This was an extremely volatile week. Price action was all over the place in many markets. Having said that, this was still an excellent week for trading, as well as my forecasting. I hope many of you like going into many of these chat forums they have on forex. Many so-called traders will blame their lack of good trades on market volatility and be crying the blues that you can’t make money under those conditions. That’s why you go to the chat rooms first, and then come here to get some normalcy.
For the corn, beans, and wheat people, you will find those reviews lower in the list. The reviews are given in order of when the forecasts were made.
Some pairs were forecasted more than once during the week. Some of the seconds were excluded just so I don’t make this entry a book.
GBP/JPY: “131.49, the top of the cloud has been taken out, and the next major R will be 132.50”
The peak for the week was 132.50, exactly.
GBP/CHF: “A 4-hour close below 1.5246, which is the tenken should mark the end to the UP. The daily tenken at 1.4902 should be an easy target.”
The dip hit the low at 1.5193, so I was wrong.
Note—Current level has got to hold. IF it does, then I might be a week late.
USD/JPY: “If cluster S at 82.37 gives out, then we are headed to 81.58, which is the WS2. 81.22 is additional support.”
The dip for the week was 81.84 before it began its ascent.
Note—That forecast was posted at the end of last week. This week’s WS3 was actually 81.88.
EUR/USD: “That confluence should be containment, and it not, then we are headed to the top of the daily cloud at 1.3624. Momentum indicates that the daily could push the pair further north.”
This week’s peak was 1.3624 exactly.
Oil: “Once 92.52 has been taken out, look for a very strong move to my MR2 (yellow line) at 94.17.”
This week’s peak was 92.06, as the market was involved in some really volatile moves to the south.
Note—Still waiting for that peak to be broken.
USD/INR: “I'll lay out the ideal situation from a trader's perspective. First, to start the week, we have a pullback to the 4-hour kijun at 45.17, then we get a move UP. Afterward, we get a move to my MR3 at 45.81. As long as this basic scenario plays out, then we will have a strong playable short from 45.81.”
The ideal scenario played out perfectly. The week started with a dip to 45.18, and then the peak for the week was 45.80.
Note—This is proof my methodology works for all markets. I don't trade this market but forecast it as per your requests.
USD/JPY: Last week's low at 82.40 needs to hold. As long as that is the case, then the consolidation is over. Assuming that is the case, then the weekly kijun at 84.20 will be initial R. Additional R will be the monthly tenken at 87.64 and the kijun at 90.87.
If 82.40 is taken out, then we could see a move back to circa 81.25. The longer term dip at 80.30 seems to have been established. The monthly chart is getting ready for the move to at least the kijun I already mentioned.
I did say “could”. The dip was only 81.84. I did post somewhere else about 81.88 being the reversal.
GBP/USD: “The top of the daily cloud is 1.5892, which should have been containment. There is enough momentum in the move that it could break through it. If that does happen, then the next R will be my MR3 at 1.6011.
If the top does hold up, then the daily kijun is in view at 1.5627. Regardless, of which route it takes, it promises to be explosive.”
That momentum took us to the peak at 1.6058. The week settled at 1.6003.
USD/CHF: "There is tremendous overhead R on the 4-hour chart, so it would be favorable for a mild pullback, only, to begin the week. The bottom of the 4-hour cloud is an excellent reference point for support currently at .9523. An even more accurate idea will be assessed once I come out with the weeklies.
That S also seems to be weak, right now, as the move south could go deeper to as low as .9382, and possibly .9349.
What we might see happening with this pair is that the sharp downtrend that started at 1.1730 with this pair needs further correcting and a broader base needs to be established before the uptrend is fully realized. As long as the all-time low holds up at .9319, then the attributes of all the noise is showing a definite breakaway north in no less than 6 weeks from now."
The dip for the week was .9519, and there is still a lot of noise.
AUD/USD: “This pair is getting the squeeze put on it. As I alluded to in the past, the big break is favored south, and the top is in place. On Friday, the pair met with the top of the daily cloud at .9859 (Dip was .9856.). The tenken and kijun are descending with the tenken crossed over. This implies that 1.0110 should now be containment on the upside. I am expecting any day for there to be a strong break to the downside from current level. The weekly kijun at .9428, and then the monthly tenken at .9144 are now on the radar. It is also not far-fetched that the monthly kijun at .8236 will also be hit.”
The squeeze is still on. 1.0110 was taken out, as the peak was 1.0176. The top of the cloud was taken out, as we had a spike down to the bottom at .9832.
USD/CAD: “Now that the first objective for the further move south was met at .9854 (7 points deeper, actually.), it should be containment for the shorter term. There is room for a correction, that could end up at the weekly kijun at 1.0066, and even allowing for a further spike to 1.0108. I don't want to say definitely, but that should be containment, before we see another drive south. I'm looking for the high .9700's to at least be touched until we either get a complete reversal or a more formidable correction.
What is nice is that we are finally getting a breakaway from the 17-month eastward motion of the pair. What this could lead to is that longer term, the all-time low at .9054 could be challenged, and possibly broken, and then we get a very strong move north. For at least the medium term, the outlook is still south with the exception of the noted corrections.
We did get the move UP that ended at the peak of 1.0029.
EUR/CHF: "As I mentioned last week, there was going to be a sharp reversal for this pair, and we got it. It still has a ways to go. I am looking for the top of the hourly cloud at 1.2805 to be containment for any correction. If that area does not contain, then the 4-hour kijun will at 1.2734.
The weekly tenken at 1.3037 and the kijun at 1.3163, and chart resistance at 1.3247 are all on the radar. The monthly tenken at 1.3495 could also be a viable target."
1.2772 was the dip for the week, as the pair found its way to 1.3068, and finished at 1.3046.
EUR/GBP: "I am not a candlestick person, but every once in awhile, the evidence is undeniable. This is an example of that.
Anytime an engulfing pattern happens, there is about a 90% chance or greater of price action continuing in that direction. There is even a stronger obviation here. Notice how the candle from 2 weeks ago engulfed the 6 previous candles. What that is saying is that the journey heading east is over, and we are about to take the jet south.
What is mostly going on right now is a correction of the huge move from 2 weeks ago. The object for the trader is to find when the correction will be finished so he can get in on the trip south. Soooo, let me tell you all about it (lol):
The R on the charts is obvious. Last week, the candle bounced square off the bottom of the cloud. The kijun is inside the cloud at .8541. We would allow for a spike into the cloud up to that point. Price does not have much of a chance to progress beyond that point. Notice how the tenken is divergent from the kijun while below the cloud.
Eventually, the low of .8066 will be challenged.”
We got the spike into the weekly cloud, as the peak for the week was .8529.
EUR/JPY: “There is strong momentum in favor of this pair along with bullish divergence on the stochastics on the daily and monthly charts, therefore, the compass has changed my focus for this pair.
There are 3 things to suggest we are going to have a correction to start the week: Candle is flying high above the 4-hour cloud, price stopped at the bottom of the daily cloud and the weekly kijun. There is a confluence of S at 109.50, and initial support will be seen at 110.10. If 109.50 does not hold, then the 4-hour kijun should hold at 108.90.
On the upside the top of the daily cloud will be initial R at 112.01. I'll have to assess the action once we get there. The monthly tenken also appears to be a feasible target at 115.44.”
The dip for the week was 109.57. The top of the cloud got blown off as the peak was 112.47.
Gold: “Containment for the week should be in the 1368--1375 neighborhood. The weekly kijun / monthly tenken combo at 1293.86 is on the radar. A convincing break of 1270.83 will put the monthly kijun at 1086.04 on the radar.”
Containment for the week was 1337.77, so it did break through my projection.
Silver: “I mentioned in another post about the bottom dropping out of silver, and that is what we see going on now. The only thing that made it hard to predict was when, because it was a virtual straight line north.
The drop was halted at the combination daily cloud top and the weekly tenken, so those of you that have followed my forecasts for any length of time know what I'm going to say next. "We are in for a correction of the move south. The MS2 at 29.08 needs to contain to prevent things from getting sloppy. Afterward, it will be back into another strong leg south. Other than that, I'll just give you some nuggets fresh from the radar-- weekly kijun-24.26, monthly tenken--24.30, monthly kijun-- 19.84. It has been a long time since I've seen anything fly this high above the monthly cloud. This is only a correction of the entire move north.
BTW, the totality of the correction will take a few months to complete, so the levels are subject to change. That just gives a very good idea what to expect.”
29.46 was the peak for the week. 29.08 was broken, but then it was a sloppy week, overall. None of the nuggets from the radar were realized this week, but were not expected to, as the dip was 27.08.
Beans: “As is evidenced by the obvious beans has been in a sharp uptrend, and momentum is on its side to find some further trails north. We do have the trifecta working, namely the daily, weekly and monthly charts all approaching OB territory, which should lead to a sizeable correction. For now I would look for beans to challenge the peak set in June. 08 at 1600.00. Support will be seen at the daily tenken at 1393.75. A comfortable break under the kijun, currently at 1350.63 will begin the strong journey south. Once that journey begins, it virtually puts the weekly kijun on the radar at 1199.75.”
The dip for the week was 1383.63, but ironically, not until later in the week.
Corn: “Corn has a very similar look to beans. Strong momentum pushing north, and the trifecta in full force. I'm at a bit of a handicap on this pair, because I am not getting a full distribution of the data on the monthly charts. The obviations are there, nonetheless.
I would expect this market to make a run at 714.25, but do look for initial support to be seen at the daily tenken at 622.25. The level I would look for to be broken before we see a complete reversal is 606.04. Once that level is taken out comfortably, then that will put the weekly kijun on the radar at 511.87.”
The dip was 627.50, and similar to beans, was later in the week, then it raced to the peak at 667.00, as the markets is still eyeing its attack on 714.25.
Wheat: “There is a cluster of support at 744.32 that should hold up, with the possible exception of an intraday spike. Ever since Dec. 6, this market has had a volatile eastward motion. Given the broad base it developed in that time, and it starting from an uptrend in a sharp move, and the fact, that some how, the daily is now OS, it adds up to another leg north, and to break the top of the channel. Cluster R awaits at 825.86, and that could be a decision point. “
This has got to make the wheat people happy as the peak was 830.00 and closed at 824.50.
GBP/AUD: “A couple of people have asked me when to get in on this pair. While it was at 1.5850, my response was 1.6100 should be containment. Notice on the 4-hour how the pair has gone east in a very tight range. This is one of the hugest cluster events I have seen in a long time. Either I will be prophetic, or I will look like your goat, because if this continues north it is going to be at 1.6166 in no time, and then might move beyond that. I'm holding to my original forecast, the reversal should happen over the next few hours.”
I’ll have to settle for the consolation prize on this one, as Thursday’s move bulleted to 1.6161, and we had a peak for the week at 1.6180.
Cable cars: “CHF--I mentioned earlier concerning my MR2 at 1.5220 being temporary containment for this pair as it begins it's journey south. With the exception of the spike that carried it to 1.5198, it acted as just that. The problem was that, in hindsight, the sideways action it took to get there made that level have a springboard quality, and so we see the pair reaching higher. This does not mean we will not get the reversal. It just means I failed in calling the exact point. I would now look for a reaction at the WR1 at 1.5246, as there will be at least a bounce at that point. If that bounce does not sustain, then look for the proximity of the WR2 at 1.5426 to contain. In other words, if there is room on my platform, and the WR1 does not hold, then I'm setting an entry for 1.5426 and walking away.”
The peak for the week was 1.5423.
USD--"As per my forecast, the top of the daily cloud did not hold, and now we see the strong move on the other side of it. As also mentioned, look for reaction at 1.6011. We also have an additional level to look for, which is the WR1 at 1.5986."
1.6011 was taken out in favor of 1.6058.
AUD--"As projected we got the reversal from the 1.6100 (1.6080 was the peak) level. There should be no looking back for this pair until the objective is hit. Even though consolidations could be seen at the beginning of this run. Consolidations lead up to explosive action. If you are like me and holding a short on this pair, you want the explosiveness to happen from the beginning. That does not always happen, so patience might be needed. For a 200--400-pip winning trade, it is worth it."
As already mentioned, I was wrong here. The dip ended at 1.5887.
EUR--"The containment level around the .8478 area has held up. Price is now camped around cluster S at .8365, which includes my WS1. Either we get a bounce from here, or a continuation to the WS2 at .8306. If you are looking to short this pair. I would either wait for the bounce from the current level, or wait for the continuation process to conclude and for the return to this level. If there is a continuation, then current level will be strong R."
It stopped in mid-air as the dip was .8336, and the “bounce ended at .8529.
GBP/JPY: “It has a very similar look to the GBP/USD. The daily cloud top is 131.50, which is where it is struggling. If broken comfortably, then we are on our way to the WR1 at 132.65.
Also, looking similar to the GBP/AUD inasmuch that when it breaks it's going to be explosive.”
As already mentioned the peak for the week was 132.50.
EUR/USD: “There's enough gas in the tank, to break through current cluster R, which is the area I have alluded to so much, for it to be taken out, and for this pair to break through the other side of the daily cloud at 1.3624.”
As already mentioned, 1.3624 was the exact peak.
