I was curious about what is probability of loss if you write an option (either call or put). I've tried to do some analysis which shows interesting results. Complete rational of the thing and a downloadable excel tool on my blog

I calculated using current actual values the probability of loss (as of 2nd Oct) if we sale the out of money put and call options expiring 31st Oct

and here's the summary tables

strikePrice_____ premium_____ LossProbability

7950_____126.3_____32.34%

8000_____ 99.8_____29.44%

8050_____ 77.3_____ 26.20%

8100_____ 58_____ 22.82%

8150_____ 42_____ 19.38%

8200_____ 30_____ 15.94%

8250_____ 19.95_____ 12.77%

8300_____ 13.95_____ 9.83%

8350_____ 9.25_____ 7.35%

8400_____ 5.95_____ 5.33%

8450_____ 3.95_____ 3.74%

8500_____ 2.75_____ 2.54%

8550_____ 3.95_____ 1.65%

8600_____ 1.2 _____ 1.08%

8650_____ 1.7_____ 0.67%

8700_____ 1 _____ 0.40%

8750_____ 2 _____ 0.24%

8800_____ 0.75 _____ 0.14%

Similar analysis for done for put options in a excel file which updates these values every minute from nse and moneycontrol website.

I calculated using current actual values the probability of loss (as of 2nd Oct) if we sale the out of money put and call options expiring 31st Oct

and here's the summary tables

**Out of money call options (Current nifty 7945.55 Current India VIX 13 )-**strikePrice_____ premium_____ LossProbability

7950_____126.3_____32.34%

8000_____ 99.8_____29.44%

8050_____ 77.3_____ 26.20%

8100_____ 58_____ 22.82%

8150_____ 42_____ 19.38%

8200_____ 30_____ 15.94%

8250_____ 19.95_____ 12.77%

8300_____ 13.95_____ 9.83%

8350_____ 9.25_____ 7.35%

8400_____ 5.95_____ 5.33%

8450_____ 3.95_____ 3.74%

8500_____ 2.75_____ 2.54%

8550_____ 3.95_____ 1.65%

8600_____ 1.2 _____ 1.08%

8650_____ 1.7_____ 0.67%

8700_____ 1 _____ 0.40%

8750_____ 2 _____ 0.24%

8800_____ 0.75 _____ 0.14%

Similar analysis for done for put options in a excel file which updates these values every minute from nse and moneycontrol website.

**By looking at the numbers. It looks like a very attractive to sell out of money options.**But can experts please critically review my rational and comment from practical experience?
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