Reminiscences of a trade-learner , journey to become a PRO

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oilman5

Well-Known Member
WHY THIS 3 TRADERS' VIEW R COPY PASTED???
they make trading process simple to follow.Kartik is one great trader who gives VSA.

Why not Mr Savant Garde........highest level strike rate -90% ,cant be followed by individual ever.
Mr SAINT.........a good source of inspiration,a simple look in approach........but to implement by tom-dick-harry NOT possible, as he is a FLOW trader ,trade is natural for HIM.His logic of trend is bookish ,HH & HL guidance .........stop concept,pivot bias r learnable by experienced trader,not by av joe.Strength of him is very well TIME independent trade,5min-30min,hr,daily to weekly...........this BEST can not be copied.
Instead i will suggest u to follow ST -our moderator- his comments on day trade should be seen.
As a learner , i suggest to follow JAHAN-the detailed trader,
Those who believe in fundamental AMIT.(jamit05)
Gambling trader-Stock72
...............................................
some of u , may have seen in a argumentative discussion on ONLINETRADING ACADEMY thread(thread deleted where some professional method deciphered )-actually how lakhs can be made in market.
yes mentor helps.........but be an independent lone trader
(by going through TNSN/RAUNAK/VVonteru.............u will be a great trader within 5yr)
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
So we have come to last part of journey................now u become an expert.(a 10yr vetaren of market- av 50% return player or 24% return with part time trading)
so u have a system -for all condition of market..........like SAINT in time variation factor ,considering trend u trade & make money- get early out in wrong trade.
Or U may be great judgemental trader like ST, understanding imp pivot -price bias,how price is unfolding its futuristic behavior-so join accordingly(this i call formless trading -ultimate goal of a trader)
U must have a comfort level on stop/lot size-also greed/fear controlled personality.
U must have a list of stocks/instrument to follow- where by watching/playing day in/out market speaks to about imidiate intention.Also you know which HIGH is too high=so unsustainable & ready to short.
similarly no problem to judge nifty 5200 is unsustainable bottom ,so can cherry pick-u write trade diary to keep u fit as a trader- as u know complacency kills even the best.
Ofcourse u enjoy the life ,- as u got the fruit of trading -an independent pvt trader with total freedom.
Your system of trading may look different to others - but definitely it is money generating as market condition, approach to trade, condition to entry/exit as well as risk percept-all r syncronised with a single factor -U
u may have a plan to give it to dearer provided they can handle- or to earn more to live in luxary.
Be on guard ,market condition may change , u may have to shuffle to bring one old trade system -just like old wine in new bottle.
All of us only 4 condition exists-1] up /down trend condition
2] volatile condition -
3] low move -consolidation before directional move
4] Range play
IF U COULD DECIPHER PRICE FOR THESE CONDITIONS - with little judgement what comes next- this Earth is nicely living place- afterall thats why u r an expert trader.
(many a battle i have done to reach this level)
bye bye
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
NOTES
in page 12/13 (post no 114 onwards)- copy paste of 3 good traders of traderji r given . They can help to be a complete trader.
No thread would have possible unless Traderji given time & scope to create a group like this.I am indebted to him.(he taught me trend trading-SAR, though i dont follow )
Since documentation part is over,all question /query r welcome(at start i requested not to put comments ,as i may get distracted easily)
Yes as pro , i dont put chart- i normally trade on chart- recent break out on ZICOM ,can give the pattern i follow .
I use extensively economics to understand broad condition.
Chart is my strength zone - i use it for short term trade.
I use price flow /orderflow to small scalp momentum trade- this thing comes with experience & trial & error. Many an indicator study, infact their failure by price(as price is supreme)- taught me understanding of price behavior.
By studying price at IMP support /resistance particularly if their is pivot- can tell future direction of market.
U make money by money management/ getting out early from wrong trade.
Confidence-discipline-first hand knowledge(experience) counts.Novice can never hold money from market.
Reversal is easier to trade provided it suits your personality.
IT takes time to learn trading.Software helps to develop neutrality in mind
 

stock72

Well-Known Member
Ha!!!! .. just saw this post ..thx for coining a new potion " Gambling trader " ...:rofl::rofl:
Suddenly this word open a huge thought process in me .. will share one structured it ...

WHY THIS 3 TRADERS' VIEW R COPY PASTED???
they make trading process simple to follow.Kartik is one great trader who gives VSA.

Why not Mr Savant Garde........highest level strike rate -90% ,cant be followed by individual ever.
Mr SAINT.........a good source of inspiration,a simple look in approach........but to implement by tom-dick-harry NOT possible, as he is a FLOW trader ,trade is natural for HIM.His logic of trend is bookish ,HH & HL guidance .........stop concept,pivot bias r learnable by experienced trader,not by av joe.Strength of him is very well TIME independent trade,5min-30min,hr,daily to weekly...........this BEST can not be copied.
Instead i will suggest u to follow ST -our moderator- his comments on day trade should be seen.
As a learner , i suggest to follow JAHAN-the detailed trader,
Those who believe in fundamental AMIT.(jamit05)
Gambling trader-Stock72
...............................................
some of u , may have seen in a argumentative discussion on ONLINETRADING ACADEMY thread(thread deleted where some professional method deciphered )-actually how lakhs can be made in market.
yes mentor helps.........but be an independent lone trader
(by going through TNSN/RAUNAK/VVonteru.............u will be a great trader within 5yr)
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Ha!!!! .. just saw this post ..thx for coining a new potion " Gambling trader " ...:rofl::rofl:
Suddenly this word open a huge thought process in me .. will share one structured it ...
...................................................................
Why ? his initial losing yr -stop is higher, hit rate is low.
But when he syncronise with market aka his system-his confidence & discipline -makes him a rewarding trader.
So this is the aim of a successful trader, after one earns consistently from market- TRADE BIG with discipline & confidence.clap for him:clapping:
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Before u become a Pro- a pvt lone trader (only trade on own money) should have checked his return as part-time trader.
A QUALITATIVE CHECKLIST ON
1] CONFIDENCE
2[ KNOWLEDGE ON MARKET
3] KNOWLEDGE ON TA -HOW FAR TA CAN BE APPLIED
4] EXPERIENCE
5] SKILL OF EXECUTION
6] MARKET PSYCHOLOGY-CROWD BEHAVIOR
7] OWN PSYCHOLOGY
8] OWN EMOTIONAL CONTROLLING MECHANISM WHILE ON TRADE
9] RISK MANAGEMENT
9] DISCIPLINE ATTITUDE
10] DEFINING OPPORTUNITY
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method checklist

intraday -momentum
swing -countertrend
position-both fundamental+ ta bias
OUT OF THIS WHICH HAS MORE SUITED ie. by which style actually u made money
............................................
WHERE U R MASTER?- SOME PARTICULAR STOCKs ,or some sector, some technical pattern
What is ur threshold for booking stop?How u define HIGH Probability in a trade ,before u enter- what mitigation plan if otherside low probability event actually happens.
..............................................
What is your plan of learning/behavior modification plan in everchanging Market condition (which may change some characteristics even within a week)
How do u capitalize sector rotation of fundflow?
........................................................
all this things must be written & follow regular basis ,in your journey as a pro
hope u enjoy to become a pvt trader.
 
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Trading Positive Divergence on Daily Time Frame

Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart, Stochastic Oscillator with standard settings (15,3). Overbought/Oversold conditions used as 80/20

Trade Setup – The basics of this setup is very easy to understand. If possible, monitors stocks which move in any kind of market. Typically these are high beta stocks. However, most of the stocks traded in Futures segment should do fine. What we are looking for is a stock making a new high whereas the stochastic highs forming a lower high. That means, stock makes a higher high and Indicator makes a Lower High. This is highlighted in red lines on price and Indicator. Now once the stock makes a new high, we need to see the indicator levels. If this indicator level forms a divergence and goes back into the neutral zone (that is below 80) then we short the stock, keeping the high as our stop loss. I usually target a 5-8% move. Remember, the divergences should occur over period of 1-2 Months.

Time Validity - I trade this pattern only on daily charts. However, it can work on any time frame. Please remember to adjust your targets accordingly. On daily time frame I use targets of 5-8%. On an hourly frame, this comes down to about 2-4%.

How to trade it - Refer to the chart below. Gujrat Ambuja made a high on 3/29/2010. It then rallied in April and made a new high on 29th April 2010. There was a distinct divergence visible on the charts. We now wait for our indicator to go into the neutral zone (that is, below 80). This happens on 30th April 2010. We get filled at 121.05 and keep a stop loss of 125.8. Over the next 10 sessions Gujrat Ambuja attains the target of 5-8%. The stock goes down much lower, but we maintain out targets and exit the trade.

Adding Positions - Divergence setups usually have very good risk to reward ratio. When trading these patterns with indicators, there is always a risk for the indicators to reverse and the price to move up. Hence, we need to take use of signals which are perfect. To do this, what we do is add one more lot once the stochastic indicator goes below 50. Usually indicator reversals for perfect signals rarely take place below 50. Hence we add position here. This is depicted by Blue horizontal lines.

Target - 5- 8%

STOPLOSS - Recent high of prices

Chart –
………………………………………………………
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Usually how u trade breakouts? I read that we should trade the pullbacks of breakout and not breakout.Take LT, it gave breakout on 17/05/10. I didnot enter as such a huge volume and it went up from 1474 to 1606 in a day.But two days past its still going up only. Now waiting for pullback,but missed a gud move.
So in general how we should trade breakouts?

Trading breakouts on pullback is "Ideally" the right way to do it. However, let me tell you something. Most of the breakouts which do run up quite a bit are the one's which never give a pullback. Hence you need to see how and when the break out occurs. If the stock has been negative (not so bullish) for quite sometime and then you suddenly see it breaking out of a range, then this kind of breakout will run up fast.

E.g: LT was trading weak. It suddenly broke out and is now heading high. Broke out after news hit the market.
E.g: RNRL was doing the same. But the news even was yet to be delivered. Hence you need to be careful.

Hope you get my point.
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Let me give u a small story
Once a person was learning astrology ok
after some time he tell that I know now everything about astrology
person ask him what is in his feast (hand)
He started calculation and in that it comes that there is something living thing with more then 4 legs
he tell at once wow see my calculation its OCTOPUS
he never think that it can b cockroch or ant just like that people saw only chart never see what is happening it gave 15% more then street expectations
I know few person who shorted on that day too and leter cried ohhhh my sl hit
TA is just to help think of a trade after keeping in mind everything
__________________
"Coin Always Makes Sound But The Currency Notes Are Always Silent So When Your Value Increases Keep Yourself Calm Silent"
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Always stay in stocks which have good liquidity. Even during consolidation the liquidity should be good.
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Had I been in your shoes, I would have kept a stop loss of 5110 (conservative) and 5180 (if aggressive). We are in high volatility environment and hence stop losses need to be wide. You are in the right side of the market and moving up would require a lot of buying. As of now, data still favors short trade.
15-Min Intraday Setup

Requirement – Candlestick Charts/Bar Charts with MACD (standard setting) and MA (50), EMA (20) and EMA (10)

Brief Introduction – I came across this setup while watching Greg Capra's seminar. I have modified this setup based on my trading experience.
I have added the MACD indicator for filtering out bad trades. The setup is simple to understand and implement. This setup is extremely effective to day trade and can get about 30-50 points on the Nifty. Please use this strategy on Nifty as I have researched this setup on it.

Trade Setup - Pick a stock which has run up quite a bit and is due for a correction. A typical setup occurs when the 50 MA slopes down (with angle between 20-30) and prices fall sharply. Eventually prices retrace back to 20 EMA or 10 EMA which also happens to be the 38 -50% retracement from the swing high. Enter a short position at this point and book profits according to your own appetite.

Example - In an example shown below, Nifty has run up quite a bit and has formed a new high. Prices start to drop off from this level. Over the period of two days, the slope of 50 SMA starts to curve down and the setup is formed. Prices fall off on 14th sharply and then retrace back to 20 EMA on the 15th. This level is also between 38.2 and 50% retracement level from swing high. MACD slope is negative and is about to turn below zero. Ideal setup for a short trade.

StopLoss - Stoploss if it breaches the 20 EMA and reaches the 50 SMA. Ideally, one can stop if the trade breaches 20 EMA.

Usage - This pattern can be used on 15Min charts for day.
..................Either keep a fixed target (range of 30 - 50) points or use trailing profit protection of price crossing and closing above the 10 EMA or 20 EMA in volatile conditions. Hope this helps.
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However I have two points to make.

Firstly, you are using Robert Miner's Dual time frame strategy. Now you haven't taken into consideration ABC correction phase and time retracements. In my opinion you are missing out on very important factors. You have to consider ABC correction wave and time retracement. It's like driving a car without steering and brakes. ABC correction phase (is steering; tells you whether market is in correction or trend) and time retracement (is brake; it tells you when to stop). Hence, I will encourage you to use these two important points in your trade. It's better to master a setup rather than mastering a part of it.

Secondly, since you are relying on fibonacci retracement, I would advise you to use trend lines with it. Using trendlines, fibonacci and candlesticks together give some of the most amazing trades. Once you master this setup, you will start buying much lower and will make larger gains. If I were you, I would have entered the trade once the prices would have retraced back to zone 'A' (15 minute chart keeping stop loss of 722).

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Originally Posted by raunakagarwal
Classical Gap Setup - Intraday Trades

Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart (Hourly Time Frame), Comparative Relative Strength (Base Index: Nifty)

Brief Introduction – Now, Let’s take time over understanding this. Markets are based on demand and supply. Gap down, as shown in one of the images below indicates that today the market opened lower. Hence, the bidding today started much lower than yesterday’s lows. This means traders are expecting the market to go down and hence are not even bidding near the levels of yesterday. This is classical sign of bearishness. Same goes for upward gap.

Concept of Relative Strength - First of all, do not confuse this with Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI is completely different. Comparative Relative strength is when a stock is compared with a base entity (let’s say an index; Nifty). By using Comparative Relative Strength we compare whether the stock is outperforming NIFTY or underperforming NIFTY. We will always want to buy stocks which are outperforming the index and will always want to short stocks which underperform NIFTY.

Trade Setup - This is one of the few setups which gives consistent returns in intraday. We enter a BUY position when there is an upward gap on Hourly time frame and the gap is sustained for one hour with the Comparative Relative strength sloping/pointing up. We enter a SHORT position when there is downward gap on Hourly time frame and the gap is sustained for one hour with Comparative Relative strength indicator sloping/pointing down.

Time and Validity - I trade this pattern only on Hourly charts. Out of 10, I must say 6 of the gap patterns are successful. If you get a gap up in a stock that has reversed or formed a base, then the pattern seems to work more efficiently. If you apply the same structure on daily charts, results can be even better.

Stoploss and Target - I have explained the stop loss in the charts. Targets may vary depending on the range of the stock.

Examples - I have given 2 very recent examples. One for Buy setp and one for short setup. Please refer below.

Note - Intraday trades are for very experienced traders. Please master some setup and paper trade it before putting real money
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2. Regarding Exit - You can use price crossing the 10EMA as exit. The more number of times you use this pattern, the more better exit strategy you'd come up with.

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wing and Positional trades are two different things. Hope you get my point.

Can you tell me why you entered shorts at such low level .
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If you have a positional trade then stick with your stop loss. Weekly momentum is still not positive. Whether it will get positive going forward, only time will tell. Whatever your reasoning was, just stick to your plans. It does not matter what I or other users say. Ultimately, market's will decide where it wants to go.
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M&M is in a very strong trend. Avoid shorting it. Also, the stochastic which you mention is in overbought zone now. It can remain there for a while and the stock can continue to remain up. Short weak stocks and Buy strong stocks. Avoid doing the opposite. Look for divergence in weak stocks.
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Trading Positive Divergence on Daily Time Frame

Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart, Stochastic Oscillator with standard settings (15,3). Overbought/Oversold conditions used as 80/20

Trade Setup – The basics of this setup is very easy to understand. If possible, monitors stocks which move in any kind of market. Typically these are high beta stocks. However, most of the stocks traded in Futures segment should do fine. What we are looking for is a stock making a new high whereas the stochastic highs forming a lower high. That means, stock makes a higher high and Indicator makes a Lower High. This is highlighted in red lines on price and Indicator. Now once the stock makes a new high, we need to see the indicator levels. If this indicator level forms a divergence and goes back into the neutral zone (that is below 80) then we short the stock, keeping the high as our stop loss. I usually target a 5-8% move. Remember, the divergences should occur over period of 1-2 Months.

Time Validity - I trade this pattern only on daily charts. However, it can work on any time frame. Please remember to adjust your targets accordingly. On daily time frame I use targets of 5-8%. On an hourly frame, this comes down to about 2-4%.

How to trade it - Refer to the chart below. Gujrat Ambuja made a high on 3/29/2010. It then rallied in April and made a new high on 29th April 2010. There was a distinct divergence visible on the charts. We now wait for our indicator to go into the neutral zone (that is, below 80). This happens on 30th April 2010. We get filled at 121.05 and keep a stop loss of 125.8. Over the next 10 sessions Gujrat Ambuja attains the target of 5-8%. The stock goes down much lower, but we maintain out targets and exit the trade.

Adding Positions - Divergence setups usually have very good risk to reward ratio. When trading these patterns with indicators, there is always a risk for the indicators to reverse and the price to move up. Hence, we need to take use of signals which are perfect. To do this, what we do is add one more lot once the stochastic indicator goes below 50. Usually indicator reversals for perfect signals rarely take place below 50. Hence we add position here. This is depicted by Blue horizontal lines.

Target - 5- 8%

STOPLOSS - Recent high of prices

.................................................. .
my 2 cents on this topic.. (specailly from the way i practice it)

- Price is the main source.. and indicators are only derivative of price. So start with price chart.
- I pay attention to price pivots (or swing points - these are points where price has changed the direction) on the chart.. So any analysis is based on price pivots first..
- to identify divergence, take any two price pivots, and take the oscillator values at that time, compare them and interpret them.

- If they are diverging, then u get a nice setup..Now go ahead and look at your precise entry rules to take a trade or wait for some more bars to develop

- And if you get Convergence.. it is another signal.. Not to anticipate reversal but confirmaion of trend continuation .. so trade that as well.

- while taking a trade on the basis of divergence, keep monitring that oscillator has not negated the prev reading.. (i.e. from oscillator making lower highs, it has made new higher high).

- I don't call 0.1 or 0.5 differnece in RSI/Stoch as a divergence.. Hence define your own limits to call it divergence.. (say atleast x% of difference). Similarly, the price peaks have to few bars away.. not just the 3rd or 4th bar.

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What I was meaning -

Example - say as per EOD chart we in good up trending and intra chart (say 5 mins TF) makes a negative divergence and after that it refuses to fall for sometime, but it does enough to give negative feeling to many. Then we would get a flying move when price crosses above the high. This is because, all would have gone short seeing the divergence! The way I look for entry with trigger above high. To judge whether we are in correct trade not, you will find price would move 15-20 points minimum in next 5-10 mins in favor.
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that as well.

When u don't see divergence, then ther is potential that u might see convergence.

Look at the left side of the chart that u posted. In Nov, there was small pause in Stoch around 60 level, and then it broke-out from that on stoch. at the same time price also made new high..
In Dec starting, again there was breakout in stoch as well as in price.
Only in Jan, we see some divergence coming in.
In Early March, prev div that we saw in Feb got negated, price made new high and so the stoch.. and mkt flew to new high after that.

Hope you can catch some pointers from this and bulid further on it .

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as mentioned by Raunak, just pick up one system and master it. If you want to trade Stoch, then don't miss the thread by Smart_trade on trading oscillator and continuation of that by raghavcc.
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For Swing Trades targets are usually between 6-8%.

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I wud like to share something from larry connors book... I have not experimented it yet and m still not sure on how this works... just sharing with you all as I happen to learn this strategy this weekend only...

1. Stock must be trading near or at 3 months low
2. Today;s volume must be double the 15 days average volume (more than double is better)
3. Either today, tomorrow or day after, stock must close above its open
4. When rule 3 is met within next 2 days, buy above the rule 3 day high
5. Initial stop loss should be placed lil below rule 3 day low.
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I am no analyst nor a guy worth giving an opinion on the mkts but I feel that every transaction that happens in the mkt is a clash of opinion / ideology (the buyer wants the stock price worth a buy and the seller feels the opposite).

We can all have differences of opinion and thats the charm of the mkts and also of life. But there are civilised ways of putting forward our differences. And also when we put forward a differing opinion then we become party to a difference. Then let the Mkts in due course of time decide who is correct instead of trying to pull someone down.

I am of the opinion that there are 3 kinds of people in this mkt. The first ones (in a pathetic minority in terms of numbers, but the ones who dictate the flow) draw the graphs, the second ones analyse them and the thrid ones (read morones like me) keep pestering the second ones for their opinions.

Now I do not know of anyone (and trust me I have worked with many analysts/operators) who are always correct about the mkts.
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EMA Cross Over Weekly Trades


Tools – Candlestick/Bar Chart (Daily), 150 EMA, 70 EMA and 20 EMA

Trade Setup – This is a trend trading system which gives enormous returns while trending markets and many whipsaws in non trending markets. Keeping our economy in view, this is going to be a profitable system in coming years as we are in an age of trending markets (either up or down). In this system we make use of 3 EMA; 150 EMA (Long term average), 70 EMA (Medium term Average) and 20 EMA (Short term Average).

Buy Setup – A typical buy setup occurs when the Short term average (20 EMA) crosses over the 70 EMA with the 70 EMA being above the 150 EMA. Same principle (but reverse) goes out for short trades.

Sell Setup – Exit the trade once the short term average (20 EMA) crosses the medium term average (70 EMA) form above.

Important Notes – To use this system effectively, exit the positions once you get returns in the range of 50-70%. Start offloading the positions once 50% return is on the cards. Go long once 20 EMA is above 70 EMA only if 70 EMA is more than 150. Exit the trade once the short term average (20 EMA) crosses the medium term average (70 EMA) form above. Results are positive but still not as per expectation I request you all to post your view to get better result.

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You can try and use some filters as ADX. Everything mentioned here is a start up. It is not a complete system. You can use a basic setup mentioned here and create a system of your own with various filters and rules.
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Let me tell you at very first place that I m not doubting your analysis or strategy.... Just want to understand (my way of improving my knowledge and skills is to discuss) on what analysis you feel United Phosphorus is good buy???

I cud find trendline support and 50 MA near 175... was that ur points of analysis?

I hope you are not offended with this... I apologize if you are offended...

~ Apurv

Apurv,

It is based on pure price structure. Forming higher highs and higher lows. 170-180 is a good support level as there are 3 peaks there. Stock is still positive. It should start doing well.

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I try not to take bad decisions. But they are inevitable.

Our Investment Firm is not too much into Fundamentals. It's more a trader oriented firm. Long term Investment decisions are based more on a LT Technical Model. No matter how good the Fundamental's are, if it doesn't move, one cannot generate money. Hence, when something starts to move, I then start getting inquisitive about it's fundamentals. More easier to follow this approach.
Your Analysis:

On 13th As you said it formed a Long Candle. Then on 14th and 15th it formed 2 black candles plus the RSI part you mentioned. Hence as you said, you squared off your position to buy it later.

Where you went wrong:

Look at the big picture first. Now I am going to reply in point terms. Look at the chart while reading it.

1. Look where I have written point 1. I have marked it at a long white candle which was the swing high in mid June. Now, lets come back to the 13th July candle. What has this candle actually done? It has surpassed the previous swing high made almost 20 days back. This entire thing happened in one session. This in itself is a very bullish sign. If ever you would have entertained thoughts of selling, it would only be below the previous swing high. That is, below 70.

2. Now see where I have written 2. I have circled it at a place where you sold because of black candle piercing. In my honest opinion, that is not a piercing pattern. The black candle started above the 13th July candle, but did not penetrate enough to be verified as a piercing trade. Please remember, piercing pattern is valid only when the black candle, starts above a previous bullish candle and penetrates deep into the white candle (closes atleast below the half of white candle).

3. I haven't marked the point 3rd on the chart. THis is because this is more of a concept. Usually when you have a long white candle, the middle part of it becomes strong support. Till the price does not penetrate the mid point of the long candle, do not entertain any thoughts to sell.

4. Make use of moving averages for trend determination. Not for trading decisions. Think about this. Does market care which moving average you look at??



What you should actually do:

1. Always look at the intermediate swing high support
2. When using candlesticks, be sure to apply the concept properly. Everyone struggles, even I did, but once you understand what works and what does not, things are going to be much easier.
3. Always and always look at bigger picture before deciding to buy or sell.
4. Most important, define what you want to do with the stock first. In my opinion, clutch auto should not be sold. It is a buy on dip stock as of now.


Hope this helps.

Tc
__________________
Raunak Agarwal
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The Following 13 Users Say Thank You to raunakagarwal For This Useful Post:
alroyraj (21st July 2010), Apurv7164 (16th July 2010), blackberry (19th July 2010), d_s_ramesh (17th July 2010), hills_5000 (17th July 2010), NFTRADER (17th July 2010), Reji (11th September 2010), scplindia (19th July 2010), stocks.murtaza (17th July 2010), Sunny1 (18th July 2010), vinst (18th July 2010), vmonu (17th July 2010), yashodhan (19th July 2010)

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#615 16th July 2010, 07:40 PM - Add Post To Favorites
raunakagarwal
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Re: Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

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Quote:
Originally Posted by stocks.murtaza
ooh la la ... how did I miss this thread ...

Great Work Raunak and others who have joined him ...

Keep it going ...




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Checklist:

Day prior to set up day 1 has to have close greater than close of four trading session earlier: Y

Set up
9 consecutive close less than close 4 trading days ago: Y

Set up Qualifier:
Ninth day's low less than 6th day's low: Y

Countdown
13 close less than/equal to low 2 trading days earlier: Y
Countdown qualifiers:
Close of day 8 of buy countdown less than close of day 5 of buy count down: Y
Close of day 8 of buy countdown less than close of day 3 of buy count down: Y
Close of day 13 is less than/equal to close of day 8: Y


Confirmation of entry
Price flip appear on day after 13 or before stop loss is triggered Y

Cancellation
An intraday high which is higher than the highest close in setup/countdown: N
An intraday high which is higher than the highest high in setup/countdown: N
Close higher than highest close: N
Close higher than highest high: N
Close higher than highest true high: N
Contradictory set up appeared: N
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I am back with the dilemma of life…. This time I m in need of guidance from the perspective of money management or trade management.

What do we do when trade is not going in favor of your analysis and neither it is hitting stop loss? Shall I get out of it with minor loss especially market is at the stage wherein it can have explosive move either side? I have been holding FDC for last 20 days or so and it is not hitting stop loss and neither moving upward. I m at loss of around 1 rs per share including brokerage… shall I get out of it?

I am a short term trader and usually hold position for couple of weeks... however, I have enuf capitalization to hold position further.

This wud help many other immatured traders like me... mostly we not so experienced traders struggle with money/trade management...

Need Help,
Apurv

Apurv,

As far as I go, if a stock is not hitting your stop loss, then it is definitely going in your favor. So just hold on to the position and see. FDC is low on volatility; both on day basis and Annual basis. Hence, it will give returns with respect to its volatility. Always consider the stocks volatility (historical) before deciding upon your level of expectation. Recently the stock is trading with good volatility.

FDC should come down (consolidate) little more before it starts to move forward. Keep SL of 85-86. The double top that you see on the daily frame is as of now a fake one. Let's see. I'll track this stock. Overall the stock is in a good bullish structure.

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When the number of correction candles increase, it does not always signify bears gaining control. In this case, even though the number of bearish candles are increasing, the stock is undergoing mere consolidation. The correct way to interpret this is that the "Cycle or the waiting period of the stock is increasing". This means, anyone now wishing to buy this stock, should be prepared for a little bit more holding time than the situation was on the previous minor cycle. Hope this helps.
I have been building up positions in Adani from 530 levels. Hence for swing perspective, I had a 40 point profit on average. I purely exited based on this. It may well go up and had it been for Investment purpose I would have held on to the stock. But for Swing trades I always have some % profit booking zone and Adani reached those zones. Moreover, I found Lupin on friday, and hence had built up huge futures positions in it. Was up by 4% today, so that kind of also begins to enter my profit zone.

So if you want a one line answer, here it is. "I prefer to buy at weakness and sell at strength". This is applicable to swing trades only.

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Nice piece of work. Frankly, I did not see so many things are in favor of this stock. I am more the "Feel" kind of player. If I "Feel" it is good, I just go for it. The stock is relatively weak and hence I am buying it. I'll sell it when it shows strength. Regarding stop losses, my rules are little different than what book teaches. I don't kind of look at previous swing lows that often. I monitor the prices continuously and from that I get a feel of whether the prices are going to slide or going to take support.

If you are talking from text book perspective, then I do feel the SL set by you is appropriate. On the whole Divergence part and ADX part mentioned by you does bring some value.

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I don't know how you pick a stock for swing trades. But for me, fundamentals don't form a part of swing trades. However, if this is the way you do it and are successful at it, then do not change your method.

As far as technicals are concerned, if markets remain healthy, ABAN should see levels of 925 and 948 for swing perspective. On very shorter time frame, the stock can also undergo consolidation. Hence, be patient.
This is by far the LONGESSSSTTT post I've seen on Traderji !
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
(for neon786)Being your journey to become a PRO -consistently earning from Market, i find 3 traders VVonteru,Raunak,TNSN2345-
can really develop u become a mature trader. By reading,it gives clarity in various market condition.So some of their guidance r copy-pasted.
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Something as a multi variate trader , i should emphasis.
1] Gap - to understand greed/fear of partcipant
2] After gap fillup , rational reaction by traders, continuation in gap direction or just opposite (exhaustion GAP)
3] In support zone-bullish engulf helps to take a reversal trade, whatever may media/fund manager say.
4] In an imp Resistance zone Price is not falling (holding)- it has high probability to break out. Buy nearby that zone after 1st pullback.
5] IN bearish scenario, a stock is not falling- that is the candidate for long haul
6] Studying individual 50 stocks of Nifty fundamentally/sector wise- helps how money is rotated in range market.
7] It takes good amount of time to master mindbeast (greed-fear-hope)
8] Discipline is the best approach for stop & position size management.
9] Uncertainity is the governing principle of market, so u have to be flexible in choosing suitable strategy (from multiple strategy depending upon market condition)with highest level Discipline for stop & position size management.
10] beware-Pro get frustrated by booking profit early-live with it.
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nothing more - this is my parting message.
(just watch stock72 & ST's comment - how they evolve successful trader)
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