Trading the trend

VIKAS 21

Well-Known Member
#32
HOW TO DETECT A CHANGE IN TREND:

I have seen the most people want to know more anout trend & how it chanes....

The below picture is a clear example of Trend & how it changes...






So overall there are four stages of the stock, these four stages are found in every stock & in every time frame.

Stage 1: The stock is in a range at point 1, it has just finished its downward journey....

stage 2: The stock has started gaining momentum, This is the stage where professional traders enters & the most of the money is made here. Novice are still out of it.

stage 3: stock again in a sideways range, Novice traders are getting in & professional traders are out.

stage 4: downtrend .........Nobody believes the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a "correction". Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during Stage 3.
 
#37
Everyone is requested to please be patient . Trends are not that easy that it appears in the books.There are lots of basic stuff involved which one needs to understand. Let us not jump to the methods straightaway.Methods are based on basics.

Vikas is going in right direction. In my view the methods part will not come in next 100 posts atleast. But when you have all the basics clear and then we have some very fine methods.But most people will not be able to trade them because the basics will not be sound.

So go slow....this thread is not about just one more method which people will try and move on to the next one. The method which I am personally trading is entirely based on the basic knowledge and if you understand that method one will be profitable on most of the days. In the other forum we had atleast 15-20 threads on basics and trends.

Basics are important. There is a definate point when the trend changes, and I am sure if I ask that point on a chart 95 % guys will get it wrong.

Smart_trade
 

hik

Well-Known Member
#38
I am not an accomplished trader like the Seniors on this forum, but am climbing the ladder a step at a time. I am sharing my views, although uninvited, in hope for sharpening my own perspective.



When one does not get the desired results he searches for new methods... that is the loop one has to snap out of.

The argument which pushed me to follow ONE SINGLE method:

"Only because the method gives super +ive results in (hours and hours of) backtesting have I decided to trade it with money. The results were exciting for historic 48 months, then why am I not getting results for as little as one or two live months. The method is approved.... then why are there no results !!"

Then my mistake appeared and this is a very common among us traders but so easily overlooked:

I was skipping entries because I read something in the newspaper, forum or got a new idea.

This was and still is such a big hurdle that I do not have words for. My Ego was not willing to take the risk of being wrong... no f****g way !!

After a few weeks of depression. I pulled that very method out and took every single entry.

But Still results were only break evenish. But, I felt I was almost there.

Again the next big mistake appeared...

Its a long story. But I will stop here.
Hi,
Just one question , hope iam not disturbing the thread starters dedication
You said you have back tested the method.
How did you do it?
Is it visual backtesting or bar by bar backtest(Going to a year back on chart moving candle by candle just like real time ) ??
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#40
Hi,

You said you have back tested the method.
How did you do it?

Is it visual backtesting or bar by bar backtest (Going to a year back on chart moving candle by candle just like real time ) ??
Backtesting was done with Excel sheet by the side and going Bar by Bar over NF 30 min data for the past 4 years. Just like RT.

What I got from it was the answer to this question:

After back to back 5 losing trades, will I put on the 6th trade? And that'd happen with what degree of internal conflict?
 

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