start of a equity trader in indian market

[peru]

normally norms of 4quarter result.....help me to understand with fluctuation in 55ema..
particularly on result week.....expectation vs..realisation .....reflection of them on price...i find a main strength in stock trading.
yes i believe in news trading ...as it gives me money....i dont teach it as its too much subjective......still i provide 2hints[basically money making oppurtunity i am supposed to give ]
all knows bell weather info result ....given good .....then price is not reacting properly....
so dont put much money in this sector
...if infy good/tcs good...also price moving up....buy immediate 2nd grade polaris / gtl...a short term low risk speculation style.
.........another case i mention....order book......recent publish[may be some month back..@220-230 zone psl is getting good order.......from oilcompanies for pipeline.....which definitely improve bottomline..stock at nearly yr high.......so buy ...at at near top..by understanding new accumulation is going on ......u have to take entry to make money.
....if u watch minutely with volume spread/order flow/ money flow technique...[any one is sufficient]...u shall see price upwards bias was shown then...220- 230....psl.
............................................
why i can not be a pure technical trader...?
because...fundamental value of a stock ...i believe is always reflected in price...
but if something hidden..........that gives me a low risk trade to earn money
.......by missing lot of oppurtunity...making mistake on regular basis av 8-10 every yr...
i can say definitely the 'value'..is dynamic....never use concept of eyes of beholder'...that is fundamental reason of my wrong trade.
....what is value...in simple term...the reflected marketsentiment...+ business model with company profitability as shown in price...which normally oscilate in a band.
...here i put a simple model ....say price fluctuation within..+/- 2.5% is random
crossing 3% above..>5%..definitely a trend......that is biasness towards a direction which can be traded profitably.
.......................
trend factor..random factor..newsflow[new event].....definitely coexist in market
..........depending upon u as market observer...consider which one is oppurtunity for u
...and when and risk....not suit u........so avoid
.............................
smaller timeframe u trade u have to be more mechanical.......
larger timeframe[at least 3month view]...improve accuracy[directional bias]
..............................
without trade management never trade.......otherwise u enjoy thrill on market..paying money
....winner trade..allow more time to run.
............with uncertainity watch.........never trade on call[ u can use call to find candidate..to save time...but due diligence must]
......analise past trade

Interesting thread.

 

[oilman5]

thanks all esteemed readers,
for choosing me a reputed writer.
so its my duty offer some analysis.
recently ....15300.....bse dont fall.....tv news suggest sell.......but market dont react.....it shows a tremendous strength on market......so easily it reaches 17000.
yes i play with 7digit fig.......and derisk @165oo......80%sitting on cash.
......
why i play on oil.......known to me......a laggard last 6month.....not now
ongc/bpcl/mrpl/eil......i know .....their movement style.....and good fundamental not yet reflected in price......so is profit potential
so 820...ongc/315...bpcl/43...mrpl/470...eil
.....yes i consider lucky.....though logically oilprice has its +impact hidden to them.
......now u see bharat forge....its forming a upbias....like arvind mill....10 days back..watch it.
..................
for trade learner........www.ebay.com......selling onlinetradingacademy pro course only 120$
grab it.....to become a pro
just search @ebay.........stock trading.....u shall get best
btw....main tool of a trader is.....how long he can hold winner
.......
with love to all wellwishers
oilman5

 

[oilman5]

the market has upwards bias intact.thursday friday......money release by selling class 1 stock.....to create +movement......in midcap/low float stock proves ......stem is left
...
hence entry on a normal correction after result is out.
alternately....with better than expected particular result......a better entry is possible based on momentum play
...........
pl study bse ....sector strength......and compare with last quarter..........u dont reqd call giver to earn
however a defined strategy.....suiting u......is must

 

[oilman5]

yesterday......i meet a rm......an av earner of 40000/50000 per week.......an mba with 3yr dealer experience +be[mech]
he shows me .....why he earns....a la linda style short @ future.....on well publisized [media]
.....as market is losing strength....on individal high volume counter he does fade trading....
professional dealers r doing now that[ unless u have trained eye dont experiment it]
..........so what i mean to say
1. he has a trading skill
2. its suit him[high risk taking young individual , dont predict market....just follow order flow....when its bearish, a particular pivot bias ....where resistance may act based on dynamic condition.
3.news checking.....what media wants to fade today
4.understanding of market as extended bull run
5.implementing strategy
.............
have a good day

 

[nitinku5021a]

Nice Thread Oilman....Thanks a lot

Nitin

 

[oilman5]

how to use traderji.com
.................................
its the excellent site from india......for traders......popularised by a trader/call writer from mumbai as mentioned in recommendation in bottom.
it deals on sector relative stength.....good individual pick......using strength
those future traders normally earn by it....software alogrythm based on metastock eod/hrly chart.....used ....for candidate.
in stockpicksindia.com intermediate term trading signal r discussed....with high success rate
[yes i try to learn from traderji.....but he has time constraint........here again i suggest if he could take a course....on trading by himself like train the traders' @mumbai]
....the newsletters r worth its value......a trading philosophy implementable by av. joe
....atleast u have edge to trade professionally
...................................................
the direct site traderji.......formatized.....depending upon ur level ..queries some pt i touch
1.choice of broker
2.stock or f&0
3.commodity
4.risk/money management
5.developing a system
6.ta as a tool for trader
7.software for trading
8.useful fundamental analysis
9.system implementation exercise
10.resources....excellent book/literature collection
......some other in lighter vain and ofcourse crowd puller tipstar
.....overall one should be a member of it.....with basic philosophy to learn & earn
from market
....................

 

[uasish]

Amongst the innumerable posts in this August Forum many have truly Helped me to Learn by hitting me conceptually,remould my understanding,guiding me.There are many.

 

[oilman5]

here i give hint of a word called .....proactive....in the context of trading.
we start trading from family/own interest/others talk[peer syndrome]....and related job
soon we learn how much water actually we r in.
we may have earn /loss......it creates inquisitive mind to learn further....atleast to know what to learn........yes with self realisation.....an ordinary why 'search person.....think what is called oppurtunity......in a defined way
the class called what to do now........is below......as they have not understand word ....REALISATION
it may be call taking/greed drive......or fear driven thrown out of market'lot......who knows /smells again......turn TRADER.
so predictive mode start with search of literature/article....qualified analyst.
few who survive .....understand .....imp of solo journey......continuation concept of work
in the word of cv......a master craftsman.
so price or economypredictive road........2 distinctive journey path evolve in market place.
learn and learn is motto then
we all know now.......money main driving force........show where money is business and flourish.....like old days of ancestors........nomad to stay near good river.
so now all know why......fii came in india
so think like them where they put money[before putting it actually]
......yes i have read a book on indian industry ....economic development 2002..12.
a costly one 9500/- @ 2002......direct prospect upto ..2007.....and interpolative predictive target....on 2012
..........so when money flow starts .......u should see .....from price .....in flow....predictive mode........just take proper action.
....yes thats why i am an old man

 

[kuriako]

learn trend first......
defn of up/down......volatile.......
next distribution /accumulation
........this must be applied on nifty
........then study,..........fibonacci
then study pattern .....psychology behind each pattern
....imp one for actual trading.......triangle /flag./1-2-3
.......in bullish market ..cup and handle
...then learn bearish one.....h&s..2t/3t.........and what condition they fail
.................
learn short imminent reversal......oneday/ 2day sp. pattern bullish/bearish reversal based on candlestick
next solve.......gap up and gap down.......use it to judge strength of market....no other purpose.....till u grasp it fully..
...............................
after this u should u can look through indicator.....
use ma........dual ma.....experiment with many alternatve.......remember just basic......
smaller one cutting and move up.....shows upward bias.
take a suitable indicator....to gauge strength of market
........
when u know more study one overbought/oversold one .....i prefer william%r
use it in tradezone.......
next level .......is to define and predict........trend or non trend.........which as per me a trader must learn first......2/3 tools available choose any one
....spend time on it........patience pays
..........now come developing a system based on technical.....ha ha..its ur job
.....btw....without divergence study do nothing
.........................
u think u know......but.....study another 2tool ...advance decline and new high/low data......
and raw moneyflow data...particularly fii/mf

.....this is only ta......better use stop/mm.....otherwise...money comes and goes.
....btw u lose due to poor mm......may have listen to some crap..call giver
.........

Golden words!!!

Infact an algorithm for every person to learn TA...

Innumerable thanks oilman!!!
But the english
Though understandable u make ppl to take an extra effort to read

Newbies...Plz read this!!!

 

[oilman5]

let me present another known tips followed by present aggressive pro.
its regarding future.....though can be applied in high volume cash....basic idea momentum.
CONCEPT IS COPIED FROM TRADINGMARKETS,TRADERJI LETTER,HITENDRA BASUDEV
the runaway market [bullish upbias,continuity].....attracts trader more....also joes in later on.
candidates shows extra strength.....concept hint also given meta-formula.com
basically...capital good market showing strength on 2004......is great from excellent trading prospect...as we all know now....however few could re-enter it.so this high risk-high reward ratio trade style....based on market +bias,....then strong sector..then leader/....for short ....
weak sector /then laggard.
so market bias.......and sector strength r criteria......basically scanner is used in metastock to find relative strength comparison......or relative performance high one
then sort by strength......as we normally can follow max 3trade at a time.....so CANDIDATE FOR NEXT DAY/WEEK r prepared ....what can be done.....to execute .....to grab oppurtunity
.......its basically....in rightside of chart showing oppurtunity bias.
so trade is taken as per ur criteria..of entry/exit.......when price starts move up.....and stall.
a recent entry.....of mrpl @54........or ongc @860....clarify trade logic.
even as per Mr Mark Boucher .....is the no 1 tool......2nd one is.......where the growth is.,which......i express in last posting......by a single word [proactive].....though another word REALISATION calls on.
............some pro .....broad market analysis.....and leading sector ....la canslim style...USE SAME THING.
......for amateur......tradersedgeindia.....or moneytimes's profitrak power publish this for indian market
note: this may be attempted by experienced trader.....high risk attitude must suit him....
commendable adaptability is reqd......though system testing shows good return....with call around 60% accuracy
........................