how is risked amount constant ?
percentage is constant but not the amount .
when you are missing this basic understanding of concept , its unlikely that you will understand the bigger picture for now
as al brooks says , when you trade , you buy or sell .......right?
who is on other side of trade who is buying or selling contra to you ?
is it likely that its a small time trader taking contra trade against you ? ..............most likely its an institution ,an institution will never take a trade against you if you have a probability of 80% winning , it also means that any institution or market will almost stop trading the moment its understood that they are only likely 20% right on their trade , because institution trade and make market throughout the day non stop ..............its not about only your trade , its about probability on either side being high at any given point in time .
so the logical answer is that at any given point in time , even if your trades are based on a monkey throwing dart on bullseye ..............or whenever monkey misses dart on bullseye , the maxiumum probabilty of our win is no more than 60% , and no less then 40% , whenever this equation changes , you will see highest type of volatility in the market , or big jump or breakdown , until markets reach a point where again the probabilities are , 60-40% band .
i am no expert on this but its logical to me as written in some an albrooks book also , had read on net , i think recently we had an example on 24 august when ITM calls and puts didnt trade for 15-30 minutes early in trade due to probability mismatch ..................i couldnt believe that trades were not happening inspite of price differences of as low as .05 tick in nifty calls and puts for minimum of 15 minutes .
check out the charts on 24 august for ITM/ATM calls and puts and when it started trading that day