Previous Tops and Corrections!

[SGM]

Hello,

Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to ..

Is historical price movement relevant for the future? if yes can we learn from the past?

What can we learn from the historical falls during the past few bull runs...

I was looking at the past 3 falls in the last 6 yrs...

Height of bull market: March 2000: PE of 27.4
Bottom of market: Oct 2001: PE of 13.1
Time from height to bottom: 19 months

Height of bull market: March 2002: PE of 19
Bottom of market: May 2003: PE of 10.9
Time from height to bottom: 14 months

Height of bull market: March 2004: PE of 21.6
Bottom of market: Jun 2004: PE of 12.1
Time from height to bottom: 3 months

Height of bull market: May 2006: PE of 20.5
Bottom of market: PE of ??
Time from height to bottom: ??

Did we really see the bottom in 10-12 sessions ?? or we should give it a month or 2 before bottom fishing?

To take the discussion forward I would like know about

What is the phase of market we are in currently?

Please share your views here.

Regards
Sanjay

PS: I find PE values more relevant for value interpretation than index values which can be misleading.

 

[amitt29]

For immediate uptrend i think Thursday wud be nice.
PS good to see senior member tag on me.

 

[SGM]

For immediate uptrend i think Thursday wud be nice.
PS good to see senior member tag on me.

Hello amit,

I completely agree with your second line

Regards
Sanjay

 

[Traderji]

PS: I find PE values more relevant for value interpretation than index values which can be misleading.

PE values of the index are a great indicator for investors.

 

[mahmeds2000]

PE values of the index are a great indicator for investors.

Respected Traderji,
What is the current PE value of index? How to calculate it?

Height of bull market: March 2000: PE of 27.4
Bottom of market: Oct 2001: PE of 13.1
Time from height to bottom: 19 months

Height of bull market: March 2002: PE of 19
Bottom of market: May 2003: PE of 10.9
Time from height to bottom: 14 months

Height of bull market: March 2004: PE of 21.6
Bottom of market: Jun 2004: PE of 12.1
Time from height to bottom: 3 months

Height of bull market: May 2006: PE of 20.5
Bottom of market: PE of ??
Time from height to bottom: ??

Also looking at the data given above by the Mr. SGM i have concluded the following point. I wanted to share it over here

1. Time from hieght to bottom decreasing so this time market fall could not be last for a long period of time (may be we r already bottomed out at 8800).
2. If u see the difference b/w bull and bottom PE it is 14.3, 8.1, 9.5 so u can see when PE is very high fall is also more and this time PE is 20.5 so fall may be b/w -8.5 to -9.00 (I don't know how much we have fallen) which is a PE of 12 or 11.5 (I don't the current PE).

What Seniors say.

Thanking You
wrgrds
Ahmed

 

[SGM]

PE values of the index are a great indicator for investors.

Hello Traderji,

Thanks for your reply. Sirji, its such a nice feeling to get feedback from you. I would like to thank you for providing all of us in the Tradeji Community such an excellent platform to enrich ourselves in so many ways.

Regards
Sanjay Mehta

 

[SGM]

Respected Traderji,
What is the current PE value of index? How to calculate it?

Hello Ahmed

Please chk out the link

http://www.bseindia.com/about/st_key/index_ratios.asp

1. Time from hieght to bottom decreasing so this time market fall could not be last for a long period of time (may be we r already bottomed out at 8800).
2. If u see the difference b/w bull and bottom PE it is 14.3, 8.1, 9.5 so u can see when PE is very high fall is also more and this time PE is 20.5 so fall may be b/w -8.5 to -9.00 (I don't know how much we have fallen) which is a PE of 12 or 11.5 (I don't the current PE).

I wish it were so simple, I also wish the bottom thingy is already done, and we get back to happy old days with our old routine of buying, holding for few sessions and selling for profits

But as they say, If Wishes were Horses, ........

The question, still remains are we in an accumalation phase or distribution phase?

Regards
Sanjay Mehta