The 2% Ledger

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#52
Bill Eckhardt words

"If you make a bad trade, you have money management, you have a whole bunch of things that will come to your aid, and you’re really not in so much trouble if you make a bad trade. But if you miss a good trade there’s really nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any regularity you’re finished, you’re doomed in this game"


I would like to ponder over this. In our shining star strategy, if we made a bad trade, money management will definitely limit the loss. We made an estimate of such a thing in post#30. But if we make a series of bad trades, then this will not work. We need to think about this. We already discussed on this subject referring to shark bite vs. eating alive by piranhas in post#34.


Now look at post# 48 by @moneymanager1980 . It exposes our weakness when markets are not doing well. Then we would be hit by piranhas. We need to really think about this to improve our shining star strategy discussed so far.
 
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#53
I would like to ponder over this. In our shining star strategy, if we made a bad trade, money management will definitely limit the loss. We made an estimate of such a thing in post#30. But if we make a series of bad trades, then this will not work. We need to think about this. We already discussed on this subject referring to shark bite vs. live eating by piranhas.


Now look at post# 48 by @moneymanager1980 . It exposes our weakness when markets are not doing well. Then we would be hit by piranhas. We need to really think about this to improve our shining star strategy discussed so far.
so first step is to have target 2% hit and SL 1 % hit ? is that work ? not sure ..
 
#54
Hello

Don't know the metrics of your system but
having a relatively small, fixed SL of say 1%
is sure way of breaking a good swing system . . .

With 1% stop we are restricting the maximum adverse excursion to just 1% . . .
If your target is 2%, having a initial stop of 1% does not automatically make it 1:2 RR . . .
It will happen only if your win/loss stays above 50%

You have to study the maximum adverse excursion for the winners/BE trades on your system
to define a good place for initial stops.


.
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#56
I think wave 5 is in progress in Cupid. If my assessment is correct, it should at least go up to 215 or has to go up to 235. Let us see how it goes. Cupid is shining star category trade and am currently holding 42 shares. If these targets are hit I will offload them
cupid 09-12.png
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#57
If my wave count is correct, then Ibulhsgfin will briefly consolidate itself before hitting another high.
View attachment 39136


I earlier stated that it is going to consolidate before hitting high. Since consolidation is wave 4, it is likely to be shorter than wave 2. This is for 2 reasons. Wave 2 was a long consolidation which is likely to make wave 4 a shorter one. Again, The stock cannot hit anything below 245 which happens to be wave 1 zone. So, it has to go up probably. Yesterday was a brief consolidation with high volumes. Now we are seeing upturn. I hope this is the beginning of wave 5. If this is true, it has to go up to 340. But there could be loss of momentum as well in the process. Let us see. I am looking for an exit in this scrip.
 
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sridhga

Well-Known Member
#59
Yesbank on the third leg of its bearish wave. It may go down to 45. View attachment 39154


Now Yesbank is quoting below 45 as predicted yesterday. We are still in wave 3. The management is trying to give comfort to the share holders as its MD is giving statements. Its 52 week low is at 29. It may even breach that before wave 5 ends. I am buying in small quantities.

I believe this bank has some franchise value and just for that some one would be interested in buying. It has good technology. It may also merge with a NBFC or another bank. It may not end up as a penny stock. Idea also has franchise value and is the second largest mobile operator. It is quoting at 6 and 7. It became a penny stock. But this bank cannot be compared to Idea. If Idea collapses, its customers will port to Jio or Airtel or BSNL in matter of hours. Banking is built on relationships. You cannot port your loan account to another bank. So I believe its franchise is certainly valuable for some investors. I am slowly buying these shares. I am not committing big part of my capital.
 
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#60
Now Yesbank is quoting below 45 as predicted yesterday. We are still in wave 3. The management is trying to give comfort to the share holders as its MD is giving statements. Its 52 week low is at 29. It may even breach that before wave 5 ends. I am buying in small quantities.

I believe this bank has some franchise value just for that some one would be interested in buying. It has good technology. It may also merge with a NBFC or another bank. It may not end up as a penny stock. Idea also has franchise value and is the second largest mobile operator. It is quoting at 6 and 7. It became a penny stock. But this bank cannot be compared to Idea. If Idea collapses, its customers will port to Jio or Airtel or BSNL in matter of hours. Banking is built on relationships. You cannot port your loan account to another bank. So I believe its franchise is certainly valuable for some investors. I am slowly buying these shares. I am not committing big part of my capital.
Hi Sridhar

I’m of the very similar opinion here - Buy it in small chunks at all major support levels. Have already taken one lot (Dec lot) equivalent. Will be slowly adding more as and when I see it at right levels.


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