The 2% Ledger

[siddhant4u]

no update for some time ?

 

[sridhga]

no update for some time ?

Am busy with other projects. Not trading currently.

However, I noticed that Cupid has delivered the expected returns after I sold out in frustration. I must have missed out over Rs. 2000 in profits on an investment of Rs. 8000/-. As given in my earlier posts, I was chasing Cupid because it is a shining star category stock and I did not hold long enough. Luckily, I did not have to sell in loss.
I am by now very much convinced with this approach that I had taken in trading since October 19th, when this thread was started. Yes, I will continue to update this thread when I come back to trading. I expect that to happen soon.

 

[sridhga]

I would like to remember this. So, I am quoting on this thread

Trade small, trade less. Always use stop loss risking only small capital (1% ideal). Rest, grace is sufficient..
Things i learnt.

 

[sridhga]

When Nepal changed its constitution during 2015-16, there were blockades. Further, during the same year there was disruption due to a devastating earthquake. Unilever Nepal lost sales during that year.

This year's pandemic may have similar impact on HUL

Now HUL is quoting at Rs. 2154. PE is above 75.

 

[sridhga]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opin...us-has-lit-fuse-time-bomb-chinas-economy-debt

The above article discusses how China's debt problems may push it into recession due to the corona virus.

What would happen to India's NBFC and Bank bad debt problems?

If people lose employment won't NBFCs like Bajfinance and HDFC get into trouble? With banks like Indusind getting weaker, will it pull down our banking industry with it? I have invested in Life Insurance industry. Here, I found out that through the bonds the insurance companies bought as investments, Life Insurers have a huge exposure to bank and NBFC loans. When Yes bank was revived by SBI and others, its bond holders lost their investment.

 

[timepass]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opin...us-has-lit-fuse-time-bomb-chinas-economy-debt

The above article discusses how China's debt problems may push it into recession due to the corona virus.

What would happen to India's NBFC and Bank bad debt problems?

If people lose employment won't NBFCs like Bajfinance and HDFC get into trouble. With banks like Indusind getting weaker, will it pull down our banking industry with it? I have invested in Life Insurance industry. Here, I found out that through the bonds the insurance companies bought as investments, Life Insurers have a huge exposure to bank and NBFC loans. When Yes bank was revived by SBI and others, its bond holders lost their investment.

If China has recession, rest assured, the world will hear only about 1% of it. They will somehow manage to save face, centuries of experience.

 

[siddhant4u]

If China has recession, rest assured, the world will hear only about 1% of it. They will somehow manage to save face, centuries of experience.

Even if they hide their data, they cannot hide export information. For example many of big clothing retailers in UK are closed for last one month and have stopped picking stock from suppliers as well as cancelled future deliveries!

Needless to say 80% of these stock comes from China.

 

[sridhga]

Okay, reviving this thread. I cannot day-trade these days as I am involved in other projects. So, I will restart this experiment, as this model can accommodate part-time participation. I just started with little over Rs. 30K today. In the coming months, I plan to increase the investment in this model to over Rs. 30L as I become more comfortable with this model. I am more successful as an investor rather than as a trader. So it takes some time for me to get adjusted. This experiment in its previous version delivered 10% per month for two months before I abandoned it. I do not mean to say that it can be replicated. Still events like pandemic, election results worry me and hold me from committing more money to trading. One more change I will now make is to include some index options when indices are trending. I have strongly opposed usage of leverage in this thread. So this inclusion of options is a deviation. I need to see how this trading experiment progresses, hereon. I still have some worries on this issue. But we will cross the bridge as and when we get there. Trade book is attached.

 

[sridhga]

Yesterday's dip was an opportunity to add more to positions.

Added Tata Coffee, Tata Elxsi, MuthootFin and BDL
Also entered AxisBank, FRetail, GodrejProp and Timken.

Added more to this investment fund bringing it above 50K.


Some of these shares may bounce back today. If they fall, as per our original strategy, I will add more.

Our shining star category shares have to be redefined. Q1 results for most companies were bad as expected and hence improved quarterly performance requirement has to be temporarily dropped. Among the above companies AxisBank and FRetail do not belong to shining star category.

Cupid and BDL are falling after bad results. Will keep an eye on this. I may add more to BDL and enter Cupid as well. I expect them to bounceback soon.

Updated trade book is attached.

 

[Raj232]

Great.. Thanks for this thread @sridhga