Reliance shares about to explode

protrade

Well-Known Member
#1
The first quarter was quite an unpredictable one. There was an explicit ban on usage of Oxygen for all industrial purposes for most of the quarter, and Reliance had diverted significant amount of oxygen towards battling the second wave. So there was a lot of uncertainty on how much exactly this would have impacted their production and profits.

However - as the numbers point, the results haven’t had any impact whatsoever. The massive inventory gains because of run up in crude prices have more than compensated for any impact from the lockdown!

More importantly, Jio is now firing big time - hitting ₹3500 Crores Net profit in a quarter! And Retail, despite a tough operating environment, has managed almost a ₹1000 Crores profit!

After the AGM, there was some fear that the aggressive capex plans would once again load the company up with debt. That fear is clearly misplaced. A ₹75,000 crore capex plan is insignificant for a company that makes ₹13,000 Crores in a single quarter! That’s yet another worry off the stock’s back!

The JustDial acquisition is also extremely interesting one. Reliance is shifting aggressively to B2C game, and JustDial opens up the B2B2C market also for Reliance. It creates very interesting synergy with Jio and JioMart, as well. Obviously, JustDial will have supercharged growth under Reliance!

The news flow this week about CCI accusing Amazon of fraudulent misrepresentation, is also very positive for Reliance. Amazon is on a sticky wicket - if they pitch for a strong case against Future Retail and Reliance - they now risk a scenario where the CCI can revoke the approval for the original deal between Amazon and Future Retail.

And finally the icing on the cake is the Zomato IPO. Reliance has strung together a massive string of digital pearls, and the excellent performance of Zomato will lead to a valuation boost across all digital businesses. I think there has to be a meaningful increase in Jio Marketcap today, just based on Zomato IPO and Jio’s stellar profits.
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#2
Oh - and let’s not forget the biggest positive of the week!

The AGR verdict by the Supreme Court is a massive negative for Vodafone Idea, and somewhat of a negative for AirTel. And it’s a massive positive for Jio and Reliance.

The news flow is extremely favorable for Reliance as we begin this week!
 

Vmaster369

Well-Known Member
#4
I feel soon it will go to 1850 and below in few weeks .. Above 2150 only all those Big explosion can be excepted.

You want to make money never go in ambani script ... A lot of other good stocks in market ..

Dikhavo par na jao .. things be different when jio ipo if ever comes but untill then i am staying away from ambani stocks.
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#5
The next impetus in Telecom will come from 2G customers shifting to 4G.

2G is a massive burden for AirTel and Vodafone Idea - because of the double whammy of high spectrum usage because of spectral inefficiency of 2G and low ARPU from 2G customers!

The cheapest 4G device today costs over 4 years of 2G ARPU! But the even bigger problem for AirTel and Vi is that they don’t have the spectrum to absorb these 2G users in 4G! They will only get the spectrum freed up when ALL the 2G users have shifted!

The 4G JioPhone is expected to get 100M customers for Jio - and Jio has the spectrum to absorb these users.

But more interestingly, there is a parallel thing that’s likely to happen. We will inevitably move towards guidelines to prevent predatory pricing - to restore sanity in the market, and to protect AirTel and Vodafone Idea. This will become a reality within 12 months time!

This means, Jio ARPU will inevitably shoot up.

Every ₹10 rise in Jio ARPU will result in ₹5000 crores top line growth for Jio, and ₹3000 crore bottom line growth!

If Jio keeps ARPU low, other operators will die - which helps Jio. If Jio ARPU goes up, the profits will shoot up dramatically.

Reliance is in a very enviable position in Telecom!
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#6
Reliance has finally started moving - but the stock is still quite undervalued at under 25 times forward earnings.

A separately listed Jio would be worth near $150B by itself!
 

Vmaster369

Well-Known Member
#7
lol reliance went to 2146 then crash whatever be reason haha lost case against Amazon
 

newtrader101

Well-Known Member
#8
The first quarter was quite an unpredictable one. There was an explicit ban on usage of Oxygen for all industrial purposes for most of the quarter, and Reliance had diverted significant amount of oxygen towards battling the second wave. So there was a lot of uncertainty on how much exactly this would have impacted their production and profits.

However - as the numbers point, the results haven’t had any impact whatsoever. The massive inventory gains because of run up in crude prices have more than compensated for any impact from the lockdown!

More importantly, Jio is now firing big time - hitting ₹3500 Crores Net profit in a quarter! And Retail, despite a tough operating environment, has managed almost a ₹1000 Crores profit!

After the AGM, there was some fear that the aggressive capex plans would once again load the company up with debt. That fear is clearly misplaced. A ₹75,000 crore capex plan is insignificant for a company that makes ₹13,000 Crores in a single quarter! That’s yet another worry off the stock’s back!

The JustDial acquisition is also extremely interesting one. Reliance is shifting aggressively to B2C game, and JustDial opens up the B2B2C market also for Reliance. It creates very interesting synergy with Jio and JioMart, as well. Obviously, JustDial will have supercharged growth under Reliance!

The news flow this week about CCI accusing Amazon of fraudulent misrepresentation, is also very positive for Reliance. Amazon is on a sticky wicket - if they pitch for a strong case against Future Retail and Reliance - they now risk a scenario where the CCI can revoke the approval for the original deal between Amazon and Future Retail.

And finally the icing on the cake is the Zomato IPO. Reliance has strung together a massive string of digital pearls, and the excellent performance of Zomato will lead to a valuation boost across all digital businesses. I think there has to be a meaningful increase in Jio Marketcap today, just based on Zomato IPO and Jio’s stellar profits.
Well it did move 32% over 77 days. Congrats.
 

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#10
I think now is the right time to buy Reliance shares. The market is going through ups and downs on a regular basis. But Blue chip stocks like Reliance will always be a valuable addition to our portfolio.
 

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