Systematic Momentum and Pullback Swing Trading

[spn1305]

Jesus. R Systems is up 15%. And we just sold half yesterday
No regrets, we did what we had to. Besides, we do capture half the upside!
Sold Marico @ 334. Summary of trades in Marico:

26/5: Bought @322
28/5: Sold half @334
29/5: Sold the rest @320.25
29/5: Re-entry @334
29/5: Sold half @346
2/6: Sold rest @334

We got chopped on 29/5, otherwise would've been a neat gain. Made 1R net.

-Smeet

 

[spn1305]

Summary of trades today:
In SHIB, Sold half position in Ramco Cements @632.7. Had bought @586. Trailing stop moved to BE.
Power Grid turned out to be a quick good trade after all, bought @158.7, and had a small SL of 155.75, sold half @161.65 and the rest @164.6
Sold the other half of HCL Tech at BE.

In 12MA weekly, Amber Enterprises reached our first target. Had bought @1225, sold half @1395 and moved stop to BE. Adjusted stops for some other positions in SHIB and 12MA.

No new names in the watchlist.

Cheers,
-Smeet

 

[spn1305]

I just realized that while I had added Berger paints to our 12MA watchlist, I must've forgotten to set an alert for it and hence missed the trade completely. Feeling quite bad about it, not because it turned out to be profitable, but because such mistakes over time can erode away our edge. A good rule of thumb is to try and keep mistakes at less than 5% of your trades.

Anyways, in SHIB, we had Muthoot reach our first target of 933.8, and we bought UPL @429.35. I'm not fully confident of the trade, and with a stop as wide as 11%, I'd like to keep it a 1R trade. Hit or miss. I'll be watching UPL closely tomorrow to decide if I want to trail my stop to 402, instead of our current stop of 381.

In the 12MA weekly, we had no new trades. But some stop adjustments took place as we had Amber inching close to our second target and Relaxo close to our first. I'll be watching MCX closely to decide if I want to trail the stop to 1240, instead of our current trailing stop of 1185.

-Smeet

 

[spn1305]

04/06/2020:

In SHIB, Re-entered HCL Tech @573.4, with a SL of 554. No trades apart from that. Ramco and Muthoot didn't do well, but no adjustment to our trailing stops on those today. Aurobindo, UPL, and HCL held up, though we're currently at a small loss on UPL overall (bought @429.35, CMP 423). Adding Container Corp and JSW Steel to the watchlist. What do you think of cyclicals in the current market scenario?

In the 12MA weekly, we sold R Systems @101, clearing our position. Unfortunately, we could net only about 0.5R since we had to sell half a position at close to BE to buy Pidilite. Thus, summary of trades in R Systems: Bought @92, sold half @93.45, the rest @101. Also sold half our position in Relaxo footwears @780 (had bought @680). Holding the rest with trailing stop at BE.

I have a feeling Reliance is going to get triggered in SHIB tomorrow, and I'll be taking the trade if it does. Though I have to admit the sentiment in Reliance feels sort of euphoric (top like behavior). Going by classical technical analysis, there is a probability that it forms a double top. It doesn't help that it's a heavy weight of the index, and I haven't been confident of the rally in Nifty since April. However, like I said, I'll most likely be taking the trade. If I went by sentiment alone, I wouldn't have taken any trades at all and would've missed out on the profits that were made.

-Smeet

 

[nimitnnshah]

That's true, you can trade in lines with your emotions. Great trade on Relaxo footwear, almost a 15% gain. Tomorrow is going to be exciting, with DJIA nearing its Feb 20 levels, at the same time India seems to be worried about the rising cases, but the Indian markets are also following the global markets, let's hope the sentiment for tomorrow is positive as well. Keep us updated if you take on the Mothersumi or TVS trade tomorrow! Good luck.

 

[spn1305]

Was busy over the weekend hence didn't update here, here's a quick summary:

05/06/2020:
SHIB: Entered Reliance @1600, Lupin @919.2, Container Corp @413, JSW Steel @199.4. Positions in the latter two were taken at 3/4th of our usual risk, due to margin constraints.

12MA: Sold Poly Medicure @279, close to BE, our entry was @286.
No new entries to the watchlist in any.

08/06/2020:
SHIB: Sold rest of the position in Aurobindo @736 due to our trailing stop being hit. Summary: Bought @681, sold half @732, other half @736. Trailing stop hit on Ramco and cleared rest position @620. Summary: Bought @586, sold half @633, rest @620. Adding Godrej Properties and Torrent Pharma to the watchlist.

12MA: MCX trailing stop hit @1201. Summary: Bought @1172, sold half @1324, rest @1201. Got a chance to enter Berger Paints @499.

 

[spn1305]

That's true, you can trade in lines with your emotions. Great trade on Relaxo footwear, almost a 15% gain. Tomorrow is going to be exciting, with DJIA nearing its Feb 20 levels, at the same time India seems to be worried about the rising cases, but the Indian markets are also following the global markets, let's hope the sentiment for tomorrow is positive as well. Keep us updated if you take on the Mothersumi or TVS trade tomorrow! Good luck.

@nimitnnshah I prefer not to trade in lines with my emotions. However, I do adjust stops accordingly, in a logical and repeatable manner. Relaxo was showing great momentum but did very poorly on Friday and today. Like I had mentioned on Thursday, it feels like some top like behavior is in play, so I wasn't very positive about the market, but we have our positions nevertheless. I didn't add Motherson or TVS because I'm not comfortable with exposure to autos at this point, as mentioned earlier. However, you could keep track of it. Did you take those trades, btw?

The important thing to watch is whether the market is going through a sector rotation or is just trying to take a breather and shake out the weak hands. Only time will tell. I'm comfortable with how we're positioned. Thank you for your views.

Cheers,
Smeet.

 

[nimitnnshah]

Hey Smeet, just figured my typo above, I mean you "can't" trade in lines with your emotions. Just like you, I'm skeptical about auto at this point in time, but at the same time, I'm low-key excited. I'm looking for an entry sooner or later. The way the markets have been yesterday and today, I feel there's something in the waiting.

I'm tracking exide industries in the auto space.

 

[spn1305]

09/06/2020:

SHIB: SL hit on JSW Steel. Bought @199.4 sold @190.35. Bought Torrent Pharma @2407.5 with SL of 2302.
12MA: Trailing stop on Relaxo @680. Summary: Bought @680, sold half @780, rest @680. Quite a bad day for us.

10/06/2020:

SHIB: Great recovery. Mainly led by Muthoot, Lupin, and Torrent Pharma. No trades, adjusted stops.
12MA: No new trades. Granules almost reached 2nd target. Adjusted stops on Granules and Berger Paints.

-Smeet

 

[spn1305]

Hey Smeet, just figured my typo above, I mean you "can't" trade in lines with your emotions. Just like you, I'm skeptical about auto at this point in time, but at the same time, I'm low-key excited. I'm looking for an entry sooner or later. The way the markets have been yesterday and today, I feel there's something in the waiting.

I'm tracking exide industries in the auto space.

@nimitnnshah , interesting. what exactly about the past couple of days did you find interesting in autos? Was speaking to a senior earlier yesterday, he's quite bullish on the auto recovery theme too. I don't track Exide a lot, but seems to be a decent long term bet.