Stocks for Investment in 2014 for medium term 1-3 years

[Smart_trade]

Dear Smart_Trade,

I have made a few investments in the past one year every month mostly in Midcap / Small cap companies.
My portfolio is up 25% today.

I have seen that CNX MIDCAP PE has reached 25, its higher range is 26.
Nifty PE is around 24 with high range of 27.

Everything is going fine but I am in a dilemma whether I should sell and wait for lower levels to buy. The PE levels are making me nervous.

OR Whether I should follow that afl that you provided (Yellow arrow, Green Arrow, sequential) and act as per this long term strategy.

I clearly remember you had posted that 13 bar count is done when nifty was at 9200 and it promptly fell from there. Likewise, you also indicated the 13 bar count completion when nifty was at 7800 and it rose from there.

If I had acted at these levels then my portfolio would have been up by around 35%. I didnt exit at 9200 and I didnt buy more at 7800.

How are you dealing with your long term portfolio? Are you taking an action at 13th bar etc?

Your reply will be really helpful.

Regards,
ptk

We are in a longer term bull market which I expect to last for next 3-5 years. But the bull markets give intermittant corrections and those swing we try to catch with swing trades.

Though I am bullish for next 3-5 years, in short term there are headwinds like international events particularly Fed rate hike and fate of various bills pending in the Parliament will make market to correct. So if you can sell at higher prices and buy near 8000-8100 then very good ...else stay invested. The corporate performance and economic growth will be slow to pick up for next 2 quarters but after that the markets will gather steam.I do not think we are in bubble territory which we will get into at the final end of the bull market where the prices will fly high irrespective of the fundamentals....we are nowhere there yet.

The above said, Sequential is a good method to catch intermediate trends in the market .

Smart_trade

 

[ptk]

We are in a longer term bull market which I expect to last for next 3-5 years. But the bull markets give intermittant corrections and those swing we try to catch with swing trades.

Though I am bullish for next 3-5 years, in short term there are headwinds like international events particularly Fed rate hike and fate of various bills pending in the Parliament will make market to correct. So if you can sell at higher prices and buy near 8000-8100 then very good ...else stay invested. The corporate performance and economic growth will be slow to pick up for next 2 quarters but after that the markets will gather steam.I do not think we are in bubble territory which we will get into at the final end of the bull market where the prices will fly high irrespective of the fundamentals....we are nowhere there yet.

The above said, Sequential is a good method to catch intermediate trends in the market .

Smart_trade

Dear Smart_Trade,

Thank you so much for your views. It has really helped. I rteally appreciate the same.

Regards,
Ptk

 

[timepass]

ST, thanks for this thread. It would be to include stocks as well as MFs in this thread.

 

[Sunnyraj]

The above said, Sequential is a good method to catch intermediate trends in the market .

Smart_trade

ST sir, can you please share the link to the thread of this "Sequential" strategy.

 

[Smart_trade]

Search for Thomas DeMark sequential System in our forum and also elsewhere on the internet.

Smart_trade

 

[Smart_trade]

http://www.motilaloswalmf.com/products/next-trillion-dollar-opportunity

The above is a Portfolio of Next Trillion Dollars Strategy by Motilal Oswal.This strategy has already given 47% CAGR in last 3 years period which is fantastic return.

Observe the high performer stocks held in the portfolio. Very focussed portfolio with just 17-18 stocks.

Smart_trade

 

[ptk]

We are in a longer term bull market which I expect to last for next 3-5 years. But the bull markets give intermittant corrections and those swing we try to catch with swing trades.

Though I am bullish for next 3-5 years, in short term there are headwinds like international events particularly Fed rate hike and fate of various bills pending in the Parliament will make market to correct. So if you can sell at higher prices and buy near 8000-8100 then very good ...else stay invested. The corporate performance and economic growth will be slow to pick up for next 2 quarters but after that the markets will gather steam.I do not think we are in bubble territory which we will get into at the final end of the bull market where the prices will fly high irrespective of the fundamentals....we are nowhere there yet.

The above said, Sequential is a good method to catch intermediate trends in the market .

Smart_trade

Dear Smart_Trade,

I have sold my entire portfolio and I will be waiting to re-enter at lower levels.

I have some questions:-
1. There is a 1% exit load on MFs. I am not selling my MFs within a year due to this reason. But if I have to do a buy sell of the entire portfolio say twice a year, how to manage it with MFs or are stocks the only option?
2. We all know that if we buy or sell a MF before 3 pm, we get the NAV that we see on our screen which is kind of printed yesterday. So suppose sensex gets a lower circuit of 10% today, if will reflect on the NAV of the MF after 3 pm. So, If I have a large portfolio, can I be saved from this 10% loss if I sell before 3 pm and then can I buy after 3 pm to get at a 10% lower cost?

Regards,
ptk

 

[veeracar]

Is it the right time to buy MNC stocks .if so which are the best picks?

 

[trade4putuval]

Is it the right time to buy MNC stocks .if so which are the best picks?

This is not a tip-generating forum. Don't do something that can ban the owner of this thread. This is a trade learning forum. If you are not interested in learning, then you should stop visiting this forum.

 

[trade4putuval]

Dear Smart_Trade,

I have sold my entire portfolio and I will be waiting to re-enter at lower levels.

I have some questions:-
1. There is a 1% exit load on MFs. I am not selling my MFs within a year due to this reason. But if I have to do a buy sell of the entire portfolio say twice a year, how to manage it with MFs or are stocks the only option?
2. We all know that if we buy or sell a MF before 3 pm, we get the NAV that we see on our screen which is kind of printed yesterday. So suppose sensex gets a lower circuit of 10% today, if will reflect on the NAV of the MF after 3 pm. So, If I have a large portfolio, can I be saved from this 10% loss if I sell before 3 pm and then can I buy after 3 pm to get at a 10% lower cost?

Regards,
ptk

Dude, you are timing the market. Even the great legendary investor, Warren Buffet did not succeed in finding the bottom, what do you expect to do yourself!

If you trade in a market, you are bound to lose some points here and there. Same goes for the Mutual fund, else you need a data feed that can tell you when sensex is going to tank or break out of the roof.

Besides, if you are in the market to make money, think about making the money, and leave the taxes to the end of the year. If you think about taxes while transacting, then you will make lot more mistakes and losses than what the MF could have given you, had you left it for long term.

I am already an SIP investor in Mutual funds, and I do not look at the NAV every day or every month. Mutual funds are for long term, so it is better to keep it that way. But I do one thing. When the market has gone a long way up, then I partially withdraw the points from the mutual fund. This is then ploughed back into the SIP account, so that the SIP keeps going with the generated profit instead of my salary account.