more that the returns from gold
For long term investors I believe should calculate their investments in terms of real money (Gold). The stock you buy for 1 ounce of gold today should atleast fetch you 1.1 ounces of gold 5 to 7 years from now to break even.
I believe ,the market is neither driven by technicals nor by fundamentals, They are driven by GREED and FEAR. Technicals And fundamental analsys atre just tools to read and predict the market.
Money my friend doesnt evaporatr in thin air, Rs 100 from my pocket can go into your pocket and from your pocket to somebodyelses pocket, but will allways remain in the system. So if American banks went bankrupt,it didnt mean that the money has evaporated
Presently the markets are driven by liquidity . The indices are rising , so are gold prices and bond prices. For a real bull market, bond and gold prices need to come down considerably and the returns from the indices should be more that the returns from gold
For long term investors I believe should calculate their investments in terms of real money (Gold). The stock you buy for 1 ounce of gold today should atleast fetch you 1.1 ounces of gold 5 to 7 years from now to break even.
Share maket is a zero sum game, Profit of one is the loss of other, nett nett is zero.
So is most of the deals, purchase, loans etc. so banks have lost money, but that money has gone into somebodys' hands due to bad loans only.
But, the same is not true with capital Erosion . incase of fall in market or fall in currency values, where the money has eroded due to fall in price/value, here it is not a zero sum game. like one mans profit is not another mans loss. this is Erosion of capital, which is why most banks went bankrupt, not only beacuse of bad loans only.
Most banks had undue exposure to capital market and lost money due to Marked to Market losses, and went bankrupt. Please recall the steep fall we had in ICICI bank share prices when they reported MTM losses.
So is most of the deals, purchase, loans etc. so banks have lost money, but that money has gone into somebodys' hands due to bad loans only.
But, the same is not true with capital Erosion . incase of fall in market or fall in currency values, where the money has eroded due to fall in price/value, here it is not a zero sum game. like one mans profit is not another mans loss. this is Erosion of capital, which is why most banks went bankrupt, not only beacuse of bad loans only.
Most banks had undue exposure to capital market and lost money due to Marked to Market losses, and went bankrupt. Please recall the steep fall we had in ICICI bank share prices when they reported MTM losses.
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