The myth - southwind

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#3
THE PSYCHOLOGY​
The Traders Mindset
Bennett McDowell, TradersCoach.com
(from Mrtq13's archive)
REPOSTED BY SOUTHWIND

Developing The Traders Mindset is a must for trading success and this can take some time. This is not an area where you can take a short cut or learn a formula. You usually develop it by actually trading and the experiences you gain from trading. We will help guide you towards developing The Traders Mindset and help you handle account draw-downs, losses, and profits. Yes, profits can actually cause you stress!

You can see how powerful psychology in trading is, if you show the same successful trading approach to one hundred different traders. No two of them will trade it exactly the same way. Why? Because each trader has a unique belief system and their beliefs will determine their trading style. That is why even with a profitable and proven trading approach, many traders will fail. They do not have the proper belief system to enable them to trade well. In other words, they lack The Traders Mindset.

When you encounter psychological issues it is best to recognize the issue, just be aware of it, dont deny it. In order to fix psychological issues we as human beings must first become aware of the problem and issues causing the problem in order to heal and fix the problem. This is much of what psychoanalysis is all about. The psychologist or psycho- therapist tries to let the patient first see the problem and then the patient must believe that these issues are causing the problem in order for the patient to heal. The reason this process can take so long, perhaps even years is because the patient needs to not only recognize their problems, but must accept that there truly is a problem. They must take responsibility for their problems to heal.

Success in trading is a direct result of a sound trading system, sound money management, proper capitalization, and sound psychology. All of these must be in sync to be successful in your trading. The ART system is designed to focus on all of these areas. The only area where you may need additional help once you have mastered your trading skills, is your psychology.

Psychology is the one area that you may need additional help and can take up to a year or so to resolve personal issues attaining trading success. Our consultation services focus on this aspect and if you find yourself struggling with psychological issues, you owe it to yourself to get help in this area.

Here is a list of common psychological trading issues and their causes:

Fear Of Being Stopped Out Or Fear Of Taking A Loss: The usual reason for this is that the trader fears failure and feels like he or she cannot take another loss. The traders ego is at stake.

Getting Out Of Trades Too Early: Relieving anxiety by closing a position. Fear of position reversing and then feeling let down. Need for instant gratification.

Adding On To A Losing Position (Doubling Down): Not wanting to admit your trade is wrong. Hoping it will come back. Again, ego is at stake.

Wishing And Hoping: Not wanting to take control or take responsibility for the trade. Inability to accept the present reality of the market place.

Compulsive Trading: Drawn to the excitement of the markets. Addiction and Gambling issues are present. Needing to feel you are in the game.

Anger After A Losing Trade: The feeling of being a victim of the markets. Unrealistic expectations. Caring too much about a specific trade. Tying your self-worth to your success in the markets. Needing approval from the markets.

Excessive Joy After A Winning Trade: Tying your self-worth to the markets. Feeling unrealistically in control of the markets.

Limiting Profits: You dont deserve to be successful. You dont deserve money or profits. Usually psychological issues such as poor self-esteem.

Not Following Your Proven Trading System: You dont believe it really works. You did not test it well. It does not match your personality. You want more excitement in your trading. You dont trust your own ability to chose a successful system.

Over Thinking The Trade, Second Guessing Your Trading Signals: Fear of loss or being wrong. Wanting a sure thing where sure things dont exist. Not understanding that loss is a part of trading and the outcome of each trade is unknown. Not accepting there is risk in trading. Not accepting the unknown.

Not Trading The Correct Position Size: Dreaming the trade will be only profitable. Not fully recognizing the risk and not understanding the importance of money management. Refusing to take responsibility for managing your risk.

Trading Too Much: Need to conquer the market. Greed. Trying to get even with the market for a previous loss. The

excitement of trading (similar to Compulsive Trading).
Afraid To Trade: No trading system in place. Not comfortable with risk and the unknown. Fear of total loss. Fear of ridicule.
Need for control.
Irritable after the Trading Day: Emotional roller coaster due to anger, fear, and greed. Putting too much attention on trading
results and not enough on the process and learning the skill of trading. Focusing on the money too much. Unrealistic trading expectations.

Trading With Money You Cannot Afford To Lose Or Trading :With Borrowed Money: Last hope at success. Trying to be successful at something. Fear of losing your chance at
opportunity. No discipline. Greed. Desperation.

These are by no means all the psychological issues but these are the most common. They usually center around the fact that for one reason or another, the trader is not following their chosen trading approach or system. And instead prefers to wing it or trade their emotions which in trading will always get you in trouble. So, I think you can see how psychology is all important in trading.

Our goal as traders in regards to psychology is to maintain an even keel so to speak when trading. Our winning trades and losing trades should not affect us. Obviously we are trading better when we are winning, but emotionally we should strive to maintain an even balance emotionally in regards to our wins and our losses.

It will happen when it happens and when you achieve this level of mental ability; it will come after working long and ******* your problems, but will come without you knowing it. It usually happens when you least expect it.

Below is a list of what one feels after acquiring The Traders Mindset.

-Sense of calmness
-Ability to focus on the present reality
-Not caring which way the market breaks or moves
-Always aligning trades in the direction of the market, flowing
with the market
-Not caring about the money
-Always looking to improve your skills
-Profits now accumulating and flowing in as your skills improve
-Keeping an open mind, keeping opinions to a minimum
-Accepting the risk in trading
-No Anger
-Learning from every trade
-Winning and losing trades accepted equally from an emotional
standpoint
-Enjoying the process
-Trading your chosen approach or system and not being
influenced by the market or others
-Not feeling a need to conquer or control the market
-Feeling confident and feeling in control of yourself
-A sense of not forcing the markets or yourself
-Trading with money you can afford to risk
-No feeling of ever being victimized by the markets
-Taking full responsibility for your trading
When you can read the list above and genuinely say thats me, you have arrived!
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#4
THE PSYCOLOGY​
POSTED BY SOUTHWIND

I was reading a head banging issue in the net, thought of putting that here so the inmates could give a deep thought and provide feedback with deep insight.
We have some cool TA around and hope they will participate.

"Trading Indicators Are Useless
As a professional futures trader, I have spent my early days of my career making every possible newbie mistake in trading. This involved relying on rookie indicators such as the stochastics and moving average crosses, from relying on candlestick patterns, and newbie chart patterns such as head-n-shoulders and triangles.

As a new trader I lost 2 trading accounts without clearly understanding the pure action of price. The day my trading career turned around was the day I took all my indicators off and relied solely on price action. I then studied market profile to understand price acceptance vs rejection; market balance vs market imbalance.

Now, my core methodology is based on market profile, pivots, and tape reading. Indicators in my opinion are useless. A new trader who relies on indicators will never learn the true art of trading. Market conditions change everyday and indicators and systems must be tweaked constantly. Yet, newbies look for indicators as the holy grail.

Indicators indicate. They are lagging signals. Profitable trading requires understanding market concept and understanding the language of the markets. Every trader must be in sync/zone with the markets. Just listen to it carefully... and you will be able to hear what the markets are telling you.

I always recommend new traders to stare at price and tape until they are able to understand price action. Rely on proven strategies using market internals and support & resistance levels. Tape reading offers a significant edge in short term trading. Combine strategy, knowledge, and money management and you will be light years ahead of other traders."
Posted by
James Lee of Traders Laboratory
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#5
THE PSYCHOLOGY​
Trading Mistakes
By Nick Proffitt
(archival post of Mrtq13)
REPOSTED BY SOUTHWIND

Just about everyone knows the grisly statistics about options trading: 90% of all naked option players (no, that doesn't mean they trade in the buff, only that they buy uncovered puts or calls) end up losing money. But hardly anyone knows the equally grisly statistics about equity trading: 80% of all stock investors end up losing money.

But how can that be, you ask? Over time, the stock market is a sure thing, a guaranteed way to make money. It's so easy. All you have to do is buy good stocks and hold them. Everybody says this, pundits, brokers, financial advisors, the media, the historical record itself. No one who simply bought and held the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 has ever lost money over a 20-year time span. Right? Yes, right. Now go find me someone who bought and held for 20-years. You should be able to find a few, about 20% to be precise. The other 80% lose money.

How does this happen? A couple of ways. Primarily, it happens because no matter how resolute people think they are about buying and holding, they usually fall into the same old emotional pattern of buying high and selling low. Investors are human beings. Human beings naturally want to be in the winning camp, and human beings naturally seek to avoid pain. When things are most euphoric in the investment world, at the top of a long bull market, these human beings are in there buying. And when things are most painful, at the end of bear market, these human beings are in there selling. In fact, it's usually the final capitulation of the last remaining "holders" that sets up the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market. As Sy Harding says in his excellent book "Riding The Bear," while people may promise themselves at the top of bull markets that this time they'll behave differently, "no such creature as a buy and hold investor ever emerged from the other side of the subsequent bear market." Statistics compiled by Ned Davis Research back up Harding's assertion. Every time the market declines more than 10% (and "real" bear markets don't even officially begin until the decline is 20%), mutual funds experience net outflows of investor money. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Most bear markets last for months (the norm), or even years (both the 1929 and 1966 bear markets), and one can see how the torture of losing money week after week, month after month, would wear down even the most determined buy and holder. But the average investor's pain threshold is a lot lower than that. The research shows that It doesn't matter if the bear market lasts less than 3 months (like the 1990 bear) or less than 3 days (like the 1987 bear). People will still sell out, usually at the very bottom, and almost always at a loss.

So THAT is how it happens. And the only way to avoid it is to avoid owning stocks during bear markets. If you try to ride them out, odds are you'll fail. And if you believe that we are in a New Era, and that bear markets are a thing of the past, your next of kin will have my sympathies.

But people lose money in other ways, too, even during the strongest of bull markets. Let's look at some of the more common trading mistakes to which people are prone. Many of them are related, part and parcel of the same refusal to pay proper attention to risk management. If you recognize your own actions in some of these, join the club. Over the years, I've committed every sin on the list at least once. Still do on occasion.

-- Letting small losses turn into large losses.

A whole myriad of mistakes accompany this one. Refusing to take a loss at all. Overbetting. Catching falling knives. Averaging down. Etc., etc.. At root, it's probably because the average investor pays little mind to risk management. In a way, it's understandable. The majority of those in the market today have only come into the market during the last 5 to 7 years. They have never really experienced a serious bear market. The only investing world they know is that of an ongoing bull market, where it's ALWAYS okay to buy the dips, where a stock that craters ALWAYS comes back. But SOMEBODY bought UBid at 121. And SOMEBODY bought eBay at 234. I hope it wasn't you. You should only be buying stocks that are in an ongoing uptrend (hopefully not TOO far along however), or those that are bottoming out following a stiff correction. In other words, when you buy a stock it should be with the expectation that it will go up (otherwise, why buy it?). If it goes down instead, you've made a mistake in your analysis. Either you're early, or just plain wrong. It amounts to the same thing. There is no shame in being wrong, only in STAYING wrong. If a stock does not quickly begin to move in the direction you envisioned when you purchased it, you should begin to question your reasons for owning it and you should immediately put it on a short leash. If it doesn't turn in relatively quick fashion, get rid of it. You can always go back in later, when it really turns. This goes to the heart of the familiar adage: let winners run, cut losers short. Nothing will eat into your performance more than carrying a bunch of dogs and their attendant fleas, both in terms of actual losses and in terms of dead, or underperforming, money.

-- Refusing to take a loss at all.

I simply don't understand the way some people think. From whence came the idiotic notion that a loss "on paper" isn't a "real" loss until you actually sell the stock? Or that a profit isn't a profit until the stock is sold and the money is in the bank? Nonsense. Your stock and your portfolio is worth whatever you can sell it for, at the market, right at this moment. No more. No less. People are reluctant to sell a loser for a variety of reasons. For some it's an ego/pride thing, an inability to admit they've made a mistake. That is false pride, and it's faulty thinking. Your refusal to acknowledge a loss doesn't make it any less real. Hoping and waiting for a loser to come back and save your fragile pride is dumb. Your loser may NOT come back. And even if it does, a stock that is down 50% has to put up a 100% gain just to get back to breakeven. Losses are a cost of doing business, a part of the game. If you never have losses, then you are not trading properly. Most pros have three losers for every winner. They make money by keeping the losses small and letting the profits build. You should be almost happy to take a loss. It means that you have jettisoned an underachiever stock and have freed up that dead money to put to better use elsewhere. Take your losses ruthlessly, put them out of mind and don't look back, and turn your attention to your next trade.

-- Overbetting.

This gets into the realm of money management. Diversification, the process of spreading your investment capital around in different assets and sectors to feather the vagaries of the market, has gotten a bit of a bum rap lately. Some of the New Paradigm folks think the concept is "old fashioned." These tend to be the same people who have every last dime in a handful of internet stocks. That's not investing, or even trading. It's gambling. Preservation of capital is paramount. If you run out of chips, game over man. You may feel a bit envious the day your neighbor, who has put everything he owns into Zowie.com parks his new Mercedes in the driveway next door, but you'll feel a lot better the day the repo man comes with the tow truck to take it back. Most professionals will allocate no more than 2-5% of their total investment capital to any one position. Ten percent should be your absolute max. One more thing. I've checked the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and nowhere in either of them does it say that you have to have ALL of your money in the stock market ALL of the time. Money management also pertains to your total investment posture. Even when your analysis is overwhelmingly bullish, it never hurts to have at least some cash on hand, earning its 5% in the money market. You'll need it when you see that next "can't miss" stock but don't want to sell any of your other "can't miss" stocks to raise the money to buy it. Your exposure should be consistent with your overall market analysis. As the market becomes more overbought, overextended, and overvalued, your cash level should rise accordingly. Then as the market gets more oversold and undervalued, you can raise your market exposure accordingly. Being ALL in the market or ALL out of the market sounds like a good idea, and it may work out wonderfully on paper, but it rarely plays out so smoothly in real life and real investing. But you should still employ a sliding scale of exposure, based on your market analysis.

-- Bottom fishing/Catching falling knives.

Many of the daily e-mails I get are of the following type: "Nick, Zowie.com is down 23 points today. Time to buy?!!!" My answer is almost always the same. "Put your pants on, Spartacus. No!" Don't ANTICIPATE bottoms. It's tempting to try to pinpoint an exact low, especially if you're working with indictors like Fibonacci fan and time lines, cycle studies, regression channels, even plain old lateral support points. But it's almost always better to let the stock find its bottom on it's own, and then start to nibble. Just because a stock is down big doesn't mean it can't go down even bigger. In fact, a major multipoint drop is often just the beginning of a larger decline. It's always satisfying to catch an exact low tick, but when it happens it's usually by accident. Let stocks and markets bottom and top on their own and limit your efforts to recognizing the fact "soon enough." Nobody, and I mean nobody, can consistently nail the bottom tick or top tick. Those who try usually get burned.

-- Averaging down.

Don't do it. For one thing, you shouldn't even have the opportunity, because you should have sold that dog before it got to the level where averaging down is tempting. The pros average UP, not down; they got to be pros because they added to winners, not losers. And speaking of averaging UP, there's a right way to do it. And doubling your position is not it. Rather, you should add 1/2 your original stake. If other words, if you already own 100 shares and want to bolster your position, you buy 50 shares. If you later decide to add more, you add 25 shares, etc. Why you should do it this way is too long to go into here, but that's the way the math works out best for you.

-- Shorting bulls and buying bears.

Yes, there are stocks that will go up in bear markets and stocks that will go down in bull markets, but it's usually not worth the effort to hunt for them. The vast majority of stocks, some 80+%, will go with the market flow. And so should you. It doesn't make sense to counter trade the prevailing market trend. If you're worried about a short term pullback, simply cut back on your trading, take a few profits, and build up your stash of cash. Let that money earn its 5% in the money market until the squall has passed.

-- Confusing the company with its stock.

There are some fine companies with mediocre stocks, and some mediocre companies with fine stocks. Try not to confuse the two. This is, at heart, a fundamental analysis versus technical analysis issue. Some stocks simply have excellent trading characteristics while others don't. Maybe it's a matter of liquidity, or a fanatical message board following, or a daytrading clientele, or whatever. Take Amazon.com for example. Is the company a good one? Who knows? Not me. But the stock is. I wouldn't want to have to hold it for 20 years, but I sure don't mind trading it a few days at a time, the "right" days. That sucker moves. Baby Bells are at the other end of the spectrum. Fine companies for the most part. Wouldn't mind owning one for 20 years. But you have to pick your spots when you go to trade them, because a measly 3 point move in a single session is huge for a Baby Bell. Also remember this: even the stock of a great company can go through a bad patch. IBM is a great company today, with its stock selling at 124, and it was a great company five years ago, when its stock was selling at 13.

-- Falling in love with a "story."

This is related to confusing the company with its stock. There are a lot of intriguing "stories" out there, but they don't always translate into instant riches. Iomega was such a "story" stock. The story was that the company's Zip drive was going to replace the floppy in the world's computers. The stock ran straight up to the sky to wait for the story to come true. And for the most part, IOM's story DID come true (many stories don't, witness the Y2K stocks), but the stock gave back most of its gains anyway. Turns out it wasn't that much of a story after all. In other cases, the story comes true but the stock you've bet on isn't the story teller. Witness the laser vision "story." A number of companies were hyped as the category killer, but only one, VISX, made its stockholders real money. And how about satellite communications? Great story, eh? Tell it to those who loaded up on Iridium's stock.

-- Following the leader.

Just as money tends to flow into last year's top mutual fund (sure to be next year's underachiever), people tend to chase the high flying momentum MO-MO stocks, succumbing to the buzz and getting in AFTER the stock has already jumped 80% and inevitably just before it drops 60% as the early buyers take their profits by selling their shares to the "greater fool," you. Yes, you can make a quick buck chasing momentum, but you can lose it even quicker. You can never be sure there's a greater fool coming in after you, and that could make you the "greatest fool."

-- Buying IPOs.

An astonishing number of people don't understand how IPOs work. YOU are not really buying an IPO when you buy the stock on the first day of public trading when it opens at $75. Those who REALLY bought the IPO were those who got their shares for $10, well before the public trading began. For the most part, only institutions or megamillionaire private investors have access to IPOs. There have been a few exceptions, but it's almost universally dumb to buy a hot IPO on its first day of public trading. As for those few times when the average investor IS offered shares in an IPO before public trading begins, my advice is to pass. My rule of thumb on IPOs is: If you want it, you can't get it, and if you can get it, you don't want it.

-- Finding the Holy Grail.

Technicians regularly fall into periods where they tend to favor one or two indicators over all others. No harm in that, so long as the favored indicators are working, and keep on working. But the analyst should always be aware of the fact that as market conditions change, so will the efficacy of their indicators. Indicators that work in one type of market may lead you badly astray in another. You have to be aware of what's working now and what's not, and be ready to shift when conditions shift. There is no Holy Grail indicator that works all the time and in all markets. If you think you've found it, get ready to lose money. Instead, take your trading signals from the "accumulation of evidence" among ALL of your indicators, not just one.

-- Overtrading.

The Picks Port commits this sin on a regular basis, but that's mostly because of the nature of the beast. I have to be more short term oriented than I'd prefer to be because you, my subscribers, tend to be more short term oriented than you probably should be. Daytrading, of course, is the epitome of overtrading. Most people just are not equipped, emotionally, intellectually, or mechanically, to day trade and statistics tell us that most are not successful at it. If you are not making money at daytrading but keep on doing it anyway, you should examine your motives. If it's the action you crave, take up skydiving. It's safer and cheaper.

-- Excessive tape watching.

I get a kick out of people who insist that they're intermediate or long term investors, buy a stock, then anxiously ask whether they should bail the first time the stocks drops a point or two. Likely as not, the panic was induced by watching the tape, or hearing some talking head on CNBC. Watching the ticker can be fun. It can be mesmerizing. But it can also be dangerous. It leads to emotionalism and to hasty decisions. Try not to make trading decisions when the market is in session. Do your analysis and make your plan when the market is closed and the White Noise of the television and the ticker is absent, then calmly execute your plan the following day. You have your stop and your target. So go take a nap, or go to the movies, or mow the lawn. The only time you should be scrutinizing the tape is when you're looking for an immediate entry or exit point for a trade. Otherwise, do your blood pressure a favor and tune out.

-- Being undercapitalized.

If you have less than $50,000 to invest, you'd probably be better off in a mutual fund rather than trading individual stocks. To get proper diversification with a fully invested exposure you need at least 10 stocks. You do the math.

-- Letting the tax tail wag the stock dog.

Don't let tax considerations dictate your decision on whether to sell a stock. Pay capital gains tax willingly, even joyfully. The only way to avoid paying taxes on a stock trade is to not make any money on the trade.

-- Relying on gurus.

I'm spitting in my own rice bowl here, but you should not be letting some self-appointed market "gooroo" dictate or dominate your trading decisions. The most you should expect, or accept, from folks like me are a few trading ideas, a little technical analysis tutoring, and a bit of guidance in maintaining a solid trading discipline. You should not think of a market letter (ANY market letter) as a substitute for a personally managed portfolio. No one knows or cares about your personal circumstances like you do; how much money you have to invest, your tolerance for pain, your goals, your most suitable and comfortable time frame, etc. And you should be doing everything in your power to make Nick's Picks unnecessary and irrelevant to your trading, to learn enough not to need the likes of me anymore. Read some books. Take some courses. Buy some decent charting software and arrange for a data feed.

-- Thinking this market stuff is easy.

Don't confuse genius with a bull market. It's not that hard make money in a roaring bull market. Keeping your gains when the bear comes prowling is the hard part. Don't get cocky, but don't grovel either. You're not as smart as you think you are when everything is going great. But you're not as dumb as you think you are when everything is going to hell either. The market whips all our ***** now and then. The whipping usually comes just when we think we've got it all figured out.

-- Thinking rather than looking.

One thing you should be thankful for is that you don't HAVE to come up with a reason for WHY the market is doing what it's doing. The talking heads on CNBC do because that's their job. I do too, because I know you expect it of me. But you don't. Just follow your chart work and let someone else do the pontificating. After all, who REALLY knows why stock ABC goes up 5 points on Monday while stock XYZ, in the same business, goes down 5 points? That's the great thing about technical analysis. You don't have to know. The price action is THE TRUTH. It's all you really need to know. Price doesn't lie. Price doesn't alibi. Price never complains and never explains. It is what it is. When XYZ goes up $5 on heavy volume, let Joe Hairdo on CNBC jabber on about what it all means. We KNOW what it means. It means XYZ went up $5 on heavy volume.

Pant...pant...pant.

These are just some of the mistakes traders make. There are lots more, but this has to end somewhere. These have been mostly generic in nature, applicable to fundamental investors as well as technical traders. One of these days I'll do another diatribe along these same lines, but confine it strictly to TA do's and don'ts. Until then, trade smart.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#6
THE PSYCHOLOGY​
majsis2002: I use every type of indicators, candles, MA's etc for analysis. But every time I want to simplify the thoughts or analysis. Do you know Sharlok Homes ? To investigate anything he use to do like that--

# Find out the probable facts.
# Cutting & leaving the facts with points.
# Do that continuously until he reaches only one facts.
# Then he declared that, "That's it, the story is ........."

I try be a man like Homes. But there is a problem. I have to be such a talented person to cut & leave the facts properly !!!!!!

SOUTHWIND: Oh! masis bhai you remind me of Sherlock Holmes and Dr.Watson, I read complete works of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle at my college age, gone are those golden days. I was so fan of detective, thriller and science fictions.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#7
THE PSYCHOLOGY​
POSTED BY SOUTHWIND

TOPS COLA - "Take our profit slowly and cut off losses at once"
The adage from Tushar Chande, I try to follow it.

There is no compromise about stoploss, I prefer 7% but recently I quit earlier than 7% and regrets later but enjoying Beximco group for strictly followinf 7% rule.
After taking position I give enough space ie 7% to breath if it dropped below 7%, I would not hesitate to quit and before taking position I always thought of position sizing and I take only 0.70% risk on my portfolio, whatever lucrative the scrip is I hardly break the rule.
Even I'm trying ATR stoploss instead of fixed initial stoploss.
Now if the trade goes in favor I follow 7% trailing stop first, if it is triggered I sell 1/2 or 1/3, like I did in Meghnalife yesterday and now if tomorrow it triggered ATR1.5, I'll sell rest portion or 1/3 and remaining 1/3 @ 2.5 ATR.
That's the simple method I following for a while now.
But for recent market volatility sometimes I took profit at resistance level or a tight ie 5% trailstop.
Yes it happens sometimes, after selling off it turn around, so what's the heck, market is dynamic, we took the logical decision on the moment, if situation change in future we will buy back. No regrets.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#8
ON THE WAY​
mrtq13:
We need to create,re-create some indicators,systems in this forum,for this forum members only............I am always good at creating new systems with new ideas. And we need to research on implementing new ideas into the system-which work and which don't work.........
We will share some paid AFLs in future in this forum(by the courtesy and generosity of SouthWind bhai. He bought them from net). Hopefully,that would upgrade and enhance our forum members' skill to a better level...........Some AFLs can bring huge changes to your trading. Believe me..............

andrewressel :
i agreed 100%... but before sharing a afl tht works well ... we need to find out people who r outsiders... I personally feel tht we need to put them out first... then share...

SpEcTrA:
Paid AFL !!!! great Southwind bhai.......

emuskova:
Omerta ... never works in online community

SOUTHWIND:
We need to be a Sicilian to keep the omerta but we won't go that far. We're not a mafia team, we are some good soul gathered here to trade with an unconventional style.
The paid afl does not have much value but a tiny afl in which I've spend days after days and hour after hour to develop is much more precious to me, but when you share that in an open forum, people will hardly appreciate
the value ..... it's the tragedy we are seeing all around.


SOUTHWIND:
Spectra Bhai, sure you will be disappointed .....already you have developed many nice system on your own.
But you could use the idea. Till now I do not use those AFLs but bought it for a very personal reason. I prefer to use my own systems .... bit by bit I have created my system which matched with my own style, with my temperament.
You have seen 'mrtq13' and Rafi Bhai using those special modified candles ..... those are the paid one! but I hardly use those candles, what a dumb I am because those candle does not fit with my style. ' mrtq13' basically a position trader but I'm price level trader, I always seek for best entry/exit point that's why I like normal HaikenAshi as the highs and lows remain unmodified ...... it's a matter of comfort level not as who is right or wrong.
Have patience Thanks

mrtq13:
'Southwind' you said it all in a nice and organised manner.
But one thing I must say,my friend. All of those gave me very different trading ideas and styles,and very new horizons to think and work. It looks like nothing is worthless in this world.
When Rafi bhai and I were working on those stuffs,Rafi bhai said that those were crap. I also felt like that.Interestingly,we never left those crap things.
To all,there were some stuffs that were shared among several guys even one year back. But they were kept among those persons. I think if one intends one can keep things secret.................It is just a matter of willingness.............


Mazhar :
I think like 'mrtq13'
we can keep secret anything.
actually when a request comes from a respected person, we can keep promise. deep feeling from core of our
hearts drives us to do so.


SOUTHWIND:
Well said Mazhar Bhai ....... it's depends own one's own commitment, own personality, promises will never ensure that.


signrc :
Ppl must have keep promise always, atleast I think. But some ppl don't do that.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#9
ON THE WAY​
mrtq13:
15 WAYS TO TRADE MOVING AVERAGES

Reading a chart without moving averages is like baking a cake without Butter or eggs. Those simple lines above or below current price tell Many tales and their uses in market interpretation are unparalleled.

Simply stated, they're the most valuable indicators in technical Analysis.

You can trade without moving averages, but you do so at your own risk.

After all, these lines represent median levels where your competition Will make important buying or selling decisions. So it makes sense to Predict what they're going to do before the fact, rather than afterward.

Here are 15 ways you can manage opportunity through moving Averages:

1. The 20-day moving average commonly marks the short-term trend, The 50-day moving average the intermediate trend, and the 200-day Moving average the long-term trend of the market.

2. These three settings represent natural boundaries for price Pullbacks. Two forces empower those averages: First, they define Levels where profit- and loss-taking should ebb following strong price Movement. Second, their common recognition draws a crowd that Perpetrates a self-fulfilling event whenever price approaches.

3. Moving averages generate false signals during range-bound markets Because they're trend-following indicators that measure upward or Downward momentum. They lose their power in any environment that Shows a slow rate of price change.

4. The characteristic of moving averages changes as they flatten and Roll over. The turn of an average toward horizontal signifies a loss of Momentum for that time frame. This increase the odds that price will Cross the average with relative ease. When a set of averages flat line And draw close to one another, price often swivels back and forth Across the axis in a noisy pattern.

5. Moving averages emit continuous signals because they're plotted Right on top of price. Their relative correlation with price development Changes with each bar. They also exhibit active convergence divergence Relationships with all other forms of support and resistance.

6. Use exponential moving averages, or EMAs, for longer time frames But shift down to simple moving averages, or SMAs, for shorter ones.EMAs apply more weight to recent price change, while SMAs view each Data point equally.

7. Short-term SMAs let traders spy on other market participants. The Public uses simple moving average settings because they don't Understand EMAs. Good intraday signals rely more on how the Competition thinks than the technicals of the moment.

8. Place five-, eight- and 13-bar SMAs on intraday charts to measure Short-term trend strength. In strong moves, the averages will line up And point in the same direction. But they flip over one at a time at highs And lows, until price finally surges through in the other direction.

9. Price location in relation to the 200-day moving average determines Long-term investor psychology. Bulls live above the 200-day moving Average, while bears live below it. Sellers eat up rallies below this line In the sand, while buyers come to the rescue above it.

10. When the 50-day moving average pierces the 200-day moving Average in either direction, it predicts a substantial shift in buying and Selling behavior. The 50-day moving average rising above the 200-day Moving average is called a Golden Cross, while the bearish piercing is Called a Death Cross.

11. It's harder for price to break above a declining moving average than A rising moving average. Conversely, it's harder for price to drop Through a rising moving average than a declining moving average.

12. Moving averages set to different time frames reveal trend velocity Through their relationships with each other. Measure this with a classic Moving Average-Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicator, or apply Multiple averages to your charts and watch how they spread or contract Over different time.

13. Place a 60-day volume moving average across green and red Volume histograms in the lower chart pane to identify when specific Sessions draw unexpected interest. The slope of the average also Identifies hidden buying and selling pressure.

14. Don't use long-term moving averages to make short-term Predictions because they force important data to lag current events. A Trend may already be mature and nearing its end by the time a specific Moving average issues a buy or sell signal.

15. Support and resistance mechanics develop between moving
Averages as they flip and roll. Look for one average to bounce on the Other average, rather than break through it immediately. After a Crossover finally takes place, that level becomes support or resistance For future price movement


SOUTHWIND:
Nice post.Thanks 'mrtq13' for enlighten us.
 

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