Some observations

#1
I was analyzing the daily values of Nifty Spot for outside, inside, up and down days.
Thought to share here with all of you, if by chance we can observe something which can be useful for trading purpose.
Here are my observations.

I analyzed values of trading days from 2 apr 2010 to 14 mar 2012, a total of 491 trading days.

No. of Outside days (high above previous high and low below previous low)=43 (8.75%)
No. of Inside days (high below previous high and low above previous low)=54 (11%)
No. of Up days (high above previous high and low above previous low)=207 (42.15%)
No. of Down days (low below previous low and high below previous high)=187 (38%)

Out of 491 days, 232 times close was above the pivot level. The day next to these 232 days were
No. of Outside days = 23 (9.91%)
No. of Inside days = 24 (10.34%)
No. of Up days = 148 (63.8%)
No. of Down days = 37 (16%)

The remaining 259 days, close was below the pivot level. The day next to these 259 days
No. of Outside days = 20 (7.72%)
No. of Inside days = 30 (11.58%)
No. of Up days = 59 (22.8%)
No. of Down days = 150 (58%)

With the above observation, what I want to say is that we take a long at close, if the close is above pivot level, and keep a target that next day, todays high price will be breached, chances of it happening is 73%. I am assuming that outside days will hit previous days high first and then previous day's low. I need to calculate it manually though.

Similarly if we take a short at close today, if close is below pivot level. Keep target of previous day's low. Chances of price to hit the last day's low is 65%.

I am not recommending to trade on these observations neither I trade on these. I am very new to trading and a silent follower of this forum. I shared my observations here, expecting that experienced and senior trader will give there suggestions and comments.

Regards,
Siddharth
 
#2
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Out of 491 days, 232 times close was above the pivot level. The day next to these 232 days were
..
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The remaining 259 days, close was below the pivot level. The day next to these 259 days
Very interesting, and a lot of hard work.

How did you calculate the pivot levels ??

Also, if you can give some examples of the above, say 2-3 for each situation.

Thanks in advance.
 

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