Weekly Review 012311
This was not the best of times for forecasting this week. The directional biases were right, for the most part, but the targets were off, which meant some trading opportunities were missed.
I faired pretty well with the commodities, and I dont trade them. Still, I was quite happy they worked, because of all the new people that are following them on my blog
Also, this is a cut-n-paste from my blog, so all these forecasts could not be documented in this thread.
EUR/USD: Expectations of the top of the daily cloud have been met. Price finished last week near the top, so it is expected for a correction to begin next week. I would look to 1.3445 to act as containment, which is the MR1, and by the time the price gets there, it will also be the top of the 4-hour cloud, which will be an excellent cluster S. There is still some strong momentum on the part of the weekly, and so it could sustain another move to higher ground, as we see the top of the cloud taken out in favor of circa 1.3780. Once that area is hit, then I am expecting a strong reversal.
The pair peaked at 1.3757 on Thursday, and had the strong move south on Friday.
USD/JPY: Im expecting a further move south to 82.38, or this weeks MS1. That should be containment as the reversal wings it way towards cluster R at 84.20, and then 85.80, and then the monthly kijun at 87.64. Whether or not we make it to the former level this week is subject to conjecture. We are still headed to all those points.
That was a typo on the MS1. It should have been WS1. The dip was actually 81.97, and never went anywhere after that except a strong spike to 83.21 and back.
GBP/USD: The area of 1.5880 is cluster S. I am favoring that to hold up as we head to higher ground. We should now be headed to the YR1 at 1.6102. As long as the YR1 holds, we have 1.4119 on the radar before the year is out.
The UP may be over as this weeks peak was 1.6013. A further indication is the cluster S went out the window as the dip took us to 1.5750
USD/CHF: The MP is .9382. Somewhere between this weeks WS1 and the MP should mark containment. I dont think we are that far away from a huge move north. This weeks WS1 may not be the exact reversal point, but it could mark a zz at the beginning, and then lots of pips heading north.
The dip was .9389, just missing the MP. I was right on the zz. It went nowhere after that.
EUR/CHF: This pair has completed the move I forecasted 2 weeks ago, and that is very strong initial move north, and then a smaller candle move north on the weekly chart. This week should start off in the correction mode, as the 4-hout kijun at 1.2920 should be containment. On the upside, Im thinking the weekly kijun at 1.3163 will contain, and if it does not, then the top of the daily cloud is almost certain to at 1.3280.
The week ended close to the dip which was 1.2804
Note: I messed up on this forecast, as I was not taking a more careful note of the action under the daily cloud and the stoch crossover.
AUD/USD: This is almost going to be a repeat of last weeks forecast, but 1.0010 needs to contain this weeks action. If that is the case, then this will be the week of the breakaway as we see the low from 2 weeks ago at .9804 taken out in favor of the weekly kijun at .9497. If 1.0010 does hold, I would not be surprised to see the weekly kijun hit this week.
The 1.0010 level as good as held as only a spike carried the pair to 1.0021
USD/CAD: I would look for TL resistance at 1.0070 to contain this week, and then reverse back in the downtrend. I still do not believe that the movement at the far south is over yet. The weeklies are not finished yet, but I would look for a reversal be ready around somewhere under .9800. Thats the one that will contain some teeth.
This week was contained at 1.0029
NZD/USD: The .7658, which is the combination of the daily top of the cloud and tenken and the 4-hour bottom and kijun. It adds up to a stark R which suggests it better and should hold. Similar to its cousin, the Aussie, as long as that level contains, then we are headed to the weekly kijun.
This was ugly. I really missed it here as the peak was .7792.
EUR/GBP: Im favoring the weekly kijun to hold and for the correction to continue to that point at .8541. From there, the favorable scenario is for the DOWN to resume. It does not make for a low risk short. There is a possibility we are in the middle of a trip to the top of the daily cloud at .8635.
And that is what happened, as only a spike took us on the other side of the cloud to .8671.
EUR/JPY: The bullish scenario is still favorable, but the end is nearing. This strong move north looks terminal. Considering the outlook for the USD/JPY this also implies the EUR/USD is in for a very strong move south once it begins.
As for this pair, a correction is due to start the new week. The daily cloud needs to contain at 111.88. This is as long as we get a daily close above that level. Afterward, Im looking for the bottom of the weekly cloud to contain at 114.32.
The peak was 114.00, and the dip was 111.50 after the dip
Note: Just to complicate things, the wick shows it hit the bottom of the cloud, but the pointer shows the cloud is at 114.32, in spite of the peak being only 114.00
GBP/JPY: The R from last week has held at 132.50, which is now putting the focus on cluster S at 131.50. Afterward, I would look to the WR2 at 133.11 to be hit. That level should be viewed as containment for the week, and then we should see a reversal of deeper magnitude. In considering an entry for this pair, that is the level thats on my radar.
All that was hit on the upside was 132.65, and the dip ended at 129.50.
EUR/CAD: This pair just had a collision course with the weekly kijun with the tenken on a divergent trail. I would expect a temporary top is in place, and to see a move DOWN to my WS2 MP combo at 1.3294. The 4-hour kijun is also in that respective area.
The dip only took us to 1.3490, and the collision course was at the top of the daily cloud at 1.3706
EUR/AUD: This pair has broken the weekly TL, along with bumping into the weekly kijun. Usually, when a TL is broken, there is a pullback to it. So, along with the kijun being hit, we should see the uptrend taking a temporary break. It probably will not make it back to the tenken at 1.3354, but Im still expecting a pullback to the MR2 at 1.3475. Overall, I think longer term the uptrend has begun, and we should get confirmation of that upon reaction at the MR2. A bounce off that level, then a return to current level will signal we are in the longer term UP. That being the case, then, LT, 1.6975 is on the radar (no typo).
I had to settle for the dip to end at 1.3645 on this one.
DJIA: This market is getting ready for a titanic reversal, but there is still strong momentum on the monthly. The daily and weekly are very OB, and if it wasn't for the monthly, I'd be saying, "Hold on to your seatbelts RIGHT NOW." That's not the case, sooooo:
This market is going to hit my YR1 at 12180.52.What we are going to get is the typical bounce, correction, or trend reversal from that point. When we finally get a reversal, what I'm expecting is a medium term correction. Look for the previous week's low to be broken in order to signal that the reversal has begun. Last week's low was 11684.Once it happens, at this point, we will get a minimum drop to massive cluster S at 10923. If that get taken out, then we get another strong move to 10273.
The reversal appears to have begun on Friday, and it missed the YR1, settling for the peak at 11967.50.
NoteThe 61.8% mark of YPYR1 is 11929.70. Notice the closing action for the week around that mark. Ill have to feature this market in my beginning-of-the-week forecasts. There is an interesting development.
USD/CHF: Take special note of this pair. As I mentioned in the forecasts for the week, this pair is getting ready to break away. It is in a hurry to get this the base fortified, as it has been in a sharp decline to start the week. But, don't forget, I did say .9382 is containment. I also have a host of indications that the pair is going to explode. The pair shot down to my WS1at .9537, then bridged the WS2 at .9491, and is now taking on the appearance of a double continuation to the WS3 at .9415. 4-hour stochastics is very OS. There is a strong stochastic divergence on the weekly chart, and the monthly is very OS, and finally crossed.
The pair finished 3 points above the WS3. All I can say about this one is, be patient. You know it will be featured when I do the forecasts for the week.
GBP/CHF: Watch the GBP/CHF. I think the correction is over with, as it prepares for a huge reversal. It just bounced off my MR1 at 1.4853, and is very OB on the 4-hour, and momentum still favors the weekly.
It bounced perfectly off that point, then peaked at 1.5102 on the rebound, and then came back DOWN and finished the week at 1.4939.
Corn: It is headed to a cluster event at 626.25--624.44. If that area is taken out convincingly, then we are headed to the weekly tenken at 593.62.
The dip ended at 639.25
Beans: This commodity is at a decision point. From current level, either it gets broken, or we get a strong reversal back in the UP. A break of the current level, and then this market is on its way to the weekly tenken at 1330.63, and then the kijun at 1213.13.
Current level was 1385. That level held, and the subsequent rise took us back to 1422.80, and the market finished the week at 1400.50
Wheat: This market appears headed to the next cluster event at the WR2 and MR2 combo at 855.49 and 857.39, respectively.
Only a spike carried this market to the other side at 862.50, and then we had Fridays strong reversal.
This was not the best of times for forecasting this week. The directional biases were right, for the most part, but the targets were off, which meant some trading opportunities were missed.
I faired pretty well with the commodities, and I dont trade them. Still, I was quite happy they worked, because of all the new people that are following them on my blog
Also, this is a cut-n-paste from my blog, so all these forecasts could not be documented in this thread.
EUR/USD: Expectations of the top of the daily cloud have been met. Price finished last week near the top, so it is expected for a correction to begin next week. I would look to 1.3445 to act as containment, which is the MR1, and by the time the price gets there, it will also be the top of the 4-hour cloud, which will be an excellent cluster S. There is still some strong momentum on the part of the weekly, and so it could sustain another move to higher ground, as we see the top of the cloud taken out in favor of circa 1.3780. Once that area is hit, then I am expecting a strong reversal.
The pair peaked at 1.3757 on Thursday, and had the strong move south on Friday.
USD/JPY: Im expecting a further move south to 82.38, or this weeks MS1. That should be containment as the reversal wings it way towards cluster R at 84.20, and then 85.80, and then the monthly kijun at 87.64. Whether or not we make it to the former level this week is subject to conjecture. We are still headed to all those points.
That was a typo on the MS1. It should have been WS1. The dip was actually 81.97, and never went anywhere after that except a strong spike to 83.21 and back.
GBP/USD: The area of 1.5880 is cluster S. I am favoring that to hold up as we head to higher ground. We should now be headed to the YR1 at 1.6102. As long as the YR1 holds, we have 1.4119 on the radar before the year is out.
The UP may be over as this weeks peak was 1.6013. A further indication is the cluster S went out the window as the dip took us to 1.5750
USD/CHF: The MP is .9382. Somewhere between this weeks WS1 and the MP should mark containment. I dont think we are that far away from a huge move north. This weeks WS1 may not be the exact reversal point, but it could mark a zz at the beginning, and then lots of pips heading north.
The dip was .9389, just missing the MP. I was right on the zz. It went nowhere after that.
EUR/CHF: This pair has completed the move I forecasted 2 weeks ago, and that is very strong initial move north, and then a smaller candle move north on the weekly chart. This week should start off in the correction mode, as the 4-hout kijun at 1.2920 should be containment. On the upside, Im thinking the weekly kijun at 1.3163 will contain, and if it does not, then the top of the daily cloud is almost certain to at 1.3280.
The week ended close to the dip which was 1.2804
Note: I messed up on this forecast, as I was not taking a more careful note of the action under the daily cloud and the stoch crossover.
AUD/USD: This is almost going to be a repeat of last weeks forecast, but 1.0010 needs to contain this weeks action. If that is the case, then this will be the week of the breakaway as we see the low from 2 weeks ago at .9804 taken out in favor of the weekly kijun at .9497. If 1.0010 does hold, I would not be surprised to see the weekly kijun hit this week.
The 1.0010 level as good as held as only a spike carried the pair to 1.0021
USD/CAD: I would look for TL resistance at 1.0070 to contain this week, and then reverse back in the downtrend. I still do not believe that the movement at the far south is over yet. The weeklies are not finished yet, but I would look for a reversal be ready around somewhere under .9800. Thats the one that will contain some teeth.
This week was contained at 1.0029
NZD/USD: The .7658, which is the combination of the daily top of the cloud and tenken and the 4-hour bottom and kijun. It adds up to a stark R which suggests it better and should hold. Similar to its cousin, the Aussie, as long as that level contains, then we are headed to the weekly kijun.
This was ugly. I really missed it here as the peak was .7792.
EUR/GBP: Im favoring the weekly kijun to hold and for the correction to continue to that point at .8541. From there, the favorable scenario is for the DOWN to resume. It does not make for a low risk short. There is a possibility we are in the middle of a trip to the top of the daily cloud at .8635.
And that is what happened, as only a spike took us on the other side of the cloud to .8671.
EUR/JPY: The bullish scenario is still favorable, but the end is nearing. This strong move north looks terminal. Considering the outlook for the USD/JPY this also implies the EUR/USD is in for a very strong move south once it begins.
As for this pair, a correction is due to start the new week. The daily cloud needs to contain at 111.88. This is as long as we get a daily close above that level. Afterward, Im looking for the bottom of the weekly cloud to contain at 114.32.
The peak was 114.00, and the dip was 111.50 after the dip
Note: Just to complicate things, the wick shows it hit the bottom of the cloud, but the pointer shows the cloud is at 114.32, in spite of the peak being only 114.00
GBP/JPY: The R from last week has held at 132.50, which is now putting the focus on cluster S at 131.50. Afterward, I would look to the WR2 at 133.11 to be hit. That level should be viewed as containment for the week, and then we should see a reversal of deeper magnitude. In considering an entry for this pair, that is the level thats on my radar.
All that was hit on the upside was 132.65, and the dip ended at 129.50.
EUR/CAD: This pair just had a collision course with the weekly kijun with the tenken on a divergent trail. I would expect a temporary top is in place, and to see a move DOWN to my WS2 MP combo at 1.3294. The 4-hour kijun is also in that respective area.
The dip only took us to 1.3490, and the collision course was at the top of the daily cloud at 1.3706
EUR/AUD: This pair has broken the weekly TL, along with bumping into the weekly kijun. Usually, when a TL is broken, there is a pullback to it. So, along with the kijun being hit, we should see the uptrend taking a temporary break. It probably will not make it back to the tenken at 1.3354, but Im still expecting a pullback to the MR2 at 1.3475. Overall, I think longer term the uptrend has begun, and we should get confirmation of that upon reaction at the MR2. A bounce off that level, then a return to current level will signal we are in the longer term UP. That being the case, then, LT, 1.6975 is on the radar (no typo).
I had to settle for the dip to end at 1.3645 on this one.
DJIA: This market is getting ready for a titanic reversal, but there is still strong momentum on the monthly. The daily and weekly are very OB, and if it wasn't for the monthly, I'd be saying, "Hold on to your seatbelts RIGHT NOW." That's not the case, sooooo:
This market is going to hit my YR1 at 12180.52.What we are going to get is the typical bounce, correction, or trend reversal from that point. When we finally get a reversal, what I'm expecting is a medium term correction. Look for the previous week's low to be broken in order to signal that the reversal has begun. Last week's low was 11684.Once it happens, at this point, we will get a minimum drop to massive cluster S at 10923. If that get taken out, then we get another strong move to 10273.
The reversal appears to have begun on Friday, and it missed the YR1, settling for the peak at 11967.50.
NoteThe 61.8% mark of YPYR1 is 11929.70. Notice the closing action for the week around that mark. Ill have to feature this market in my beginning-of-the-week forecasts. There is an interesting development.
USD/CHF: Take special note of this pair. As I mentioned in the forecasts for the week, this pair is getting ready to break away. It is in a hurry to get this the base fortified, as it has been in a sharp decline to start the week. But, don't forget, I did say .9382 is containment. I also have a host of indications that the pair is going to explode. The pair shot down to my WS1at .9537, then bridged the WS2 at .9491, and is now taking on the appearance of a double continuation to the WS3 at .9415. 4-hour stochastics is very OS. There is a strong stochastic divergence on the weekly chart, and the monthly is very OS, and finally crossed.
The pair finished 3 points above the WS3. All I can say about this one is, be patient. You know it will be featured when I do the forecasts for the week.
GBP/CHF: Watch the GBP/CHF. I think the correction is over with, as it prepares for a huge reversal. It just bounced off my MR1 at 1.4853, and is very OB on the 4-hour, and momentum still favors the weekly.
It bounced perfectly off that point, then peaked at 1.5102 on the rebound, and then came back DOWN and finished the week at 1.4939.
Corn: It is headed to a cluster event at 626.25--624.44. If that area is taken out convincingly, then we are headed to the weekly tenken at 593.62.
The dip ended at 639.25
Beans: This commodity is at a decision point. From current level, either it gets broken, or we get a strong reversal back in the UP. A break of the current level, and then this market is on its way to the weekly tenken at 1330.63, and then the kijun at 1213.13.
Current level was 1385. That level held, and the subsequent rise took us back to 1422.80, and the market finished the week at 1400.50
Wheat: This market appears headed to the next cluster event at the WR2 and MR2 combo at 855.49 and 857.39, respectively.
Only a spike carried this market to the other side at 862.50, and then we had Fridays strong reversal.