Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[prst]

Had purchased SBIN at 1800 a few months ago. I saw the price to be great and the Bank was well founded. However, I misjudged the impact of NPAs on the Share price and the estimate of NPA%.

I now believe the PSU banks have tremendous amount of correction left in them. The NPA% are growing. It is much more than what is published. Banks are rationing it on the balance sheet so as to not cause a nationwide panic. Hence, have exited SBIN as it was opportune.

Hi sir,
Thanks for the nice thread.
Do u follow any stop loss ? If so , wat percentage ?

 

[jamit_05]

Hi sir,
Thanks for the nice thread.
Do u follow any stop loss ? If so , wat percentage ?

No stop loss in the traditional sense. However, if i see that the company is becoming something i would not invest in then i will seek to get out, like i did in SBIN.

 

[jamit_05]

Precious Metals.

It is an ongoing challenge to manage ones money; primarily ensure capital protectin and then grow it by 20% every year. It is a tough job, as there aren't many avenues and most are unpredictable. But, this one investment is safe and promises steady growth: To invest in precious metals.

One can take a value-investment approach and buy, Gold and Silver, when they sharply correct.

Gold Corrected sharply last year and ended the fall in June at around 2400 (HDFCGOLD ETF) and rallied back up to 3150. Therefore, one could invest near 2400 levels and hold.

Currently, gold is falling mainly due to the fall in USD/INR. This dynamic will be in place as long as the stock market is rising, which will end as voting gets over.

So, I will be buying gold the day it makes a sharp fall, like it did on Apr 15 2013, or near 2450.

 

[jamit_05]

Is this a good time to buy stocks?

Last one months highest gainers are as follows:

PNB 36%
IDFC 33.5$
BoB 33%
Indusind 26%
DLF 25%
Hindalco 24%
SBI 24%
ACC 23%

Talking fundamentally, these are all underperformers. There has not been a turnaround in their numbers that support 25% rise in share price. It is very likely for them to post a bad quarterly result, which will shave off this gain.

The downfall from rally fuelled by ill-founded high expectations is usually very sharp.

 

[akgandhi]

can we add Bajaj Hindustan ?

 

[jamit_05]

can we add Bajaj Hindustan ?

Its a sugar stock. Wrought by popularist policies, the stocks of this industry are unstable and unpredictable. It won't add joy to ones life.

There are much better stock out there.

 

[akgandhi]

There are much better stock out there.

which are the better stocks out there ?

 

[jamit_05]

which are the better stocks out there ?

Sir, before one starts to pick stocks, he will have to know what he really wants out of his portfolio.

For ex. :
I want stocks which i can hold for a very long term, so that i do not have to attract transaction expense and get a tax free return on invested capital. Plus, I want my stocks to have a high floating capital and also provide a moderate pace of growth in EPS. This would help me short list stocks like Infy, Cipla, HuL etc...

Whereas, you could want your portfolio to grow at a scorching speed and select high growth stocks, which double every year.

So, first narrow your requirement then select portfolio.

 

[jamit_05]

My charts and its database is corrupted so i cannot post icharts right now but on monthly chart of reliance we can see that reliance latest monthly candle is biggest in last 3- 4 years already which tells us that the momentum is so strong that in last month itself the range has expanded too fast with good momentum so i am 100 percent sure the bull market in reliance is back with a bang

Or it could be exhaustion...

Often, when a strong price action does not have a proportionate follow-up means that the demand has dried up... this scares the ones who participated blindly in the momentum... they run for exits... this leads to a even sharper move on the downside... from which many stocks do not recover for several months.

such in the dual nature of candlestick patterns...

 

[jamit_05]

Well every chart analyst has the different perception about charts and styles are different i agree but the way i see charts i can see that it has bottomed out already has been in the big and still tight trading range of 220 rs which is resistances 955, is very close to resistance now so i am sure that this time it's gonna break out

I hv not formed a view on Reliance. But, generally speaking, I do not think that India has improved its fundamentals.

When the fundamentals improve, the Capital Goods and metal industry starts doing well. Till their balance sheets improve I won't believe any news or magazine or govt's bullish views.

I think there is a good amount of pain left to be seen, loads of blood yet to be shed, till the market sees a real all time high.

Current euphoria is just a part of election campaign. Does it not make you suspicious that indices should touch all time high when voting is about to begin? (of course, poor fundamentals gives away the real story)