Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

[jshah9]

What worries me is the adjective "heavily".

If I were in your spot, which is a tricky one to be in, I'd employ a damage-control strategy.

Hi Jamit-
what would be the damage control strategy? wait for absolute rock bottom and avg out then to bring purchase price down? I am prepared to wait 10-15 years as I think these are good companies and should be around atleast for another decade....please advise...

 

[jamit_05]

Great Conversations All.

As of Now BHEL down 15% !!! Imaging what will happen in Nifty loses 10% more !!


For stocks that are:

1) PSE AND
2) Sector in a downtrend

Rock bottom is inevitable!! Be patient. Get only the best price for your hard earned money.

 

[jamit_05]

Hi Jamit-
what would be the damage control strategy? wait for absolute rock bottom and avg out then to bring purchase price down? I am prepared to wait 10-15 years as I think these are good companies and should be around atleast for another decade....please advise...

Well, it is a tough one to answer. But, if I were in your positions, I'd look at the chart and exit at resistances.

For ex. I am pretty sure that Sail's share price won't see a turnaround any time soon. So, Rs.100 and Rs.75 are formidable resistances. I'd come up with a strategy to sell at these levels.

But, these things are tough to execute. It is best to not put oneself in such situations to begin with.

 

[jamit_05]

Thanks for the Clarification

Guess Nifty low was around 4650 - 2011 lows, do we have to wait - morover will Nifty touch that low

Nifty's 2011 Lows was 4531; It will easily be met. In fact, even 4000 is well within reach. Beyond that I have not planned any investment. If sub-4000 levels happen and if I have any fresh source of cash then I will invest more in the scrips I have chosen. As each scrip of choice is a leader in its sector and is well equipped to capture any future growth. None is frivolous.

So we will wait for the consolidation of the stocks in downtrend

Either rock bottom, for eg. Sail Rs.9 OR consolidation.

Your views on KFA @ 3.8/- . Is it a buy or not - as everyone knows the condition of KFA. However, was struck up with the same situation wrt Satyam which was trading @ 8/- . Thought of buying around 5000 shares, however, backed out............now you can see the price.

My thought process is that the work you do should give you joy, security and mental peace. Buying stocks like KFA will only give a headache. And imagine if you have 10 such stocks in your portfolio! Life will be hell.

KFA, OptoCircuit, WockHardt they all have potential, but they have crossed the line. It worries me to buy them. Buying them will be a gamble, but buying likes of BHEL, NMDC at rock bottom is a good investment.

 

[jamit_05]

What happened in Thai and other tiger economies was pegging of $. They werre artifically holding up currency by using up their forex to peg it to Thai Baht and then the banks went bust doing this.. hope RBI does not use up its reserves doing this futile exercise... instead concentrate on exports as we will be competitive with a weak rupee.. rest leave to markets.
But about stocks.. there is a philosophy called long only funds who invest in emerging markets.. so these funds dont necessarily liquidate their holdings on a dime... and as India is still a relatively safe bet for them to have exposure in emerging markets, downside will be limited. Which other country even has a projected growth of more than 7% in todays days? But investing in Stocks is altogether another ball game.. you never know the honesty of these companies... instead investing in index funds for the long term should ideally be the mantra... there is more chancec of picking lemons in these markets than hidden gems

FIIs rushed out of Thai and South Korea for similar reasons as seen in India now. We too are a victim of Crony Capitalism like they were.

When going was good, the Govs did not make the provisions. And when tides have turn they are helpless and must make evasive maneuvers.

And when the ministry panic's they take regretable decisions, which is what they have been doing for the past year.

Posco left Orissa, Laksmi Mittal too, Walmart, Buffet.... list is long...
Coal India has reserves of Coal...yet India is importing coal.. Talk about CAD!
All examples of mismanagement.

The situation is very bad right now. Once the Elections get over in 2014, we will see the true state of affairs!

Of course, India is likely to recover because we have a huge consumer base. But, we will see a sharp spike.

 

[aj4567]

Jamot, Many investors say that NHPC is the share to buy for the long term, but the share has been falling down continuesly.. What is your say on NHPC. Would u recommend holding that for 10yrs+

 

[jamit_05]

Jamot, Many investors say that NHPC is the share to buy for the long term, but the share has been falling down continuesly.. What is your say on NHPC. Would u recommend holding that for 10yrs+

I have not come across anything interesting about NHPC. It is not a large company.

The problem with holding for a very long time like 10 years is that when the sector is looking bright the company in question should not be left out.

For ex. the pharma sector is doing moderately well now... but Biocon got left out!

Therefore, ones selection of the companies should be such that it should be well positioned to capture the uptrend.

 

[jamit_05]

One very nice company, an old horse. Good balance sheet and a clean record thus far.

Siemens

Currently in a strong downtrend. But is still fairly expensive.

 

[victory]

Hi Jamit,

Will make a note of all the stocks that you will be mentioning..........will keep a close watch on the same..............for consolidation or good price.......Please keep on shooting the scripts as and when you find time.........

Thanks

 

[dineshN]

Hi Amit

I'd asked you about Emami ltd. Do you have any views on it to hold or sell?

I'm having stock holdings since 2006-7. All of them have taken a beating from 2008 crash. I am looking forward to exit most of the stocks and follow the strategy that is mention here, buying at 2011 lows, or even lower. Averaging never helped!