Sridhar's Trading Dairy

[sridhga]

I managed to keep the monkey caged. But, had I let it run wild, would have profited very well, because the same BEL had given very big opportunity. I was worried of over trading and giving back the profits. So, no further profit or risk of loss. Morning's profits stand protected.

 

[Satya.]

u r doing vry gud,dts a big profit,njoy hppy wkend

 

[sridhga]

BEL has hit an all-time high of 193.4 in Nov. 2017. Since then it has been on a continous downward trend. BJP is facing headwinds and, so, national security and defence sector takes a back seat? Of course, profit for the last quarter was also bad. But now it has hit mid-2016 levels. That is also at 52 week low. So far it has not given any sign of upmove. New missile testing and possible satellite contract from ISRO has not cheered the markets. Need to observe this on monday. How much low can it go? Rs. 100/-. Will this price attract any big investor like LIC? Will it move up or will it slide down further. Rs. 100 could be a big resistence if it is tested. So let watch this for this week.

 

[Vijay11]

BEL has hit an all-time high of 193.4 in Nov. 2017. Since then it has been on a continous downward trend. BJP is facing headwinds and, so, national security and defence sector takes a back seat? Of course, profit for the last quarter was also bad. But now it has hit mid-2016 levels. That is also at 52 week low. So far it has not given any sign of upmove. New missile testing and possible satellite contract from ISRO has not cheered the markets. Need to observe this on monday. How much low can it go? Rs. 100/-. Will this price attract any big investor like LIC? Will it move up or will it slide down further. Rs. 100 could be a big resistence if it is tested. So let watch this for this week.

Hi sridhga,

I have gone through all the six pages, but at no place I find mention of your TF! Whether it is 1M, 5M or 15M (probably you might
be following 5M charts after the initial gap of 15M or 30M to respect your ORB).
Plus there are No Charts to go through your trades.
You know, a chart discloses a lot.
Hope I am not disturbing the flow of your trades.

I wish you well.
Happy trading.

Vijay

 

[sridhga]

Hi sridhga,

I have gone through all the six pages, but at no place I find mention of your TF! Whether it is 1M, 5M or 15M (probably you might
be following 5M charts after the initial gap of 15M or 30M to respect your ORB).
Plus there are No Charts to go through your trades.
You know, a chart discloses a lot.
Hope I am not disturbing the flow of your trades.

I wish you well.
Happy trading.

Vijay

I will reply to you in the evening.

 

[sridhga]

As discussed, buying has come back in BEL. Now we need to see if this sustains to create an uptrend. Today could end up in Doji formation. Buying was observed in the last 3 hours on friday. That seems to be continuing, but sporadic.

 

[sridhga]

Trades for today
Product ----------- Instrument ----------- P&L (Rs.)
BO --------- BEL18JUNFUT --------------- +2227.5
NRML ------- BEL18JUNFUT --------------- +1485
Total ------------------------------------------- +3712.5
Less Transaction charges Approx. ------------- -750
That was with 5 trades (lots)
Balance-------------------------- +2962.5

 

[sridhga]

Today BEL formed a Doji with higher volume. The day suggested that buying is happening in large quantities (accumulation). But this is happening discreetly and there were no sharp spikes with volume during the day. The share is likely to go up in the near future. Let us see if it continues tomorrow. Difficult to short in such circumstances.

 

[sridhga]

Hi sridhga,

I have gone through all the six pages, but at no place I find mention of your TF! Whether it is 1M, 5M or 15M (probably you might
be following 5M charts after the initial gap of 15M or 30M to respect your ORB).
Plus there are No Charts to go through your trades.
You know, a chart discloses a lot.
Hope I am not disturbing the flow of your trades.

I wish you well.
Happy trading.

Vijay

Hi,

I do not stick to a single time frame. During the day, after the trade is triggered, I only check minute charts to observe the volume if it is aligned with upward movement or downward. To set ORB triggers, I do not need a chart, but I check high/low at 10:00 am. EOD, I check hourly, daily, weekly, monthly charts. I do not post the charts because, in reality, I do not give them much importance. I do not think charting is a predictive science. For example, an organisation like DRDO, ISRO they make rockets, missiles etc. They can predict the path of an object using the principles of physics. If they trace an enemy missile, they know how to extrapolate its path and take it down. Likewise astronomers, predict the path of stellar objects like stars, planets, meteors, galaxies etc. I had observed many traders taking to charts very religiously. But stock charts cannot predict the future movement like in the case of those who use physics. Stock charts are useful only to understand what happened uptill now. They show at what point of time bulls won over bears, or, vice versa. I see most utility in mapping volume in stock charts to see if buying or selling is taking place in large volume and at what price points. I do not set my targets or stop losses by drawing lines against charts. In that sense I do not attach much importance to back testing using charts.

Study of markets is not science. It is a mix of mass psychology and probability.

1. Charts should be just a tool to trace the foot print of psychological behaviour. Nothing more. You cannot predict the future, nor you can set realistically targets or stop losses. You undertand the footprints of Bulls, Bears, Winners, Losers etc. But why do you need this information? You need it, because, you just want to know where big money entered. Market is always a game of big money squeezing out the small.
2. The second aspect of trading is probability. Once you enter a trade it can go either ways. A chart cannot help you in this. You should have a plan if the trade goes in your direction. You should have another plan if the trade goes against you. Plan A and Plan B is not enough. If the trade goes for some time in your direction and then it reverses you should have another plan. If it goes against you for sometime and then reverses you should have a plan. The last two plans are actually multiple plans because you do not know the distance it travels in that specific direction. Your plan should have all these thought out. And it should be thought out in such a way that probability works in your favour. I only look at price points rather than charts. For me price points are important. I do a mental run of my trades in the morning before trading day starts. For this, I do not need charts.
Anyone who worked at strategic management level can tell you that you can outsource routine things. You cannot outsource decision making. If one is weak in decision making, they can hire consultants strictly only for knowledge accretive purposes, but, still, cannot outsource decision making. Charts and computer systems cannot make decisions including target setting SL setting etc.

People who trade in grains, vegetables etc. are not using charts. But they are also speculating to some extent. They just keep price points in their minds. They are very successful in their speculation.

I tried my best in replying to you. I had to discuss so many points because you asked basic (which is good) questions, that, happen to probe my approach and understanding of trading. To tell you honestly, I am not very experienced in trading. Maybe some seniors here can explain this better,or, maybe some of them may differ with my views, or maybe you can share your views on this subject. To each, his own.

Regards,

Sridhar Garimella

 

[jagankris]

Hi,

I do not stick to a single time frame. During the day, after the trade is triggered, I only check minute charts to observe the volume if it is aligned with upward movement or downward.
Stock charts are useful only to understand what happened uptill now. They show at what point of time bulls won over bears, or, vice versa. I see most utility in mapping volume in stock charts to see if buying or selling is taking place in large volume and at what price points.
Study of markets is not science. It is a mix of mass psychology and probability.
Regards,
Sridhar Garimella

There is something called Order Flow Charts or Foot Print Charts which you might be interested.
http://www.traderji.com/community/threads/order-flow-and-volume-profile-trading.101001/