Warnig.......market will fall

[DanPickUp]

Hello Friends,

I will be glad to be wrong.many of you have doubt about my views.
time will tell.........lets see.
every one is welcome to express his/her views.
:clapping:
with regards
Abir das

Hy

I like your sense of humor and I love that you have humor.

But seriously, nobody of us is a prophet. Even then, there are people who became very rich by looking at the starts and making decisions through that for trading. Sounds incredible, but it happen.

My shoo example is a way to make trading decisions. It is a ridiculous one, but if you test it in the next 25 years, you will have the same chances in market long time prediction with out fundamentals like any body else. It is always 50 to 50 or you have some specific odds in your favor.

Buddy, take care and good trading

DanPickUp

 

[MaxBombay]

Hello Friends,
i know every one will surprise and visit my post to know some thing special.
Here it is,
NIFTY not likely to touch 5300 within this year. many chances of going below 4000. This will happen within next 5/6 months. after correcting it will break previous high of 6350 and will surplus comfortably later next year.There is very strong bearish technical bearish signal on long term chart.
I dont know, how many of us can identify that. I will not disclose that. but, i can assure any technical person that, it wasnt GAP theory or weekly negative divergence with parameter.
If, any one ask me about down side target?
I cant predict as of now.but, i can assure every one of us that, nifty will not touch 5300 in this year anymore.
Forget about The Budget or strong IIP data, some major negative news expected in coming days.
ITS MY PERSONAL OPINION, YOU CAN CONSULT ANY FINANCIAL EXPERT BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION.


With Warm Regards
Abir Das

markets may not fall bellow 4400-4200. I suggest everyone invest on 4700,4400,4000 and less then 4000 for 3 years or wait till market reverse from 200DMA.

 

[abir das]

Hi,
Thank you MaxBombay,..... for your valuable opinion.

I dont think 200 DMA will hold. but your overall conception about investment is awesome.
keep posting.
- ABIR DAS

 

[SCION]

No one is arguing whether you or bunny or someone else is wrong or right.....
If you can plot it on chart and point out fair and good enough,else these days most threads in tj represent a Subzee mandi.
I said market will fall
I said wolfe works
I said johhny lever will be the next Prime minister....
who cares for this b.s,only a extra load on the servers....EOD the only ones to be auctioned in the mandis will be the I's in you's....

Hello Friends,

I will be glad to be wrong.many of you have doubt about my views.
time will tell.........lets see.
every one is welcome to express his/her views.
:clapping:
with regards
Abir das

 

[bunny]

No one is arguing whether you or bunny or someone else is wrong or right.....
If you can plot it on chart and point out fair and good enough,else these days most threads in tj represent a Subzee mandi.
I said market will fall
I said wolfe works
I said johhny lever will be the next Prime minister....
who cares for this b.s,only a extra load on the servers....EOD the only ones to be auctioned in the mandis will be the I's in you's....

Yes why not, I can plot on chart and put it here. But the question is that will YOU understand it given that my method is not same as yours?

 

[SCION]

good point wrt VSA(i cannot make head or tail of it,infact i care a damn for volumes),but EWT is something we can deal with....


:thumb:

Yes why not, I can plot on chart and put it here. But the question is that will YOU understand it given that my method is not same as yours?

 

[columbus]

Hi,
Thank you MaxBombay,..... for your valuable opinion.

I dont think 200 DMA will hold. but your overall conception about investment is awesome.
keep posting.
- ABIR DAS

Do not keep positions OPEN (either SHORT or LONG) before a major
event as rightly put by linkon7 "Assumptions is mother of major screwups".
Ride the trend only after happening.

Reversal in DMA-200 is seen only after 10 months of actuality.
(10*20.....20 sessions per month roughly)

 

[jlmalhotra]

I agree, notice the divergence in RSI in 10 year chart.

The Nifty failed to breakout 9f thr upper trendline on 23rd of Dec,broke 55 EMA on 22nd Jan and took support ar 144 EMA for couple of days.Again it breaks 144EMA and 144EMA acts as a resistance.
Presently the Nifty is trading above 144EMA and 55EMA is acting as a resistance.

The point is if Nifty decides to trade along the upper trendline,with upper trendline acting as a resistance,we might see newer lows in around second quarter of 2011 and this time the trigger might come from China (Spending heavily on infrastructure,making buildings that lie vacant;Increasing capacities of their manufacturing units, still, running below their capacites)

For the markets to remain healthy , Nifty should retrace upto the lower trendline and fill the gap of march 2009.

Also for people who see head and shoulder pattern (reverse) in Nifty,It is important for Nifty to touch 4000 levels.


BUDGET


The economy is on stimulus,fiscal deficit is about to go out of hand, Disinvestment programe is getting poor response from the markets,. 3G auction has been delayed by an year.

AND

THE Govt needs money for its poppulist schemes introduced before the elections

National Rural Gaurantee scheme.( A person is paid Rs 80 - 100 to dig a pit and another person is paid to fill the same up. FMCGs celebrate the scheme because it has raised the rural demand)

Increase in the salary bill by accepting recomendations of the 6th pay commision where the arrears of pensioners have still not been paid.

Therefore expect hike in taxes and excise dutuies.

Also

The confontration with China is long overdue,Expect major hike in defence budget this year after 3 major chineese intrusions last year.



Now where exactly do the Bulls see positive triggers. GDP numbers
How long would good GDP numbers support the market, 3 days,4 days a week max.

 

[jlmalhotra]

 

[jlmalhotra]

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6850/10nifty.jpg