Tom de mark sequential monitor for nifty50 stocks

vivektrader

In persuit of financial independence.
@smarttrade and @vivektrader - nifty on weekly has completed 9-13-9 from demonetisation lows. Last 9 sell setup tdst was 10557.last week was a positive close.this week We have closed this week below 10557.If we get a lower low next week we will be on a qualified weekly break. As far as I can see first weekly break since 2008 lows. How are you guys viewing this. Appreciate your interpretation.thx.
Although I don't have experience of trading many 9-13-9s, few I did notice in the past, didnt move very well.
9-13-9 was there on weekly, now the stoploss was actually hit if you calculate it from true range of last 9, however it did correct and broke TDST support, so in a sense it has played out already. We did break weekly TDST support in April 2013 too.
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thanks Vivek. Agree weekly does not have a pretty good history.

In 2012-13 look at dec 2012, first we had a qualified upside break. Generally the thing I have noticed is for a qualified break,Is followed by rally in opposite direction. Then the actual move plays out.

My sense is generally a qualified break implies a 13 in that direction.

How do you view qualified breaks ?



Although I don't have experience of trading many 9-13-9s, few I did notice in the past, didnt move very well.
9-13-9 was there on weekly, now the stoploss was actually hit if you calculate it from true range of last 9, however it did correct and broke TDST support, so in a sense it has played out already. We did break weekly TDST support in April 2013 too.
View attachment 30971
 

vivektrader

In persuit of financial independence.
thanks Vivek. Agree weekly does not have a pretty good history.

In 2012-13 look at dec 2012, first we had a qualified upside break. Generally the thing I have noticed is for a qualified break,Is followed by rally in opposite direction. Then the actual move plays out.

My sense is generally a qualified break implies a 13 in that direction.

How do you view qualified breaks ?
What I remember having read is, a qualified break or a confirmed break of TDST is when a close below TDST support is followed within next 3days by a lower close.

Vivek
 

vivektrader

In persuit of financial independence.
I feel trading markets without sequential is practically trading blind. It gives oneself an overall frame of reference, "where we are, how long and far we are likely to stay there and where we are probably going to go".
It's very easy to get lost in this jungle named "Markets". Sequential shows the way.....

Vivek
 

travi

Well-Known Member
A recent interaction led me to try counts on USDINR, but i'm compelled to Fut data here over spot.
USDINR 27-11 completes Buy setup which is also near previous TD sup of 29-08
Crude Buy CD13 failed, although its on a bit of distorted data around 15-11 and down inr. 500 from there.

Last time wasn't interested in IBULHSGFIN, 22-10 completed a buy CD13, currently taking support there after a good pullback.
This one and YesBank are in same category, so if trade occurs, will be small position.

Strength indicators:
Hdfcbank completed sell setup 28-11
Indusindbk also sell setup complete & sell CD 4
Not checking other Pvt banks as all are in same range.
PSU banks not doing so well, BoB for eg. is on a tiny range sell setup 8 from 20-11 to 30-11. Not good for PSUs :)

Others:
Apollotyre Buy CD13 complete 22-10 last 4- sessions are sell setup bars1-4. RR favourable.
DishTV Buy CD13 complete 26-oct but not yet reversed or above CD13 bar.
DMART looking good, completed sell setup 7-11

Jindalsteel looks buy CD13 complete 26-11 and TD Sup of Dec 2018. I'm looking at commodity stocks, Jim Rogers, a Jack Schwager market wizard, sees commodity up cycle in 2019.

Infy 21-11 completed Buy CD13, laready at Sell setup bar3. 10% in 5 bars. Depends if Rupee holds at 70.

ExideInd Buy CD13 complete 19-11. I'm actually long here last 4 days around 249, didnt realize the count. Another Voltas moment i guess :D

Zeel buyCD13 23-10, now breaking out of previous TDres of 480.

More analysis later :D:D
 

vivektrader

In persuit of financial independence.
HI Vivek bhai,

Once a stock completes perfect 13 count and you bought it on buy flip. what would be different exit strategies we should apply or when we should exit?
Trade management after a sequential buy is opaque. As per system one should not book (even part booking), before a setup completes in opposite direction, which obviously doesn't happen always.
Then there is assesment of initial move after a buy, if it crosses the nearest tdst resistance within first 4-5 bars, it is likely to go as far as sell 13.
Haven't found any clear answers on how to trail....


Vivek
 

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