The 2% Ledger

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#31
On Friday, 29th Nov,
exited Agrophos @ 133.92
exited corp bank @ 24.95
exited HDFCAMC @ 3653
added Seya
bought Ibulhsgfin @ 324,65 (More additions planned)
bought IDFCFirst 14 @ 46.91(More additions planned)
bought Yes Bank 16 @ 70.95(More additions planned)
bought GICRe 1 @ 259.4(More additions planned)
added Seya
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#32
In between recording our trades let us discuss some concepts of technical analysis and fundamental analysis as time permits



Now let us discuss dead cat bounce chart pattern.



There are two types of this patterns that I had observed analysts discussing. The first one is the bounce that occurs after a prolonged down turn where a stock bounces back briefly for some time and then finally collapses again very often below the previous low.



But Thomas Bulkowiski in his book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns” talks of another type of DCB which comes after events like surprise negative earnings or broker downgrade or FDA action on Drug companies. In his examples the event happens after the market hours and stock gaps down at open in the next trading session and closes lower at the end of day. It may go further lower by next day as well in some cases. Then the stock bounces back during the next few days and again takes a down turn and often ends lower than the previous low. He states that about half of DCBs close that gap formed on the first day with in 6 month period. He further states that some 75% of them decline below the pre-bounce low. He further states that one DCB follows another especially in a bear market. And another interesting snippet he provides: DCBs with large event losses tend to bounce higher but take longer to peak than events with small losses. Trading DCB is generally difficult. In this series of experiments, I have traded DCBs.
 
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sridhga

Well-Known Member
#34
Okay lets see what is working so far. Sticking to cash segment appears to be less lucrative at the first instance, but over a period it is reasonably profitable. It is also more forgiving in case we made any mistakes. It also lets us take staggered entries and helps in trade management.

But I do not think it interests most traders since leverage is not there.

If this experiment goes well for some time, I may stop all other trading and just focus on this model. I realised that leverage is like steroids and is a double edged sword. I was a heavy coffee drinker several years ago. Once I was carrying to work XL sized coffee from Dunkin Donuts store. My colleague asked me as to why I was drinking coffee of that measure. I told him that its because the store does not sell 2X. Today, that answer sounds stupid to me.
But I suddenly gave up coffee since, I took a deeksha in Saraswati Temple in Basar Village near Hyderabad.

Giving up leverage in trades is similarly relieving. If I am confident that this model succeeds, I will move more capital into this. But here, I need to look at more charts, more daily data and handle more trades.

Alexander Elder in his book "Come into my trading room" states that you can get bitten off by a big shark or you can get eaten up live by a bunch of piranhas in trading. (You can get hit by a large loss or you can get eaten by several small losses)

In this trading model, sharks got eliminated, but need to guard against piranhas. That consumes more time for more research and more data collection. Sometimes, I am exiting with very less profit. All this takes lot of time to study and implement.

So far we are doing good.

Today I exited Polycab with very less profit. and added more of GICRe, Ibulhsgfin and Yesbank.

I hope I will get an opportunity to exit in Berger paints tomorrow. I already placed a GTT order for a target of 509. My multi step acquisition cost is 492.1. This share belongs to the category of shining stars, that I described in Post#30. With such shares, one can be at peace and carry less stress for overnight. I am also looking at Timken India for entry. But today the share has gone up and I have not touched it. I am waiting for a dip. It is another shining star category trade.


Before, I started this trading style, I requested @Smart_trade for some shares that would help me trade in cash segment. He did advise me to look into Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints etc. Coincidentally, later I realised that those shares fit into the shining star criteria that I had given here in post# 30. I am thankful to him for that advise which helped me to take this journey in this direction.
 
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sridhga

Well-Known Member
#35
I was checking the fundamentals of some companies last night. And, I noticed some thing here: Look at these two companies Hind Rectifiers (Hirect) and Pricol. Both are well managed fantastic companies and strong in their businesses. However, Pricol has reported negative earnings and Hirect tripled its quarterly profit. I was trying to understand the cause for such divergence. Pricol is facing the automobile industry which in turn is consumer facing. Hirect is a supplier for electrical equipment, which is broadly driven by the government expenditure and electrical expansion. This shows consumer demand crashed but the government is spending. The three drivers of the economy are consumer demand, government spend and exports. A large part of Indian automobile industry is export oriented. Currently, the export engine and consumer engines have stopped working. Our economy is just flying on just one engine viz. government spend. The government must do something to trigger demand. Failing banks and NBFCs are not helping either.
Another company, I studied was Timken India. This company is also doing well in the slowdown. This company makes industrial products and automobile sector is just a part of its business.
 
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sridhga

Well-Known Member
#36
Few days ago a company by name Orissa Mineral Development Company started making 52 week highs frequently. To understand the company and download the financials, I checked the website. The website is such a mess and is clueless. I understood that it is a subsidiary of Rastriya Ispat Nigam (Vizag Steel). I found some financial data relating to 2013 on its website. However, I got some information on Moneycontrol website. This company is losing money at the rate of Rs. 50 per share per quarter. That is because it has no business on hand and uses fixed deposit interest income to pay employee salaries which is the highest cost. Other expenses are eating up the capital. As per the director's report of 31-03-2018, the net worth of the company is Rs. 586.98 crores and on 60 lakh equity shares, net worth per share works out to Rs. 978.30 There are contingent liabilities in the form of dispute with Orissa government amounting to Rs. 1533 crores. Coal ministry allocated some mining rights in Brahmani mining fields which the company is yet to explore.

The share is now quoting around Rs. 1300.

I really do not know who is buying this share and why it is going up. Completely clueless.
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#37
Ingerrand which is in air compressor business has managed to tide over the slow down with marginal reduction in sales YOY, but profit is marginally up. It paid an interim dividend of Rs. 3 with a record date of 21st Nov. On 20th Nov. the share closed up by 5% just for the tax free dividend. It has been going down since. The share generally presents a wave pattern on the chart. Helpful for positional traders.
 
#38
Ingerrand which is in air compressor business has managed to tide over the slow down with marginal reduction in sales YOY, but profit is marginally up. It paid an interim dividend of Rs. 3 with a record date of 21st Nov. On 20th Nov. the share closed up by 5% just for the tax free dividend. It has been going down since. The share generally presents a wave pattern on the chart. Helpful for positional traders.
Regret ignoring this thread purely for it's name, thought some kind of a personal trading diary.
But you are pumping in here a jet of most relevant n useful info & analysis.
Anyways aal eej well now as added thread to watch list.
Thanks n Regards
Best.
 

siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member
#39
Few days ago a company by name Orissa Mineral Development Company started making 52 week highs frequently. To understand the company and download the financials, I checked the website. The website is such a mess and is clueless. I understood that it is a subsidiary of Rastriya Ispat Nigam (Vizag Steel). I found some financial data relating to 2013 on its website. However, I got some information on Moneycontrol website. This company is losing money at the rate of Rs. 50 per share per quarter. That is because it has no business on hand and uses fixed deposit interest income to pay employee salaries which is the highest cost. Other expenses are eating up the capital. As per the director's report of 31-03-2018, the net worth of the company is Rs. 586.98 crores and on 60 lakh equity shares, net worth per share works out to Rs. 978.30 There are contingent liabilities in the form of dispute with Orissa government amounting to Rs. 1533 crores. Coal ministry allocated some mining rights in Brahmani mining fields which the company is yet to explore.

The share is now quoting around Rs. 1300.

I really do not know who is buying this share and why it is going up. Completely clueless.
this is why India doesn't have true coffee can investment. Many "blue chip" bites dust within 10 years if real stock market crash comes. Technical chart is only way to trade on Indian markets.
 

siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member
#40
Few days ago a company by name Orissa Mineral Development Company started making 52 week highs frequently. To understand the company and download the financials, I checked the website. The website is such a mess and is clueless. I understood that it is a subsidiary of Rastriya Ispat Nigam (Vizag Steel). I found some financial data relating to 2013 on its website. However, I got some information on Moneycontrol website. This company is losing money at the rate of Rs. 50 per share per quarter. That is because it has no business on hand and uses fixed deposit interest income to pay employee salaries which is the highest cost. Other expenses are eating up the capital. As per the director's report of 31-03-2018, the net worth of the company is Rs. 586.98 crores and on 60 lakh equity shares, net worth per share works out to Rs. 978.30 There are contingent liabilities in the form of dispute with Orissa government amounting to Rs. 1533 crores. Coal ministry allocated some mining rights in Brahmani mining fields which the company is yet to explore.

The share is now quoting around Rs. 1300.

I really do not know who is buying this share and why it is going up. Completely clueless.
did little digging..

Visakhapatnam, Nov 9 (UNI) Union Minister of Steel, Dharmendra Pradhan on Saturday said that his Ministry will try to supply raw material at special price to Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd (RINL), the Corporate entity of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP), from OMDC (Orissa Mineral Development Company) for benefit of RINL.
and from AGM... reason for no sales for so many years is due to their mining licenses not begin renewed... Looks like someone didn't want to give any business to this govt company..

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edit: News article was from 9th Nov... so clearly someone knew it was going to be announced in few weeks time..


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